doctorwu
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2016
- Messages
- 1,946
- Reaction score
- 168
- Points
- 0
-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Festival Plate 2019
- Thread starter mayo
- Start date
Quevega
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) Self-proclaimed
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 21,159
- Reaction score
- 5,760
- Points
- 83
I know......
they must still have cheltenham in mind although may have just been in case he fell at first today or something.
Dr Phoenix who was pulled up today is also still entered in both, but i cashed my antepost bet at 50-1 on Dr Phoenix to be on safe side.
doctorwu
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2016
- Messages
- 1,946
- Reaction score
- 168
- Points
- 0
Quevega
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) Self-proclaimed
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 21,159
- Reaction score
- 5,760
- Points
- 83
jonthehammer
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2015
- Messages
- 1,807
- Reaction score
- 165
- Points
- 0
Well they have royally messed up Happy Divas season by running her last weekend when unseating. Stewart Machin told me in Chester on Wednesday that Kerry Lee told him before Xmas that this race is the plan, Stewart could not understand for the life of him why she ran her last weekend. A right mess up.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Hard to find too many cases in this race for me still. Not sold on the favourite despite obvious claims. At the prices i'm looking at taking him on and i'd slightly question him at the finish. Now he might be "a graded horse in a handicap" as the previews suggest and do a 'Road to Respect' where he just kicks on clear and doesn't have to to get into a battle and if that's the case so be it but i'm looking elsewhere.
Drawn towards a couple of the foot of the weights, both hopefully sneaking in at bottom weight at todays declarations. First off...
Eamon au Cnoic
Ran in the Ultima last year a 28/1 shot. Ran a good race and led the field going to 3 out but made a mistake where he then faded pretty tamely in 9th but clearly didn't stay the 3m1. Came back to the track in November for the BetVictor Gold Cup to finish 5th. The finishing positioning is slightly misleading as only 6 finished that day but he massively outran his 50/1 odds and he's a horse who would appreciate softer ground (good, good to soft that day) so the forecast would look to suit
In December at Exeter he finished 6th in a race won by Siruh du Lac, the 8/1 2nd fav in this race. SdL was in receipt of 7lbs that day and easily beat him by 21 lengths. There would however now be a 12lb swing in the weights between the pair in this race and the selection has had a wind op since. Doesn't of course always work but a lot of his runs and weak finishes suggested that may help and it looked to do the trick when he beat Capeland next time out in February. It would have been a good confidence booster and a win that was needed to get him into this race.
It's been slim pickings backing Pipe horses over the last few years and it's not a yard I particularly like however this race appears to be one of the few he can still have a good crack at at the festival. Had a fine record in the race between 2010 - 2014 winning it 3 times between that period but even since that win he's managed:
2018 - 5th
2017 - 5th
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 2nd
Would have hoped for slightly bigger prices that the 25/1 (WH) or 20/1 (NRNB) but I think he could continue on Pipe's decent record here.
He would need 8 to come out to get in the race but that does look likely and 137 is the predicted cut off. Also holds an entry in the Grand Annual (again borderline to get in) and also for a handicap chase at Kempton this Saturday but that is surely a backup at Cheltenham is so touch and go for a run.
And the other horse - King's Odyssey
He's in the same position as the above in being on 137 so needing some luck to get in. Bigger price of 33/1. Trainer has said he will run if soft ground which looks to be the case. He's 10 years old but relatively lightly raced for his age (only 14 chase starts) and has a good record at the track 1F0333. He's very much a handicapper with a clear ceiling. Anything in the 140's plus he tends to struggle. He gets in here off 137 though and when you look at his runs in and around that mark:
140 and below: 31133326
and at the track:
2016 - 139 - 1st / 12
2017 - 140 - 3rd / 10
2018 - 139 - 3rd / 14
2018 - 139 - 3rd / 22 (this race last year)
Runs off 137 for the first time since before that win at the track in 2016
Will wait and see if declared on both before getting involved and hopefully getting 5 places...
Drawn towards a couple of the foot of the weights, both hopefully sneaking in at bottom weight at todays declarations. First off...
Eamon au Cnoic
Ran in the Ultima last year a 28/1 shot. Ran a good race and led the field going to 3 out but made a mistake where he then faded pretty tamely in 9th but clearly didn't stay the 3m1. Came back to the track in November for the BetVictor Gold Cup to finish 5th. The finishing positioning is slightly misleading as only 6 finished that day but he massively outran his 50/1 odds and he's a horse who would appreciate softer ground (good, good to soft that day) so the forecast would look to suit
In December at Exeter he finished 6th in a race won by Siruh du Lac, the 8/1 2nd fav in this race. SdL was in receipt of 7lbs that day and easily beat him by 21 lengths. There would however now be a 12lb swing in the weights between the pair in this race and the selection has had a wind op since. Doesn't of course always work but a lot of his runs and weak finishes suggested that may help and it looked to do the trick when he beat Capeland next time out in February. It would have been a good confidence booster and a win that was needed to get him into this race.
