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Fat Jockey Podcast - Cheltenham 2023 - 'Book Approach'

I see Wayne ‘The Twat’ Harrison has started spamming out all his bets on the YouTube chats :welcoming:
 
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Day 4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI35QROAqe8



I noticed a death threat in the last set of comments on day 3 - which unfortunately got removed when reported or I'd have screenshotted that first and posted for the banter :highly_amused:... I reckon we'll get another, as this guy seems a bit annoyed....





I don't recall anyone mentioning Flightlinebbc Eighttoone by name - but let's see if we get any more death threats.:indecisiveness:
:highly_amused:
 
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Kevloaf I’ve seen that same account spam commenting on other racing videos, just ignore
 
Very interesting thread and set of videos. I certainly take advantage of some early prices during the weekend after Cheltenham and reinvest some of the winnings - even during the week itself if something for the following season seems obvious. It does make me think I am probably a little too scattergun with approach, but has worked for the past 3-4 years overall. Not mega % profit but enough to make it well worthwhile when added to the enjoyment factor. Never really thought about creating a book per race - my main concern with this is whether it would take some of the fun away? I like picking winners and feeling like I am somehow beating the machine by doing it early with big prices, creating a book seems to be like a mini P/L account as a business? Don’t get me wrong I am tempted for some of the obvious races and may try next year. Equally never do ew antepost as those couple of winners more than covers the scattergun approach, but certainly change approach in the big handicaps closer to the day with better place offers - but I can see the argument on races such as the Arkle and NH Chase that cut up to less than 8 runners.

really great work and has already got me in the mood - especially as the last few months have been very quiet for me as I don’t give a shit about the flat!
 
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Kev. You know you've made it when you have an online troll. Congrats mate. I got 3 more you can borrow if you need them?
 
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Always a Claimer said:
Very interesting thread and set of videos. I certainly take advantage of some early prices during the weekend after Cheltenham and reinvest some of the winnings - even during the week itself if something for the following season seems obvious. It does make me think I am probably a little too scattergun with approach, but has worked for the past 3-4 years overall. Not mega % profit but enough to make it well worthwhile when added to the enjoyment factor. Never really thought about creating a book per race - my main concern with this is whether it would take some of the fun away? I like picking winners and feeling like I am somehow beating the machine by doing it early with big prices, creating a book seems to be like a mini P/L account as a business? Don’t get me wrong I am tempted for some of the obvious races and may try next year. Equally never do ew antepost as those couple of winners more than covers the scattergun approach, but certainly change approach in the big handicaps closer to the day with better place offers - but I can see the argument on races such as the Arkle and NH Chase that cut up to less than 8 runners.

really great work and has already got me in the mood - especially as the last few months have been very quiet for me as I don’t give a shit about the flat!
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Very good question about would it take the fun away.

Obviously that's a totally personal thing so can't answer for anyone, in my own experience though is .... kind of!

I think it was 3 seasons ago, I found the whole festival to be a bit like a big admin task and transaction... it was positive still, was up, (obv) but the whole thing felt a bit underwhelming. I think it was the year we couldn't attend though, so I was mainly just watching the race, then updating the spreadsheet... and when you have every runner covered in some races that just is a bit more of a bore than it was fun.


However, the feeling of knowing you're up regardless is still pretty fun... knowing you're about to win is still fun... just a different kind of fun. By the time the festival comes around (or a few races have been run at least) the risk is all gone really, the risk comes and the fun for me IS the build up, just as much as the event. So the high from a win is lessened if before the race there is no risk to counter it (if that makes sense) ... still does from doubles and multiples, but a full book approach would be less 'fun' on the day...


What I would say though,is spending 6 months a year, on here every day, that is part of the fun.... and book building keeps that at the forefront on my mind and me so active, so I'd argue I have more fun all year that 'the average' out of Cheltenham Ante Post, but it's less of a peak during the actual week than others may have?


Again, all completely individual but that's my thoughts on that.
 
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Always a Claimer said:
Never really thought about creating a book per race - my main concern with this is whether it would take some of the fun away? I like picking winners and feeling like I am somehow beating the machine by doing it early with big prices, creating a book seems to be like a mini P/L account as a business?
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This is a great question.

In my experience - as someone that builds books on more races than logically makes sense - yes it can.

