Fat Jockey Podcast - Cheltenham 2023 - 'Book Approach'

[Kevloaf]

Hello :watermelon:


Had a planned call with Spectre today that's ended up as as unplanned podcast (or 5!)


First one (below) is just a little bit of a chat around our approaches, specifically book building, and if you're interested in this at all, then feel free to watch and ask any questions or comment in here or on YT ... it's fairly niche in the grand scheme of things and definitely won't be for everyone... but what is! :biggrin-new:


We then recorded one short pod for each day, just about what key horses would be making up books if starting now and how we'll approach them personally, which I'll upload over the next 4 days.... again, none of it was planned so it's pretty raw (which let's face it, it always is anyway) ...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yb86WPIdgwo

We have planned to do a 'Season Preview' kind of podcast that we'll record this week, that won't be centred around 'books', which will be out at some point next week. It'll be jono, Paul and I waffling for ages in a likely very long chat with no real purpose, just for your listening pleasure :witless:




Day 1 -
An initial look at horses that we have / will be adding ante post for Cheltenham 2023


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJHkNgoo4f0

Day 2 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLJIDt29h0Q

Day 3 - Books - Starting points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfhwTkn_oo4

Day 4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI35QROAqe8

 

[Spectre]

As Kev says, book building isn't for everyone, but I'm happy to answer any questions anyone has.

Hopefully the podcasts for the four individual days will throw out a few names you might not have heard of or considered yet, and I'm sure you'll hear plenty of familiar ones too.

And as always your feedback is appreciated, whether it be good or bad.

 

[That Horse]

Outside of the Arkle, what other races are high on the list for early book building? I know you'll end up having a book on every race but just wondered how you rank the other races to build your book from a year out, as I could imagine it might be difficult doing a book for one of the novice hurdles compared to the likes of the Arkle.

I'm not a book builder but I guess my interest would be if there are two or three races that cut up like the Arkle field usually does, then it would seem sensible to do some multiples across those races if that makes sense?

 

[Kevloaf]

Outside of the Arkle, what other races are high on the list for early book building? I know you'll end up having a book on every race but just wondered how you rank the other races to build your book from a year out, as I could imagine it might be difficult doing a book for one of the novice hurdles compared to the likes of the Arkle.

I'm not a book builder but I guess my interest would be if there are two or three races that cut up like the Arkle field usually does, then it would seem sensible to do some multiples across those races if that makes sense?

1. National Hunt Chase (select amount of jockeys and connections easier to whittle down than most races)
2. Mares Chase (just a small pool to have to work through)
3. Champion Chase (easiest of the Championship Races.... most likely small field of the lot with specific trials and 'types')

They're pretty easy to narrow down, and similarly Triumph can be now the Boodles is there... but a lot of horses to sift through as unknowns...

Essentially, it's anything where you feel there will be a small and select field... Turners and Browns can be too...


Completely agree, Supreme and Ballymore are incredibly hard, and the Mares Novice Hurdle can be..... Albert Bartlett the easiest of the four, although that's never usually a small field.... so definitely not easy.

 

[Spectre]

I think that's pretty much captured it Kev. All of the Novice Chases tend to be (only Arkle this early though), and the open Championship races too, as you can fairly early predict what's going to turn up on the day with any kind of chance, and you just have to add in the odd horse when the season throws out its curve balls. The Stayers can often be the exception to the rule, but it would be fairly easy to get started with a book right now, even if you have to consider some current unknown players.

The key is to have target returns for each race and to adjust staking on your portfolio as you make additions as the season progresses. And also don't get stuck in your thinking, and be flexible. if something can be a genuine contender, and it's price is likely to shorten on an entry or a performance just add it. Don't think twice about it. You can cash out or use the Exchange to offload, lock in a profit, or limit losses. Injuries happen and you do get caught, but by covering multiple races, you have a book within a book, and all of your books together provide mitigation against any races going wrong.

 

[robith]

Is there a science to calculating what return is acceptable? I always work to a base starting point of at least 20 points return, then later on calcualting profitability, but there must be a smarter technique then me thinking "this is the minimum amount I'd be happy seeing pop up on screen"

 

[HoldenTheReins]

What is the maximum amount of horses you'd have per race? Say 3-5 for an example where if any of them win you are in profit, what is the average point return you'll be looking at?

