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Fat Jockey Podcast - Christmas Chasers - Episode 8

Fat Jockey Podcast - Christmas Chasers - Episode 8

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jono

jono

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Kevloaf has gone AWOL again this week.
But don't worry Spectre gives the latest update on him. And we discuss the many Christmas Chases coming up.

It's a long one, close to 2 hours :rolleyes: But we've touched on as many races and questions as we can.
And have plenty of bets thrown in.


Here's also a rough timeline of the pod as well for anyone who is struggling with time and wants to jump to specific races / sections.

Start - Appreciate It setback
00:08 - Ferny Hollow vs Riviere D'etel
00:16 - Bravemansgame vs Ahoy Senor
00:23 - Savills Chase
00:36 - King George
00:53 - Energumene vs Chacun Pour Soi vs Envoi Allen
01:02 - Other races over Christmas
01:18 - Forum questions
01:35 - Welsh National
01:45 - Pertemps Qualifier

This weeks poll. Was going to be 2 seperate ones - who wins the King George and who wins the Savills chase.
Looks like I can only do 1 poll, and max 10 options. Tried to cover it like so...
Who wins each race?

As ever, thanks for watching :eagerness:
 
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Excellent - I'll listen in while I work this morning.

Good work lads, keep them coming:encouragement:
 
Going to listen to this on the drive down to the in-laws tomorrow :encouragement:
 
Really enjoyed this one, think it’s the excitement that the Christmas jumps brings every year :encouragement:
 
Thanks for your efforts as always, guys, really looking forward to listening to this tonight. :encouragement:
 
The prices look wrong for the Irish Novice chase to me.

Ferny has effectively got to run to a high 150's mark just to be alongside the mare.
Problem is he may be capable.
But like Jono says for a 50/50 type decision - at the prices I'd prefer the mare, and would bet a decent amount at 2-1 (7-4 ish)
 
Love these, well done chaps, top work. I listen to the lot but the time stamps are useful.
 
If Asterion wins the KG, I'd be amazed if he went ryanair vs the gold cup.
Willie almost certain to try him in the big one.
 
….enjoyed that, some great pointers for the next week. Have a lovely Christmas, guys.
 
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Great watch as always fellas.. given the task Ferny Hollow has on Boxing Day, if he does win, what price for the Arkle then?
 
I don't have time for 2 hours, be they ever so admirable and informative. However, my comments on the Savills which I've just viewed:

I'd have thought that there will be 8 or 9 runners and 3 places. In these races with confirmation stages you don't get many dipping out at declaration stage.

A Plus Tard
Clearly the most likely winner but, as Jono said, he's never won 2 races on the trot. Last year's win was only achieved with a ride that earned the jockey a whip ban.

Galvin
Difficult to weigh up because he never wins by far. I'm not a believer as yet but wouldn't rule him out.

Kemboy
I can confirm that he had a big blow some way out in the Durkan and we're hoping that it will have put him spot on for the 28th. This race and the DRF are his early targets and Cheltenham will likely be missed. He's won 2 G1s over course and distance and should go well.

Delta Work
The winner 2 years ago and said to be going well on the gallops. Place chances.

Janidil
Hard to weigh up but had a hard race in the Durkan.

Melon
Surprised if he's good enough.

All in all, it feels like it's between the last 3 winners and Galvin. 38 days seems a short enough turnaround for A Plus Tard and his price his very tight.
 
For Capodanno NH chase fans.
The Mark Walsh factor and JP's lack of classy staying novice chasers should be a concern.
Not sure Willie would give a shit.
 
Not sure why Galvin - an 8 year old 165 rated chaser would need to run in the cross country !
They must have shelved that idea for now.
Let's face it, if he gets well beaten in the Saville's they'll be surprised and put it down to something being wrong.
Cannot see any reason with his Cheltenham record why they'd not have a bash in the Gold cup.
 
Quevega said:
Not sure why Galvin - an 8 year old 165 rated chaser would need to run in the cross country !
They must have shelved that idea for now.
Let's face it, if he gets well beaten in the Saville's they'll be surprised and put it down to something being wrong.
Cannot see any reason with his Cheltenham record why they'd not have a bash in the Gold cup.
Click to expand...

I think his future target hinges on the Savills and a poor performance won't be brushed aside. Gordon views him as more of a National type and to me that's what he looks like. If Galvin runs poorly in the Savills then it would make sense for connections to take an easier and proven prep for the National in the form of the XC, than go down the much tougher Gold Cup route. Down Royal didn't give connections too many answers IMO, whereas I think the Savills will. If APT batters him then why forgo a potential festival win and a tilt and the National, to repose horses he's lost to and other tougher opposition in March?
 
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My gut feeling is that one of Galvin or Kemboy will turn APT over. This is Kemboys Gold Cup. He always runs well at Leopardstown and has the ground in his favour. Also don't think they have got to the bottom of Galvin's potential yet. For me he has loads more to come and the fact they have aimed him at the GC this season as opposed to the GN speaks volumes to me.
 
charlie said:
I think his future target hinges on the Savills and a poor performance won't be brushed aside. Gordon views him as more of a National type and to me that's what he looks like. If Galvin runs poorly in the Savills then it would make sense for connections to take an easier and proven prep for the National in the form of the XC, than go down the much tougher Gold Cup route. Down Royal didn't give connections too many answers IMO, whereas I think the Savills will. If APT batters him then why forgo a potential festival win and a tilt and the National, to repose horses he's lost to and other tougher opposition in March?


Galvin could have course prove me wrong and win the Savills or run well,


No chance in a national off that mark
Click to expand...

No chance in national off that rating
 
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Quevega said:
No chance in national off that rating
Click to expand...

If he loses in the Savills comfortably he'll have little chance in the Gold Cup. Lets let Galvin do the talking on this one...
 
charlie said:
If he loses in the Savills comfortably he'll have little chance in the Gold Cup. Lets let Galvin do the talking on this one...
Click to expand...

If you’re going to win a national off 165
youd be going close in a gold cup.

No sense to run in cross country IMO
think the people that matter know that.

more of a project for next season I’d imagine
 
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Interesting that Galvin has never ran at Leopardstown. Let's hope he takes to it as well as he has taken to Cheltenham.
 
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