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Quevega said:
I know, it's the reason why I did it.
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Should Luccia win a bad Tolworth every chance she goes sub 2/1 for the Mares Novice and with Vaucelet hovering around 7/2 a more dominant performance next time and he could well do the same.
But, while we all moan about the price of the favs many of us are saying half (or more) of them won't win so there has to value further down the lists...
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W
Terrible Price but looks the most likely at the moment.

Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L
Think one of Mullins can put it up to him.

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Unbeatable bar a fall.

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - L
Possible NR, and don’t think he’s that far clear of some other possibles.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Two horse race & he’s much better than the other one.

Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - W
Can only see a left field entry beating him, as he did last year. So got to stick with him for now.

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L
Probably NR, would walk it again otherwise.

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - L
Found this one the hardest, still plenty of time for something to emerge or make a big leap in form. I’ll play it safe for now & go with a loss.

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - L
Hope he wins as would mean he’s real star, but think at the moment I’d just take the field against him.

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W​
Has already set a winning standard, who else is going to hit those heights? TMSG maybe?



Just the 5 for me, a few of them are borderline so could have easily gone one way or the other.
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 L
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 L

Can see day 1 being a total mare for the bookies but they'll claw it back on days 2 & 3,if Lossiemouth goes down a lot of day 4 accas will be shot down early then people will be going back in with trebles...so if ADV loses they'll be well in front on the week.​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W
5 wins for me. I don't think Allaho will make it so I've put him as a loss.

FV will be done for toe unless we get very soft ground.

Jonbon will be beat by any of Willies 3.

GDM always finds one too good over fences unless the race completely falls apart. I think he might go the BANC as well

Lossiemouth has won 3 sprints so far. Let's see how she does in an out to out gallop and 6/4 for the Triumph is ludicrous.

For the winners, I'd say Delta Work and GDC are most at risk of losing. Delta Work to an unknown challenger and GDC as the Gold Cup is actually quite a good field this year. One mistake and he doesn't win.

ADV and Energumene are pretty much certainties for me and Constitution Hill wins if he doesn't fall.​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 L: No reason other than I previously suggested I thought he might not come here. I think he comes here and wins now after Parmenion and QDP disappointed in different ways, but I'll chance that something else can beat him so I don't back every favourite here!
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L: Beaten by Mullins' number one.
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W: Only injury or serious misfortune beats him for the next two seasons.
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W: Wins if he goes here, don't see a classier horse going for the race. GC would probably beat him but won't go here. Chemical Energy isn't classier.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W: Never been part of the Edwardstone fan club so there isn't much to beat him this year.
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L: Can't forgive him for the Tiger Roll defeat, hopefully Galvin smashes him.

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 W: Wins if turns up, copped out a bit because it's not a race I'm too interested in now and I have no way of knowing if he will turn up, but match fitness wouldn't worry me if he went.

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L: Gala Marceau beats her if she settles.
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W: Impossible to back against him, like Constitution.
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W: The RPR she got was a joke but still think she walks the Mares Chase. Annoyed I didn't get more on her before her chasing was confirmed.. she was 25/1 Mares Chase with Paddy immediately after the festival last year!​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W

But i know sweet FA ​
 
I really want to say they'll all win, and hope they do. But I expect at least two of them will be non runners...


Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - NR

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - NR

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W



​​​​​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 L
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 L
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 L

​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 L
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 L

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W
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Out of those, I’d

- swap Delta Work to a Win
- massive question mark on FV now
- Lossie was unlucky this weekend, despite that I’d still have her as a Lose
- GDC, I’d swap to a Lose now. Think Stattler will beat him
- ADV I’d have as a lose now as well
 
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Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 Lose - not quite matched the hype, vulnerable
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 Lose - potentially one of the races of the Fez, won't beat AI
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 WIN - much more worthy of coronation than Chaz
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 Lose - probable non runner but far from a certainty if he runs.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 Lose - fear it'll be Edwardstone at the double.
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 WIN - can't see who's gonna get near him right now.

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 Lose - doubtful starter, unrealistic to believe he'll match previous form after such an interrupted prep

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 Lose - worthy favourite but she'll prove I was right to cash out at 20-1:biggrin-new:
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 Lose - too flashy, L'Homme Presse grinds him down
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 WIN - in a league of her own
​
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - L (Close one, but going for one of Willie's)
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - W
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - W (Just really isn't any decent competition for him and Galvin doesn't look the same horse)

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L (NR - Even if he did turn up I would be wary after an injury and most likely no prep run)

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - W
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W​
 
archie said:
I'd have given reasons but didn't want to be accused of waffle.:sorrow:
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Everyone is shaking now getting a Loser from a long term stable owner !

Just tell us who wins !!
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - W
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - W
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - W

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 - L
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 - W

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 - L

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 - W
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 - L
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 - W


​
 
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