If you were starting the book today would you be taking the crap prices of say like Facile Vega for the Supreme or Constitution Hill for the Champion Hurdle, using 'roll ups' or just avoid race?

If you are going to make a book for those races you'd want them on side for profit, right?

 

[Lobos]

Maximum I'd have per race is 3/4 horses giving me on average 20pt profit on each horse. Works for me .

 

[Lobos]

Is there a science to calculating what return is acceptable? I always work to a base starting point of at least 20 points return, then later on calcualting profitability, but there must be a smarter technique then me thinking "this is the minimum amount I'd be happy seeing pop up on screen"

I don't think there is a smarter technique. It's what works for you. Don't change it.

 

[Clinker]

Hello :watermelon:


Had a planned call with Spectre today that's ended up as as unplanned podcast (or 5!)


First one (below) is just a little bit of a chat around our approaches, specifically book building, and if you're interested in this at all, then feel free to watch and ask any questions or comment in here or on YT ... it's fairly niche in the grand scheme of things and definitely won't be for everyone... but what is! :biggrin-new:


We then recorded one short pod for each day, just about what key horses would be making up books if starting now and how we'll approach them personally, which I'll upload over the next 4 days.... again, none of it was planned so it's pretty raw (which let's face it, it always is anyway) ...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yb86WPIdgwo

We have planned to do a 'Season Preview' kind of podcast that we'll record this week, that won't be centred around 'books', which will be out at some point next week. It'll be jono, Paul and I waffling for ages in a likely very long chat with no real purpose, just for your listening pleasure :witless:

Really enjoyed this. Very informative and interesting.

 

[Clinker]

In the podcast you talk about starting on the Saturday post festival. For this, im assuming, you need to understand how/why horses progress from winning or doing well in one race which then sees them naturally progress to a different race the following year. Are you able to share your thoughts on the "normal" route horses in certain routes take, for example a supreme horse for year 2 would go to arkle for example. Apologies for any confusion still learning and finding a way to explain things.

 

[Kevloaf]

In the podcast you talk about starting on the Saturday post festival. For this, im assuming, you need to understand how/why horses progress from winning or doing well in one race which then sees them naturally progress to a different race the following year. Are you able to share your thoughts on the "normal" route horses in certain routes take, for example a supreme horse for year 2 would go to arkle for example. Apologies for any confusion still learning and finding a way to explain things.

One for Paul rather than me but my two penneth... yeah, there are no set in stone progressions - it's often important to listen to trainers through the season too, as sometimes they'll say things like "he's a big rangy type" or "will be better over fences" which is then obvious that they're much more likely to go novice chasing than have a crack at a Champion Hurdle...

Essentially, if you don't win a Supreme, Ballymore or Triumph, you're much more likely to go novice chasing in my opinion... hardly any horses are bought / trained for a Stayers Hurdle in mind.

 

[Kevloaf]

Is there a science to calculating what return is acceptable? I always work to a base starting point of at least 20 points return, then later on calcualting profitability, but there must be a smarter technique then me thinking "this is the minimum amount I'd be happy seeing pop up on screen"

I try to work towards a profit per race, but that's so much harder to do until the actual final fields to know what each outcome would be, that I have to start with just 'return'

By the final fields, adjusting those results could mean laying, backing something else or 'topping up' even at shorter odds.... but at this stage it's just getting in the position to be able to do that...

I tend to leave a lot running based on previous years, so don't really 'hammer it home' if I'm 'right' in who I fancy the most... it's an area I may adjust this year though, a bit more of a 'go big or go home approach'.

 

[Kevloaf]

What is the maximum amount of horses you'd have per race? Say 3-5 for an example where if any of them win you are in profit, what is the average point return you'll be looking at?

If you were starting the book today would you be taking the crap prices of say like Facile Vega for the Supreme or Constitution Hill for the Champion Hurdle, using 'roll ups' or just avoid race?

If you are going to make a book for those races you'd want them on side for profit, right?

First question - I'd literally back the entire field if I could and it still worked financially... an example of it working would be Labaik's Supreme, when on the day of race the 'rags' are huge prices, extra places, all that funky stuff so you can cover the 'ridiculous' potential results... often they are literally out the back of the TV, but depending on how well you've picked the right horses, got on at better than SP and avoided injuries to your selections it can be a really comfy position.