It's been slim pickings backing Pipe horses over the last few years and it's not a yard I particularly like however this race appears to be one of the few he can still have a good crack at at the festival. Had a fine record in the race between 2010 - 2014 winning it 3 times between that period but even since that win he's managed:
2018 - 5th
2017 - 5th
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 2nd
Would have hoped for slightly bigger prices that the 25/1 (WH) or 20/1 (NRNB) but I think he could continue on Pipe's decent record here.
He would need 8 to come out to get in the race but that does look likely and 137 is the predicted cut off. Also holds an entry in the Grand Annual (again borderline to get in) and also for a handicap chase at Kempton this Saturday but that is surely a backup at Cheltenham is so touch and go for a run.
And the other horse - King's Odyssey
He's in the same position as the above in being on 137 so needing some luck to get in. Bigger price of 33/1. Trainer has said he will run if soft ground which looks to be the case. He's 10 years old but relatively lightly raced for his age (only 14 chase starts) and has a good record at the track 1F0333. He's very much a handicapper with a clear ceiling. Anything in the 140's plus he tends to struggle. He gets in here off 137 though and when you look at his runs in and around that mark:
140 and below: 31133326
and at the track:
2016 - 139 - 1st / 12
2017 - 140 - 3rd / 10
2018 - 139 - 3rd / 14
2018 - 139 - 3rd / 22 (this race last year)
Runs off 137 for the first time since before that win at the track in 2016
Will wait and see if declared on both before getting involved and hopefully getting 5 places...
Sirah Du Lac 13/2 10.11 beat Dusky Lark 1 1/4 giving 1lb
Doitforthevillage 20/1 10.10 beat Dusky Lark 7L giving 3lb
WH are going 5 places.
Doitforthevillage 20/1 10.10 beat Dusky Lark 7L giving 3lb
WH are going 5 places.
Cyrname -miles to Doitforthevillage - but Happy Diva 1/2L 3rd
Happy Diva won a listed chase next time out, UR when 2nd fav for a class 3
Middle_Of_March
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2018
- Messages
- 3,820
- Reaction score
- 1,131
- Points
- 83
Does anyone actually really fancy something for this?
I’ll have a bet on it because it’s the festival and I’m there but I can’t find a single play atm. I’ll look again tonight but as it stands, I’ve got absolutely nothing that interests me. Maybe Kalondra each way if I absolutely had to right now.
I’ll have a bet on it because it’s the festival and I’m there but I can’t find a single play atm. I’ll look again tonight but as it stands, I’ve got absolutely nothing that interests me. Maybe Kalondra each way if I absolutely had to right now.
Jono and BigChaaang better than Hugh....
EAMON AN CNOIC might be able to give David Pipe a fourth win in the last ten years in the 2m4f handicap chase (4.10).
His most recent race at Chepstow appeared to be a good advertisement for the benefits of wind operations, as both he and the runner-up Capeland, who pulled clear of the remainder, were having their first runs since surgery.
Eamon An Cnoic was going away at the finish over a trip (2m) that is probably short of his best. It’s interesting that Capeland takes his chance in the opening Grade One JLT Novices’ Chase, as although he was giving the winner 13lb at Chepstow, Eamon An Cnoic was well on top at the finish in a race where both shaped well.
Eamon An Cnoic has shaped creditably on both previous starts at Cheltenham (both on the Old Course), doing too much too soon and not getting home over 3m1f in the Ultima Handicap Chase last year (led until 3 out), and then 5th in a valuable Grade Three event in November, a race whose form was franked when the first three home all finished in the first four in a similar event on the New Course the following month.
This is obviously a really competitive race, but if the wind surgery has done the trick then he still looks well handicapped off a 7lb higher mark than at Chepstow.
EAMON AN CNOIC might be able to give David Pipe a fourth win in the last ten years in the 2m4f handicap chase (4.10).
His most recent race at Chepstow appeared to be a good advertisement for the benefits of wind operations, as both he and the runner-up Capeland, who pulled clear of the remainder, were having their first runs since surgery.
Eamon An Cnoic was going away at the finish over a trip (2m) that is probably short of his best. It’s interesting that Capeland takes his chance in the opening Grade One JLT Novices’ Chase, as although he was giving the winner 13lb at Chepstow, Eamon An Cnoic was well on top at the finish in a race where both shaped well.
Eamon An Cnoic has shaped creditably on both previous starts at Cheltenham (both on the Old Course), doing too much too soon and not getting home over 3m1f in the Ultima Handicap Chase last year (led until 3 out), and then 5th in a valuable Grade Three event in November, a race whose form was franked when the first three home all finished in the first four in a similar event on the New Course the following month.
This is obviously a really competitive race, but if the wind surgery has done the trick then he still looks well handicapped off a 7lb higher mark than at Chepstow.
BigChaang
Sha Tin Expert and FJ Patron
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2017
- Messages
- 5,449
- Reaction score
- 788
- Points
- 83
Unbelievable ... I definitely Fancied Syrah du lac as my No 1 choice for this , And i added Janika ,
after the preview night word , Posted above - Eamon an cnoc , and did an each way single today,
along with Spirit of the games . So 1,2,3,4. In a bloody handicap !! . Don't Believe it.:highly_amused:
after the preview night word , Posted above - Eamon an cnoc , and did an each way single today,
along with Spirit of the games . So 1,2,3,4. In a bloody handicap !! . Don't Believe it.:highly_amused: