FinalFurlong91
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He may run, but he's not good enough to win any of them on what he's shown
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- Thread starter Quevega
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He may run, but he's not good enough to win any of them on what he's shown
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YoungHustler
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Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W
Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W
Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 W
Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W
Throw in wins for Luccia and Mighty Potter too and that will see me handing in my notice!:eagerness::courage::greedy_dollars::cheerful::victorious::triumphant:
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W
Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W
Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 W
Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W
Throw in wins for Luccia and Mighty Potter too and that will see me handing in my notice!:eagerness::courage::greedy_dollars::cheerful::victorious::triumphant:
Lobos
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Facile Vega (Supreme) Win, although after trainer comments, Im coming around to the thinking that Marine Nationale could be a huge threat.
Jonbon (Arkle) Win. Could be the race of the Festival. Won't be easy but I can see him and EF fighting it out and the way he finished off his race at Sandown and the way he battled to victory at Aintree gives me encouragement that he'll come up the hill the better.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) Unless he doesn't make it there or he falls or gets brought down or he isn't himself......he wins.
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) Win........but big question mark for me if he actually runs in the race. I do think he's Willies best chance of winning the BANC but what will Willie do ?
Energumene (Champion chase) Lose. Going for a win for Eddie. Plenty of holes appearing in Energumene form from last season based on horses he's beaten and last year's Champion Chase was handed on a plate to him. In fact, apart from a regressing Shishkin in a two horse race, his form throughout his career can be picked to pieces ! Eddie looked imperious in the Tingle Creek. Flip flop favs after the Clarence House me thinks.
Delta Work (Cross country) Win. What he did to the king of the XC on his first attempt was unbelievable.
Allaho (Ryanair) Win. Yes he has to get there but if he does he destroys them again. Everything about the race just suits him more than anything else.
Lossiemouth (Triumph) Lose. Thought she was the winner before I saw Jupiter. What he did as a 3yo against older horses was spectacular. He's Goshen all over again so just needs to jump the last cleanly for an all the way victory.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) Win. Unless APT can return in the same form as last year which is very doubtful he'll win.
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) Win. I think. Race looks as poor as you can get but her Hurdles win against Brandy stands out so if she can get round in one piece then that should be good enough. Is she a certainty.....not at all.
Jonbon (Arkle) Win. Could be the race of the Festival. Won't be easy but I can see him and EF fighting it out and the way he finished off his race at Sandown and the way he battled to victory at Aintree gives me encouragement that he'll come up the hill the better.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) Unless he doesn't make it there or he falls or gets brought down or he isn't himself......he wins.
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) Win........but big question mark for me if he actually runs in the race. I do think he's Willies best chance of winning the BANC but what will Willie do ?
Energumene (Champion chase) Lose. Going for a win for Eddie. Plenty of holes appearing in Energumene form from last season based on horses he's beaten and last year's Champion Chase was handed on a plate to him. In fact, apart from a regressing Shishkin in a two horse race, his form throughout his career can be picked to pieces ! Eddie looked imperious in the Tingle Creek. Flip flop favs after the Clarence House me thinks.
Delta Work (Cross country) Win. What he did to the king of the XC on his first attempt was unbelievable.
Allaho (Ryanair) Win. Yes he has to get there but if he does he destroys them again. Everything about the race just suits him more than anything else.
Lossiemouth (Triumph) Lose. Thought she was the winner before I saw Jupiter. What he did as a 3yo against older horses was spectacular. He's Goshen all over again so just needs to jump the last cleanly for an all the way victory.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) Win. Unless APT can return in the same form as last year which is very doubtful he'll win.
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) Win. I think. Race looks as poor as you can get but her Hurdles win against Brandy stands out so if she can get round in one piece then that should be good enough. Is she a certainty.....not at all.
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The Giant Bolster
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Great idea for a thread. Tough too; I have them all as worthy favourites but obviously history shows us that they will not all win. So I've tried to make the case against each and see if it changes my current views. It has a bit.
Facile Vega - Win. He goes to the DRF and wins. You'd therefore really be taking him on with the Moscow Flyer winner (maybe Arctic Bresil or Impaire et Passe) or Tolworth winner (where the form looks weaker this season) or believing the Royal Bond form stacks up. Personally, I think he will show his class again at the DRF, scare away the opposition and realistically only need to beat a stablemate who has won the Moscow Flyer come March.
Jonbon - Win. Interesting to see so many people taking him on here. I can definitely see why since Mullins has multiple darts to throw. The thing for me is that Jonbon has set a hugely high standard for them to reach already. He travels and jumps extremely well. I think only tactics are the way to beat him but even then Mullins needs multiple horses at a top level.
Constitution Hill - Win.
Gaillard du Mesnil - Lose. He's not an improving horse; you know he will run to mid 150s which gives anything improving a shot. He also may not end up here. His best chance is probably that it is a weak race with more taking their chances in the BANC.
Energumene - Win. History has shown strong favourites can come up short in the Champion Chase. I just think that he sets a high level and I can't see Edwardstone improving past him (let's not forget they are the same age). Blue Lord has put down a marker but Energumene would surely have to massively underperform and we've seen no likelihood of that yet.
Delta Work - Win. Grade 1 horse proven over the Cross Country fences who finished miles ahead of anything other than a retired stable companion. Who will beat him? Galvin? He'd need to show his spark is back and show he can cope with the fences. Samcro? The same plus you'd probably take Delta Work against him over 3m+ anyway.
Allaho - Lose. If he gets a prep run in advance then maybe I'll think differently. But with the injury and going straight to the Festival, I'd be worried about him not firing on the day.
Lossiemouth - Lose. I think the case against her can be made. Both races have been a slow pace which feels unlikely in the Triumph. It's a division where horses can rapidly improve or emerge close to the Festival. There are also previous mares who have looked strong in prep races but disappointed when against the best in the Triumph (Apple's Shakira, Stormy Ireland).
Galopin des Champs - Win. I just think he is a class horse. I've no concerns about him staying and he has shown he can cope with Cheltenham. Tactics might be his biggest challenge but I think he will just be too strong. Could definitely understand people taking him on though.
Allegorie de Vassey - Win. As posted elsewhere, she's almost certainly good enough to be a contender against geldings nevermind a weak division of mares who have less scope for even further improvement.
Facile Vega - Win. He goes to the DRF and wins. You'd therefore really be taking him on with the Moscow Flyer winner (maybe Arctic Bresil or Impaire et Passe) or Tolworth winner (where the form looks weaker this season) or believing the Royal Bond form stacks up. Personally, I think he will show his class again at the DRF, scare away the opposition and realistically only need to beat a stablemate who has won the Moscow Flyer come March.
Jonbon - Win. Interesting to see so many people taking him on here. I can definitely see why since Mullins has multiple darts to throw. The thing for me is that Jonbon has set a hugely high standard for them to reach already. He travels and jumps extremely well. I think only tactics are the way to beat him but even then Mullins needs multiple horses at a top level.
Constitution Hill - Win.
Gaillard du Mesnil - Lose. He's not an improving horse; you know he will run to mid 150s which gives anything improving a shot. He also may not end up here. His best chance is probably that it is a weak race with more taking their chances in the BANC.
Energumene - Win. History has shown strong favourites can come up short in the Champion Chase. I just think that he sets a high level and I can't see Edwardstone improving past him (let's not forget they are the same age). Blue Lord has put down a marker but Energumene would surely have to massively underperform and we've seen no likelihood of that yet.
Delta Work - Win. Grade 1 horse proven over the Cross Country fences who finished miles ahead of anything other than a retired stable companion. Who will beat him? Galvin? He'd need to show his spark is back and show he can cope with the fences. Samcro? The same plus you'd probably take Delta Work against him over 3m+ anyway.
Allaho - Lose. If he gets a prep run in advance then maybe I'll think differently. But with the injury and going straight to the Festival, I'd be worried about him not firing on the day.
Lossiemouth - Lose. I think the case against her can be made. Both races have been a slow pace which feels unlikely in the Triumph. It's a division where horses can rapidly improve or emerge close to the Festival. There are also previous mares who have looked strong in prep races but disappointed when against the best in the Triumph (Apple's Shakira, Stormy Ireland).
Galopin des Champs - Win. I just think he is a class horse. I've no concerns about him staying and he has shown he can cope with Cheltenham. Tactics might be his biggest challenge but I think he will just be too strong. Could definitely understand people taking him on though.
Allegorie de Vassey - Win. As posted elsewhere, she's almost certainly good enough to be a contender against geldings nevermind a weak division of mares who have less scope for even further improvement.
Might_Bite
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Nice idea Q!
I thought I would use the 'wisdom of the crowd' idea that you always see Dave at Cheltmental banging on about over on Twitter and Youtube to see where the band of ultra talent on here perceives there to be mismatches between perceived chance of winning and the bookies odds.
So far I make it a sample of 35 and any NRs have obviously gone down as Losers.
Results below (ADV is a smash up price according to the jockeys :chuncky
:
I thought I would use the 'wisdom of the crowd' idea that you always see Dave at Cheltmental banging on about over on Twitter and Youtube to see where the band of ultra talent on here perceives there to be mismatches between perceived chance of winning and the bookies odds.
So far I make it a sample of 35 and any NRs have obviously gone down as Losers.
Results below (ADV is a smash up price according to the jockeys :chuncky
:
| Horse | W | L | Equiv Win Odds | Current Best Price | Value |
| Faceile Vega | 22 | 13 | 1.59 | 1.83 | 15.24% |
| Jonbon | 15 | 20 | 2.33 | 2.50 | 7.14% |
| Constitution Hill | 34 | 1 | 1.03 | 1.36 | 32.47% |
| Gaillard Du mesnil | 13 | 22 | 2.69 | 3.00 | 11.43% |
| Energs | 26 | 9 | 1.35 | 1.73 | 28.31% |
| Delta Work | 21 | 14 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 80.00% |
| Allaho | 6 | 29 | 5.83 | 3.00 | -48.57% |
| Lossimouth | 14 | 21 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00% |
| Galopin Des Champs | 21 | 14 | 1.67 | 2.75 | 65.00% |
| Allegorie De Vassey | 31 | 4 | 1.13 | 3.25 | 187.86% |
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Nice idea Q!
I thought I would use the 'wisdom of the crowd' idea that you always see Dave at Cheltmental banging on about over on Twitter and Youtube to see where the band of ultra talent on here perceives there to be mismatches between perceived chance of winning and the bookies odds.
So far I make it a sample of 35 and any NRs have obviously gone down as Losers.
Results below (ADV is a smash up price according to the jockeys :chuncky
Horse W L Equiv Win Odds Current Best Price Value Faceile Vega 22 13 1.59 1.83 15.24% Jonbon 15 20 2.33 2.50 7.14% Constitution Hill 34 1 1.03 1.36 32.47% Gaillard Du mesnil 13 22 2.69 3.00 11.43% Energs 26 9 1.35 1.73 28.31% Delta Work 21 14 1.67 3.00 80.00% Allaho 6 29 5.83 3.00 -48.57% Lossimouth 14 21 2.50 2.50 0.00% Galopin Des Champs 21 14 1.67 2.75 65.00% Allegorie De Vassey 31 4 1.13 3.25 187.86%
So a Delta Work, Galopin Des Champs & ADV treble or some form of multiple bet it is!
Might_Bite
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That's the forum VALUE trixie
Delta Work - 2/1
Galopin - 13/8
Allegorie De Vassey - 9/4
24.64/1 BET365
Delta Work - 2/1
Galopin - 13/8
Allegorie De Vassey - 9/4
24.64/1 BET365
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 Lose - this is a price thing and performance thing for me. Won a terribly weak Grade 1 and hadn’t been the best in both his starts to date imo.
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 Win - seems to have come on a tonne for fences. He’s going to have some task beating the WPM squad, but he’s got a great chance.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 Win - move on
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 Lose - he probably will come here but again he was a serial loser until last week. Again a very poor Grade 1 win. Has run well in defeat but at 6/4 happy to take him on.
Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 Win - current champion, can’t argue with his credentials at all. Edwardstone a worthy candidate but he’s not faced anything of Energumenes calibre imo and we may find out in a couple of weeks.
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 Win - no current challengers surely makes Delta Work one of the favs you want in multiples.
Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 Lose - purely a preparation thing for me. This would change to a win if they got a run into him but I have to say first run of the season would be some feat.
Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 Win - she looks the real deal on what we’ve seen to date. Gala Merceau will no doubt come on for the run and hopefully Bo Zennith throws down a marker this weekend to make it competitive.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 Win - looks a proper superstar, dare I say, in the Kauto mould.
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 Win - she is very short so I wouldn’t be rushing to back her but again for multiples etc she would be part of them. Won impressively on debut and division looks weak as hell.
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 Win - seems to have come on a tonne for fences. He’s going to have some task beating the WPM squad, but he’s got a great chance.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 Win - move on
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 Lose - he probably will come here but again he was a serial loser until last week. Again a very poor Grade 1 win. Has run well in defeat but at 6/4 happy to take him on.
Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 Win - current champion, can’t argue with his credentials at all. Edwardstone a worthy candidate but he’s not faced anything of Energumenes calibre imo and we may find out in a couple of weeks.
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 Win - no current challengers surely makes Delta Work one of the favs you want in multiples.
Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 Lose - purely a preparation thing for me. This would change to a win if they got a run into him but I have to say first run of the season would be some feat.
Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 Win - she looks the real deal on what we’ve seen to date. Gala Merceau will no doubt come on for the run and hopefully Bo Zennith throws down a marker this weekend to make it competitive.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 Win - looks a proper superstar, dare I say, in the Kauto mould.
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 Win - she is very short so I wouldn’t be rushing to back her but again for multiples etc she would be part of them. Won impressively on debut and division looks weak as hell.