It's very easy to get it wrong though in some races, the Supreme in particular I mentioned in the video being one that I can't see a book building angle in to at the moment without the use of a 'roll up'.... and ultimately, the roll ups rely on winning bets along the way, which if we all knew how to do would be great... we need more collaboration on this as Saxon Warrior mentioned in the YouTube comments!

...and yes, 100% you'd want the shorties in for profit... the most likely winners... it could mean just avoiding them for now, and hoping others shorten around to make it clearer nearer the time.... it's definitely not just a case of backing them all and claiming we've backed the winner, if a book can't be made, it can't be made and you're forced to go with other options..... this year looks tighter than I can recall this far out in the Supreme, QMCC and I wouldn't bother with the Ryanair this far out either...

Hope that answers - thanks for all the questions so far :welcoming:

 

[Hurricane fly]

I totally agree with Spectres view, the first week after the festival is now key to securing prices, you see the first cuts to horses within 72 hours of the final race.

Kev mentioned about how everyone will moan about horses being cut on entry, the reality is many horses are being trimmed almost every month over summer, the 8/1 you fancied in April is suddenly 5 or 6/1 for no real reason outside of a few quid in October. For example, GDM was 10/1 after the IGN, now 9/2 in places. An Tobar has gone from 25/1 into 12s for nothing more than a few positive mentions.

Yes this is a small number of horses but they are ones you invariably want on your side. I've slowly added bits and pieces over the last few months but if I had the bank to do so I could have probably closed up for summer and ensured I had the positions I wanted come May on prices that are probably not going to be seen again given that most will win at a canter on debut and be cut again so even a loss in race 2 only puts them half way back.

I instantly cringe when I see horses I like being mentioned on twitter because I know a price contraction will likely follow and a horse I thought I could build some FBs toward needs to be backed sooner than I'd like. However, this has been the case for probably the last 2 years, us moaning on here isn't going to change things so it's right to adapt.


I still can't bring myself to e/w backing unless I'm doubling with a non horse bet so the each way costs in as being free to me because of stake restraints. Again Spectre mentioned wanting the winner and the places and using the exchanges to lay off, if that wasn't an option and you only had a set amount e.g 15 points a race, would you see it as 7.5pt e/w on selections or spread the points win only?

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I still can't bring myself to e/w backing unless I'm doubling with a non horse bet so the each way costs in as being free to me because of stake restraints. Again Spectre mentioned wanting the winner and the places and using the exchanges to lay off, if that wasn't an option and you only had a set amount e.g 15 points a race, would you see it as 7.5pt e/w on selections or spread the points win only?

Unless I am mistaken, there’s no such thing as a Place or Each Way LAY option on the Exchange for Cheltenham Festival races, until very close to race day.

Each Cheltenham Festival BFX market says “Win Only Market”.

So I’m not sure how Each Way can be laid off at all.

If anyone knows the answer, I am sure there are some that bet Each Way regularly that would like a nudge in the right direction. :encouragement:

 

[Quevega]

Unless I am mistaken, there’s no such thing as a Place or Each Way LAY option on the Exchange for Cheltenham Festival races, until very close to race day.

Each Cheltenham Festival BFX market says “Win Only Market”.

So I’m not sure how Each Way can be laid off at all.

If anyone knows the answer, I am sure there are some that bet Each Way regularly that would like a nudge in the right direction. :encouragement:

To add to this.
liquidity on the win markets are often non existent for horses you may want to lay. Even if you’re on the ball.
another downside is the Cashout becoming harder to utilise.
IMO, you have to expect to be in the red as the tapes go up. Of course there can be lots of opportunities along the journey to mess on the exchange or cashout profits which may help mitigate this.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Unless I am mistaken, there’s no such thing as a Place or Each Way LAY option on the Exchange for Cheltenham Festival races, until very close to race day.

Each Cheltenham Festival BFX market says “Win Only Market”.

So I’m not sure how Each Way can be laid off at all.

If anyone knows the answer, I am sure there are some that bet Each Way regularly that would like a nudge in the right direction. :encouragement:

I might not have worded it well but I think Spectre lays the win part so he has decent place odds on horses he thinks won't win but have a chance at placing

 

[ComplyOrDie]

IMO, you have to expect to be in the red as the tapes go up. Of course there can be lots of opportunities along the journey to mess on the exchange or cashout profits which may help mitigate this.

