Favourites ?

[Quevega]

A bit of fun for us to look back on in the week before Cheltenham, and the aftermath:crushed:

Sadly, we have no competition champion this year after the sad loss of Diamond Geezer.

I am nowhere near as generous with my time as he was so this is just for fun and discussion. And I'll refer back to it as and when it suits my narrative :highly_amused::loyal:

This year there appears to be some very short priced Favourites already in place, and some of these after just the 1 run in public this season and some haven't run at all.:dispirited:



In 10 of the races we already have Favourites shorter than 2-1, and 3 odds on Favourites amongst them.

I'll list them with the current general price available, and if anyone wants to list the ones that you think will .............


Win or Lose



Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4


So - if you want to cut and paste these and then simply put a W or L next to them we'll see what the consensus is.

As a hint I'd say with the odd non runner included that the long term stats show that probably only around 4 will emerge victorious in the races they're currently favourite in.
If anyone wants to add reasons why then that'll be good.
I'll start it off in a minute.

PS.
And isn't it a bit shit that 10 of the race already have favourites at below 2-1 ?:sleeping:

 

[Quevega]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 L
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W

Just the 3 for me :highly_amused:​

I love facile, however I've always been inclined to try and tak short priced bumper winners on, and there are at least a couple of dangers that might just pip him.
Jonbon will be beaten by the best of the Irish, but this might be a close call, as I also really like him.
Constitution Hill is the best horse I've ever seen.
GDM might go elsewhere and if he does turn up here I don't think he deserves that price.

I love Energumene, but Edwardstone looks a tool and I think he may beat him.
Getting Delta beat is more difficult but I suppose this is my only hopeful guess based on my punting, as I'd like Galvin to run and beat him for my betting purposes.
Not sure Allaho will turn up and will be more vulnerable than usual if he does.
Lossiemouth looks as promising a mare as I've seen. The other mare also looks very good but the triumph course probably won't suit her.
GDC - It's a Gold cup, and once again, as much as I rate him, the race looks deep enough.
ADV looks a future champion and I'm 90% sure she'll run here and 99% sure she'd win if she did.

 

[Eggs]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W


….I’ve not got any position at all on Energumene, Allaho, Delta Work & ADV. Prices much too short to start with although I missed the boat with ADV.

I’m more in the ‘hope’ rather than ‘expect’ they win camp for FV & Jonbon.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - NR

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W

4 for me.
What's ridiculous is that 10 weeks out we have ten favourites quoted less than 2/1...
​

 

[Quevega]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - NR

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W

4 for me.
What's ridiculous is that 10 weeks out we have ten favourites quoted less than 2/1...
​

I know, it's the reason why I did it.
The racing has to be more competitive, otherwise it'll dwindle in it's appeal.

 

[TCH29]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L/NR

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W​

5 for me. Facile Vega I found the hardest to call. Was a bit 50/50 on that one. Allaho I fear may not run and if he does, not being 100%.

 

[Exar Essay]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W - Think he's poor value at this stage and isn't as good as some make out, but still think he's the best in the race.
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L - Rightful fav but, to some extent, only because we don't know Willie's best. Think he'll be beaten by Townend's mount whoever that might be.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W - I have nothing to say
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L - Seemingly "stagnant" at around the 150-155 RPR mark. He'll be there or there abouts, but can see him being beat by a classier animal e.g. Gerri Colombe, or even a Bronn type. Terrible value.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 L - Rightful fav. Wouldn't bet against him, but this is a guessing game. If Blue Lord runs here ... I think he could really stick it to Energumene. Also, Arkle winners in QMCC's ... two genuine contenders right there.
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W - Just wins. Unless he doesn't (Galvin)

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L - Turns up for his first run of the season. Stinks the gaff out on his first run of the season like always. Runs to mid 160's and get's smoked by something that's never run better than 165 before

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L - It's soft, heavy in places on the Friday and Jupiter du Gite run's like Goshen mk II only he's got smaller shoes on so stays upright and wins 8 lengths.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W - Beast
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 L - Willie diverts her to the BANC and this is the worst race on the card for the second year running. ​

 

[Zachx02]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W​

 

[BagOfHammers]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W​

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W​​

 

[HesTheOne]

Facile Vega (Supreme) W - Can’t ignore how bullish the Mullins camp are and despite not being super super impressive he’ll be some beast come spring in a weak enough division

Jonbon (Arkle) L - Best jumper at the minute and rightly so favourite - will take a lot to beat him but again, I can see Mullins contingent being screwed to the last to show up on the day and go 1 better with some clever tactics

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) W

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) L - Going with the L mainly due to the BANC option and the fact so much has been made of this decision it would be of course one to not come in on the day..