Eudipe
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I think they're mostly all too short.. rate the potential opposition to Facile Vega, Jonbon, Energumene and Galopin... too much doubt over where Gaillard runs and whether Allaho makes it in good shape... Delta Work, Lossiemouth & Allegorie look like beasts in their divisions (with preference for the latter at longer odds)... Constitution can not be beaten IF he shows up in form (but wouldn't back any horse Ante Post at such cramped odds)... would add Vaucelet as a rock solid proposition in the Hunters @4s.
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JamieSensible
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Just looking at this, 2/3 are going against nothing, but GDC is surely in the most competitive race of the festival and won't go off less than 2/1 on the day. I appreciate many will be on, but Marie's Rock has got to be the 3rd best chance based on what we've seen so far this season. Or even Vaucelet in a division which is very weak, but the Gold Cup is very very competitive.
Just a warning on the Cross Country, it has a habit of throwing up a well fancied curveball winner who wasn’t considered weeks before the race.
Cause of Causes came out of nowhere to beat the well fancied Jossies Orders, Delta Work was nowhere to be seen in the betting until late Feb before he toppled Tiger Roll, and Tiger himself wasn’t a confirmed runner until a couple of spins around the place in the lead up to the festival…
Lobos
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Feels a bit different this season though with no XCC races held at Cheltenham thus far. I know Delta did it without practice last season but can lighting strike twice ?
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They've rearranged it for trials day.
Keep mentioning this and no one's listening.
The entries for that might be interesting.
JamieSensible
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Tiger Roll did win back to back renewals, I think being a graded horse who's not completely over the hill makes him a class above anything there. And not to be biased but he's the cornerstone of 95% of my multiples so he's the most important runner of the week for me.
Lobos
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Soz Q...not seen that. Interesting. Still a handicap yeah ?
Im there at Trials day as well so that's brilliant.
Soz again.......just seen the other thread..... handicap it is. Won't tell us too much........other than who might be running in March :biggrin-new:
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Black Dog
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Facile Vega:L
Similar price to Appreciate It when he beat a handful of inferior oppooents.FV has better horses to beat atm and potentially more of them.
Jonbon:W
Best jumper so far. Boothill gives the form a solid feel and he just looks better than all of Willie's up to now.
Constitution Hill:W
The only question is, will he be the highest rated hurdler of all time after the race.
Gaillard du Mesnil:L
Finally wins a race but appears to be treading water. Don't fancy him at all in the BANC, and only my wallet thinks he'll win this. I'm not cashing out though.
Energumene:W
I respect Edwardstone, but he's still a way to go to beat this fella. Wouldn't be shocked mind.
Delta work:W
Until Galvin gets a go at the track I need convincing that he can beat DW. If only they could rearrange a race for trials day 
Allaho:L
Needs to run.
Lossiemouth:W
I'd like to see Jupiter du Gite again,to see if it was a fluke (didn't look it) because this girl looks good.
Galopin des Champs:L
I think he's the most likely winner, but there's plenty of strong contenders in behind him. Wouldn't lay him, but struggling to back him . Maybe a lumpy one on the day.
Allegorie de Vassy:W
She's a big girl isn't she? But her nimbleness at the last two fences was as impressive as the rest of her jumping,knowing she can adjust adds the confidence in her fencing. Even normal improvement would have her miles clear surely.
Similar price to Appreciate It when he beat a handful of inferior oppooents.FV has better horses to beat atm and potentially more of them.
Jonbon:W
Best jumper so far. Boothill gives the form a solid feel and he just looks better than all of Willie's up to now.
Constitution Hill:W
The only question is, will he be the highest rated hurdler of all time after the race.
Gaillard du Mesnil:L
Finally wins a race but appears to be treading water. Don't fancy him at all in the BANC, and only my wallet thinks he'll win this. I'm not cashing out though.
Energumene:W
I respect Edwardstone, but he's still a way to go to beat this fella. Wouldn't be shocked mind.
Delta work:W
Until Galvin gets a go at the track I need convincing that he can beat DW. If only they could rearrange a race for trials day 
Allaho:L
Needs to run.
Lossiemouth:W
I'd like to see Jupiter du Gite again,to see if it was a fluke (didn't look it) because this girl looks good.
Galopin des Champs:L
I think he's the most likely winner, but there's plenty of strong contenders in behind him. Wouldn't lay him, but struggling to back him . Maybe a lumpy one on the day.
Allegorie de Vassy:W
She's a big girl isn't she? But her nimbleness at the last two fences was as impressive as the rest of her jumping,knowing she can adjust adds the confidence in her fencing. Even normal improvement would have her miles clear surely.