This is an absolute guarantee for me, especially with my 'scattergun' approach. Two seasons back I was a little over 230pts down before the tape went up in the Supreme. I'd never been this deep in any ante post betting in my life. As it happened, it turned out to be my best ever festival for returns (no aftertiming, it's all in my diary ). I'm nearly 30pts down already for this coming season (mostly from roll ups though).

I think everyone should be expecting a level of collateral damage pre-festival. It is the nature of the ante post game. If you can't accept this then in may be a struggle psychologically, IMO.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I might not have worded it well but I think Spectre lays the win part so he has decent place odds on horses he thinks won't win but have a chance at placing

The key here is Mitigating Pre-Festival Losses for people who might be tempted into trying Book Betting.

With EW ones that don't run, are injured, run in the wrong race, then the Place bets are lost?

Maybe the Win parts too?

Quevega makes a good point about "messing on the Exchange" to turn a profit and mitigate some of the year-long or months-long bets that didnt/couldn't be cashed out or couldn't be a Lay on the Exchange.
- maybe thats a discussion topic and Q can tell us how he does that?

But my primary question is where is the Each-Way LAY opportunity on Festival Bets for people - anyone who is thinking about following the Video and making
"Each Way Books" on races?

Am I overlooking something obvious on BFX and all of the horses you want to back in your Books from the Day after one Festival Ends to the Day the next Festival Starts, can be LAYED off on BFX WIN and PLACE, all year round?

- Because I can't see the PLACE part anywhere.

I might be looking in the wrong place.

And the WIN part too, often lacks liquidity, and would certainly lack liquidity for horses we no longer like because they're injured, or just lost a race or are being aimed at another, as the LAY parts would disappear quickly (if not Immediately).

I understand if you back early then you've got bigger odds (hopefully) to help to LAY off the Win parts when things start to go against these horses in your chosen races.

What I'm looking for an answer for, from anyone, doing EW Books already a year ahead of the Fez, or a long way ahead, to say to those thinking of starting this route is whats the immediate exit route in that year for dead or dying EW Book bets?

Im asking, not for myself, but for those who maybe considering following Kev and Spectre and being disciples of a Book Approach, as three things appear obvious from the start

1) You're going to be spending a lot more money constructing your BOOK on each race you do this on.

2) You're going to start spending that money far earlier, from right after the Festival finishes next March (even earlier for the odd bet before Festival 2023 on Festival 2024 bets)

3) You need to know NOW what you're options are for getting out of bets on horses you've picked that
- get injured,
- lose form,
- go to different races than the on youve backed them in

Otherwise you're building up a heap of bets on some horses that at some point, you know won't be running in races you've backed them in, as the Festival approaches, and

- the bookies know that too, and

- the folk laying on BFX know that too,

- and each of those groups can pull your Cashout or pull their Lay offers on BFX at the touch of their keypad, or a blink of an algorithm.

These are the key question for Book Betting.

HOW to get out

WHEN to get out

WHAT level of pre-Festival LOSSES are acceptable to achieve near perfect BOOKS on the majority of horses on the races, on the day - all main bases covered.

I'm trying on behalf of anyone thinking of doing it this way, to understand the downsides they could face before the Festival starts, as well as being shown the upsides of being in a great place on Festival week.

I do like to see the dangers ahead of time and plan to mitigate them, thats part of my own make-up.

Its why I tend to back WIN Only, when without cashout, I don't see any route (yet) to LAY off PLACE betting when I want to.

I fear, here, that people could get lost in mounds of EW bets on half of the Festival races, and havent yet been shown the clear routes out of bets going bad before March and

- what they can do about that?

- when they should do that?

- how they can exit those bets?

- what percentage of WIN bets placed will be lost pre-Festival when book building?

- what percentage of PLACE bets placed will be lost pre-Festival when book-building?

Maybe a Video from Kev and Spectre can home in on how new book followers will be able to exit WIN and PLACE bets that look like they're not going to run in the race you've backed them for?

How much new Book-Builders can expect to write-off pre-Festival as they're non-runners in March each year

That would help new book-builders now before they start on that journey.

They can then track their own fortunes and finances through to March 2023 or March 2024, and see how they fared against the figures Kev and Spectre work to, and highlight for them now.