Favourites ?

[Might_Bite]

The FatJockey Bookie has ADV as a 1/7 poke and strengthening :greedy_dollars:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

They all win. They obviously won’t but if you asked me to predict who wins all of those races they’d be my answers. Which is a bit of a sticky one for the point of the thread.

Most likely to be beat are Allaho by not running, Jonbon by the Mullins brigade and GDM by potentially running elsewhere.

 

[Lobos]

If Q is correct (which is very likely) that on average 4 of those 10 will win (I'd say at least 3 won't even make the races) then there's going to be plenty of crying imojis on here. That said, with most having built very good books, plenty will still fall on the winners at big prices.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

If Q is correct (which is very likely) that on average 4 of those 10 will win (I'd say at least 3 won't even make the races).

Didn’t you predict 8 would win ?
And I sure I saw someone say all 10…

 

[Lobos]

Didn’t you predict 8 would win ?
And I sure I saw someone say all 10…

I did yes but didn't factor in non runners which will clearly happen. That'll bring it down to at most 5 and one or two I wasn't overly excited about. Q will be very close with his 4 prediction......... unfortunately!! If not, it'll be a complete bookies bloodbath!!!

 

[archie]

Even the bookies think that only 3 will win.

 

[Lobos]

Even the bookies think that only 3 will win.

Yep. They've got their snipers out Archie for those odds on shots as well.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I did yes but didn't factor in non runners which will clearly happen. That'll bring it down to at most 5 and one or two I wasn't overly excited about. Q will be very close with his 4 prediction......... unfortunately!! If not, it'll be a complete bookies bloodbath!!!

Don’t feel bad Lobos, as I said I’m sure someone went all ten !
There’ll be shocks, there always are…

 

[Kevloaf]

Didn’t you predict 8 would win ?
And I sure I saw someone say all 10…

That was me, as a joke :loyal:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

That was me, as a joke :loyal:

Cue the ten fold landing and you missing out on the acca...

 

[Quevega]

A bit of fun for us to look back on in the week before Cheltenham, and the aftermath:crushed:

Sadly, we have no competition champion this year after the sad loss of Diamond Geezer.

I am nowhere near as generous with my time as he was so this is just for fun and discussion. And I'll refer back to it as and when it suits my narrative :highly_amused::loyal:

This year there appears to be some very short priced Favourites already in place, and some of these after just the 1 run in public this season and some haven't run at all.:dispirited:



In 10 of the races we already have Favourites shorter than 2-1, and 3 odds on Favourites amongst them.

I'll list them with the current general price available, and if anyone wants to list the ones that you think will .............


Win or Lose



Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4


So - if you want to cut and paste these and then simply put a W or L next to them we'll see what the consensus is.

As a hint I'd say with the odd non runner included that the long term stats show that probably only around 4 will emerge victorious in the races they're currently favourite in.
If anyone wants to add reasons why then that'll be good.
I'll start it off in a minute.

PS.
And isn't it a bit shit that 10 of the race already have favourites at below 2-1 ?:sleeping:

Little update. On general prices of the 10 favourites

Facile Vega 4/5 now 7/2 and No longer favourite
Jonbon 11/8 now 11/8
Constitution Hill 4/11 now 2/7
Gaillard du mesnil 6/4 now 6/4

Energumene 8/11 now 6/4
Delta Work 7/4 now 11/10

Allaho 7/4 now 11/10

Lossiemouth 6/4 now 6/4
GDC 13/8 now 6/4
ADV 6/4 now 13/8

Not much change at all and 9 remain favourites after the random market move for Energumene after yesterdays result.
It was looking as though all 10 would still be looking solid enough and favourites after a month when 6 of them ran.
But Facile Vega's jockey ruined it by going too fast.
Jonbons' main challenger has arrived and it being El Fabiolo and in the manner of which he did it, means Jonbon's price remains intact.

All still standing though, which is a result. :encouragement:

 

[archie]

Facile Vega (Supreme) L
Jonbon (Arkle) L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) L
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) L

Energumene (Champion chase) W
Delta Work (Cross country) W

Allaho Ryanair W

Lossiemouth (Triumph) L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) L

Not looking quite so controversial now.

 

[Quevega]

Not looking quite so controversial now.

Think it was the third one down that pricked ears archie ! :highly_amused:
The rest were quite commonplace.

 

[Lobos]

Think it was the third one down that pricked ears archie ! :highly_amused:
The rest were quite commonplace.