Energumene (Champion chase) W - 2 horse race at the minute really, I’d side with him all day

Delta Work (Cross country) L - no strong opinion but certainly a race to throw a spanner in the works

Allaho (Ryanair) L - Slight doubts on his participation, fingers crossed he will come through but need some of these favs overturned

Lossiemouth (Triumph) W - few still left to show their cards but I really like her and believe she’ll go against the prev trend for Triumph

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) W - top of the market is not super strong and again siding with how bullish Mullins camp have been for GDC

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) W​ - Can’t see her being bet, good enough to go take on any of the geldings and will dominate her own sex

 

[Big Bucks]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W - He's the best we have seen so far, but still needs to improve imo to win, I think he will.

Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W - I think he's the best we have seen so far. Mullins could easily have 1 or multiple chances here who could take him on, but at this moment in time, my likely winner!

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11W - Looks like a freak!

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W - Hoping he goes here, if so he wins imo.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W - Edwardatone could give him something to think about, but I really like Energuemne and back to back for me.

Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W - Depends on opposition, out of all the current shorties I think he's actually a worthy shortie, no surprises along the way he's the banker!

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L - going to be controversial and go against him! Due to the nature of his wellbeing.

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W - Could be a good year for the Juveniles, but again the best we have seen so far and my likely opinion of the winner.

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L - like FV had to weigh up a few things and chopped and changed. Think he's very good and could be a machine, just think tactics could play a big part in this race, and will be taking him on!

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W - If she runs here she wins imo.

I went for 8 to win, and even had to really talk myself out of the other 2! I know its never that straight forward or we would all be rolling in it! Surprises, upsets, and weird shit can go down! Would I back them at the prices they are now is a different question all together though!​

 

[robith]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W​

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 W or N/R

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W​

 

[Dandrew99]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5

Not overly taken with him so far, but equally I'm not sure what there is that is going to beat him. Plus the bullishness from Mullins makes me think there's plenty more to come...

Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8

I think he's only favourite because we don't know which of the Mullins trio is coming here, plus the lack of opposition in England will work against him. Happy to take him on

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11

Where's the goat emoji?

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4

Going to cop out and leave it orange... do think he wins if he goes here, I just don't think he will go here...

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11

Think he's miles clear of the rest, solid favourite.

Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4

If he repeats his performance last year he should win unless something else emerges. Very much hoping Galvin puts him in his place, he's very inconsistent though so I'd be taking him on regardless.

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4

Not an ideal prep at all, he's often needed his first run of the season too which he may not get at all this year. Big ask to come straight to Cheltenham and win a third Ryanair (Galopin might scare a few off from the gold cup too)

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4

Looks the business, but mares don't do very well in the race. Just more of a gut feeling than anything that logical, maybe because I don't have her backed...

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8

See Constitution Hill...

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4​

Looks way better than any other mare out there at the minute. Needs something to come out of the woodwork to even make this a race worth watching IMO.

 

[Kevloaf]

Constitution Hill is the best horse I've ever seen.

Well that's nonsense.

I'll go for all 10 winning. Bookies justified by these short prices and they get squeezed even further in future and our entire future is under threat




He's destroyed them from halfway!!!

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W
​

 

[Glasgow Ronnie]

]Facile Vega (Supreme) W
Jonbon (Arkle) W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) L

Energumene (Champion chase) W
Delta Work (Cross country) L

Allaho Ryanair W

Lossiemouth (Triumph) W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) W

 

[archie]

Facile Vega (Supreme) L
Jonbon (Arkle) L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) L
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) L

Energumene (Champion chase) W
Delta Work (Cross country) W

Allaho Ryanair W

Lossiemouth (Triumph) L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) L

 

[Quevega]

Facile Vega (Supreme) L
Jonbon (Arkle) L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) L
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) L

Energumene (Champion chase) W
Delta Work (Cross country) W

Allaho Ryanair W

Lossiemouth (Triumph) L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) L

Controversial ?
Expecting a day one abandonment with no rescheduling ?