Nothing beats having an opinion throughout and seeing a race play out exactly as you thought / hoped it would on the day, and you don’t get that kind of buzz and satisfaction (and let’s be honest - bragging rights!) on the day when using a book building approach and not taking a view on a race. I could still tell you some horses that I backed a few years ago before I started book-building in earnest when it went exactly as expected (Martello Tower sticks out for some reason)… on the other side, there are also the times that are opposite of fun - if I had followed a book approach instead of building my week around Champagne Fever winning the Arkle and The New One winning the Ballymore a few years back, it would have been a lot easier to take!

It’s still a great sense of satisfaction going in to the week with a good book in a few races - and it’s still very enjoyable seeing how it all plays out. Even with a book there will be results that are better / worse.

Multiples as well, when used together with a book approach - land a couple of those while having (hopefully) guaranteed profit locked in with the singles already - well that can be just as exciting :applouse:

If you don’t get the admin under control then that can suck the fun out of it to a certain extent on the day as well.

Kevloaf - Fully agree with your last paragraph, that the fun is spent with the build up, debate, chat over the months prior to the festival itself instead - and I wouldn’t change it for anything! (not sure why but every time I try to tag you here it makes my post disappear?)
 
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Been busy lately and just catching up on the videos
Great work lads and I'm very happy as I agree with your selections and have a lot of them covered for a few bob already, nice and early
Keep up the good work
 
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Regarding taking the fun away or actually adding more fun. One thing I noticed last year (my first trying to build a few books) was although I hadn't got a bet in certain races during the season I had way more interest in them as one of my team was running or one that I hadn't yet got in the book was and I was nervous about the result. It made me a lot more involved in it all last year as you're constantly looking for clues.
I'd agree with Kev and a few others here that the build up is as if not more exciting. Especially the cold dark night when a hundred or so of us are gathered around our laptops waiting for this years Naiad.
 
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Kev and Paul I just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to pull these together. All were a great watch (and I say this as someone that very rarely watches videos / podcasts - but I’m glad I did!).

They are a great addition and really add value to the forum. It’s also reassuring that 90% of the time your thought process mirrors what I was thinking - and the podcasts also an added a few horses that weren’t on my shortlist.

Kev - you mentioned Quais De Paris for the Triumph. Racing Post have him as already being 4 this year (but with a birth date of April ‘18), although technically still four in March would he still be considered a juvenile for the festival?

Thanks!
 
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Ballyfitz said:
Kev - you mentioned Quais De Paris for the Triumph. Racing Post have him as already being 4 this year (but with a birth date of April ‘18), although technically still four in March would he still be considered a juvenile for the festival?

Thanks!
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Every NH horse's "birthday" is 1st Jan. So Quai De Paris will be five by the time the fez rolls around and therefore ineligible for the Triumph.
 
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Just getting through Day 2 and interestingly to the point of the QMCC and Kev mentioning it like a business.

I've used a dutching calculator on the first five in the betting, so you'd be getting Energumene, Shishkin, Ferny Hollow, Gentleman De Mee & Edwardstone all covered at their best current odds and it's sitting at just over 3/10. IMO, there is barely anything in behind, you could even add another in at around 33/1 (take your pick, plenty of them in behind) and you'd still be getting ever so slightly under 3/10.

Almost seems like an obvious race to dutch the absolute balls out of* :highly_amused:

*Cue all 5 getting injured and something like Gabynako winning it!
 
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Ice said:
Did gabynako lose his life in the Galway plate ?
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Unfortunately he did.

Actually, probably worth underlining this as Gabynako is still in the betting with Skybet and Bet365. I did ask SkyBet to remove him a few weeks back but never heard back.
 
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Exar Essay said:
Unfortunately he did.

Actually, probably worth underlining this as Gabynako is still in the betting with Skybet and Bet365. I did ask SkyBet to remove him a few weeks back but never heard back.
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Jeez, didn't even think about this, just saw him in the betting and picked him out, obviously I had to pick out the dead horse :beaten: I'm doing well this week :black_eyed::highly_amused:
 
On the above, anyone who has backed him since his death can get a full refund.
 
Ballyfitz said:
Kev and Paul I just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to pull these together. All were a great watch (and I say this as someone that very rarely watches videos / podcasts - but I’m glad I did!).

They are a great addition and really add value to the forum. It’s also reassuring that 90% of the time your thought process mirrors what I was thinking - and the podcasts also an added a few horses that weren’t on my shortlist.

Kev - you mentioned Quais De Paris for the Triumph. Racing Post have him as already being 4 this year (but with a birth date of April ‘18), although technically still four in March would he still be considered a juvenile for the festival?

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Yeah JM pointed that out, I've popped it as a note on the video. My mistake! :uncomfortableness:
One for the Supreme to note :onthego::barbershop_quartet_member:
 
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