Even that one after State Man's performance yesterday doesn't look so controversial now.

 

[AaronLad]

Even that one after State Man's performance yesterday doesn't look so controversial now.

Get away with yourself lobos.
on the race form we have, we have honeysuckle beating epatante in their most recent meeting by 3 1/2.
Constitution hill beats epatante 12 lengths (also 17 but we'll go with the 12)
state man needs to find 4 lengths minimum on a constituition hill who hasn't been asked any serious question on the 12 lengths beating he gave epatante.
on form he has no chance.

 

[Lobos]

Get away with yourself lobos.
on the race form we have, we have honeysuckle beating epatante in their most recent meeting by 3 1/2.
Constitution hill beats epatante 12 lengths (also 17 but we'll go with the 12)
state man needs to find 4 lengths minimum on a constituition hill who hasn't been asked any serious question on the 12 lengths beating he gave epatante.
on form he has no chance.

No chance is very strong. State Man has made huge improvement and win easily yesterday with plenty in hand. I'd imagine he'd close the ratings gap between him and CH a few more pounds and there looks to be more to come. I'd give him a chance albeit a small one. It's definitely not as cut and dried as people think.

 

[AaronLad]

No chance is very strong. State Man has made huge improvement and win easily yesterday with plenty in hand. I'd imagine he'd close the ratings gap between him and CH a few more pounds and there looks to be more to come. I'd give him a chance albeit a small one. It's definitely not as cut and dried as people think.

Plenty in hand with a couple of smacks to boot.
He gave his best yesterday.
He can improve again, he has with every run.
But he aint getting anywhere near constitution hill, and you know it :cheerful:

 

[Lobos]

Plenty in hand with a couple of smacks to boot.
He gave his best yesterday.
He can improve again, he has with every run.
But he aint getting anywhere near constitution hill, and you know it :cheerful:

Put it this way, CH is a decent winner for me but I'll definitely be covering him with State Man. I'd be silly not to.

 

[Might_Bite]

That's the forum VALUE trixie

Delta Work - 2/1
Galopin - 13/8
Allegorie De Vassey - 9/4

24.64/1 BET365

This nearly worked very nicely indeed. Still returned a healthy profit of course and beat SP by some margin overall.
Might be some method in doing a similar thing next year to assess the shorties

 

[Quevega]

A bit of fun for us to look back on in the week before Cheltenham, and the aftermath:crushed:

Sadly, we have no competition champion this year after the sad loss of Diamond Geezer.

I am nowhere near as generous with my time as he was so this is just for fun and discussion. And I'll refer back to it as and when it suits my narrative :highly_amused::loyal:

This year there appears to be some very short priced Favourites already in place, and some of these after just the 1 run in public this season and some haven't run at all.:dispirited:



In 10 of the races we already have Favourites shorter than 2-1, and 3 odds on Favourites amongst them.

I'll list them with the current general price available, and if anyone wants to list the ones that you think will .............


Win or Lose



Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4


So - if you want to cut and paste these and then simply put a W or L next to them we'll see what the consensus is.

As a hint I'd say with the odd non runner included that the long term stats show that probably only around 4 will emerge victorious in the races they're currently favourite in.
If anyone wants to add reasons why then that'll be good.
I'll start it off in a minute.

PS.
And isn't it a bit shit that 10 of the race already have favourites at below 2-1 ?:sleeping:​






I think 6 of the 10 favourites at Christmas won in the end, which I think is above average.
And 9 turned up in the races they were intended for, only Allaho (predictably) missed his race.
9/10 getting a run is excellent in a year when we were blessed with very few absentees once the season began, and especially in the run up.

The prices (can't be arsed to get the exact SP's) look very similar to the prices around after Xmas and immediately after the Dublin also.
One or two had a wobble and most were available at bigger at some point though.

I think the isn't it a bit shit comment turned out better than hoped as most had a creditable challenger or two on the day, so the prices held.
On another occasion one or two may have gone big odds on, but thankfully this never happened and the festival was one of the best I can ever remember on the track.
The field sizes were a very pleasant surprise.
And I'm glad the crowds were down also, serves them right for being greedy.

Although I opted to go to Southwell races for the Tuesday evening and even though only 50 people were there - there was no fucking internet :boxing::highly_amused:

Did anyone get the correct 6 ?
Went through first three pages then got bored.:cheerful: