Fat Jockey Podcast - Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Quevega]

Pleasing that he has a hobby outside of acquiring shit tons of money from all these winning bets.



When are we changing the forum name from Fat Jockey to Fanny Bettor by the way?

:highly_amused: Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

 

[Kevloaf]

:highly_amused: Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

:highly_amused: - will be reconsidered during any re-brand conversations.

 

[Spectre]

:highly_amused: Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

You should know by now Q we only do votes on things you don't want votes on! :highly_amused:

 

[ToniC]

Absolutely excellent lads really enjoyed this one. Didn’t feel anywhere near as long as it actually is! So much better than the more mainstream racing podcast. Spectre I particularly enjoyed & agreed with your analysis on the profiles of horses that typically go to the supreme for WPK and how that relates to Sir G and DD.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Really good Podcast guys. Found myself nodding along with pretty much all of it.

 

[Glasgow Ronnie]

First time I have listened to one in one go, thoroughly enjoyed it

 

[Craigy14]

Enjoyed this gents, surprising how quick the time goes :glee:

I tended to agree with a lot of what was being said, interesting your stats/trends back what a lot are thinking re WPM’s horses for each race.

Definitely liked Grand Jury for here and have backed him, very good run against stayers imo. Better ground as Paul says and he’ll have a chance.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

Well done guys

You know you've made it as a podcast when Wayne Harrison posts 50 imaginary aftertimed bets into the comments

 

[Maxfield]

Great Podcast lads, just one question for you gentlemen or anyone on the forum and it's not just on this race.

If you look at the past winners of the Novice races Balleymore / Supreme / Bartlett / Turners / Festival Novice Chase / Triumph and I've only looked quickly, mostly with memory, but I would say that at least 80% of the winners have had 3 runs before coming to Cheltenham. We could be looking at all the 6 races with favs only having 2 runs (excluding Fil Dor & Blazing Khal at the moment, but there's a good chance they won't go off fav) I think Vauban / Icare Allen and Journey With Me could go off fav.

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham. I feel the first run is mostly against a weak field, then the 2nd is to show improvement on jumping against a few better horses, then the third race is to make sure the horse is really confident and has raced against even better opposition to test them in a better run race.

Are the likes of theses horse going to get 3 runs in ? Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Galopin Des Champs / Bob Olinger / Journey With Me / Gerri Colombe / Vauban / Icare Allen /

Could we see a few strong favs beaten to a more experience horse?

Does this favour the likes of Jonbon (soon to have 3) Bravemansgame / Ginto / Blazing Khal / Porticello / Hollow Games / Stage Star / Lhomme Presse / Ahoy Senor / Mighty Potter to name a few!

Or like me has everyone got all these covered just in case!!

I've left out the Arkle as I think they will all pretty much have had 3 runs each.

 

[Quevega]

Great Podcast lads, just one question for you gentlemen or anyone on the forum and it's not just on this race.

If you look at the past winners of the Novice races Balleymore / Supreme / Bartlett / Turners / Festival Novice Chase / Triumph and I've only looked quickly, mostly with memory, but I would say that at least 80% of the winners have had 3 runs before coming to Cheltenham. We could be looking at all the 6 races with favs only having 2 runs (excluding Fil Dor & Blazing Khal at the moment, but there's a good chance they won't go off fav) I think Vauban / Icare Allen and Journey With Me could go off fav.

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham. I feel the first run is mostly against a weak field, then the 2nd is to show improvement on jumping against a few better horses, then the third race is to make sure the horse is really confident and has raced against even better opposition to test them in a better run race.

Are the likes of theses horse going to get 3 runs in ? Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Galopin Des Champs / Bob Olinger / Journey With Me / Gerri Colombe / Vauban / Icare Allen /

Could we see a few strong favs beaten to a more experience horse?

Does this favour the likes of Jonbon (soon to have 3) Bravemansgame / Ginto / Blazing Khal / Porticello / Hollow Games / Stage Star / Lhomme Presse / Ahoy Senor / Mighty Potter to name a few!

Or like me has everyone got all these covered just in case!!

I've left out the Arkle as I think they will all pretty much have had 3 runs each.

This number of runs is a theme with you isn't it ?
Same with festival appearances.

Logic suggests the more experience the more likely you'll be better. Up to a point when time/age catches up with you.

I don't really think the statistics back this up completely, and when they do that's just natural.
I wouldn't become to obsessed with this angle myself.

The stepping stones for a novice hurdler are generally - Maiden - Listed/grade3 - Grade2/1 - Championship level.
So 3 runs fits the bill for the best ones. And will therefore be the most common route.
Some will skip a step along the way but doesn't mean they will all suffer because of it.

The same goes with festival appearances, as it's most common to go from - Novice hurdler - Novice Chaser - Open chasing.
And the better horses turn up at the festival.

So again, it's going to be the most common route to success as it's the most common route.
But not something you'd factor in more than other stats regarding age and exposure etc. IMO.

 

[BookieBasher]

Great Podcast lads, just one question for you gentlemen or anyone on the forum and it's not just on this race.

If you look at the past winners of the Novice races Balleymore / Supreme / Bartlett / Turners / Festival Novice Chase / Triumph and I've only looked quickly, mostly with memory, but I would say that at least 80% of the winners have had 3 runs before coming to Cheltenham. We could be looking at all the 6 races with favs only having 2 runs (excluding Fil Dor & Blazing Khal at the moment, but there's a good chance they won't go off fav) I think Vauban / Icare Allen and Journey With Me could go off fav.

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham. I feel the first run is mostly against a weak field, then the 2nd is to show improvement on jumping against a few better horses, then the third race is to make sure the horse is really confident and has raced against even better opposition to test them in a better run race.

Are the likes of theses horse going to get 3 runs in ? Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Galopin Des Champs / Bob Olinger / Journey With Me / Gerri Colombe / Vauban / Icare Allen /

Could we see a few strong favs beaten to a more experience horse?

Does this favour the likes of Jonbon (soon to have 3) Bravemansgame / Ginto / Blazing Khal / Porticello / Hollow Games / Stage Star / Lhomme Presse / Ahoy Senor / Mighty Potter to name a few!

Or like me has everyone got all these covered just in case!!

I've left out the Arkle as I think they will all pretty much have had 3 runs each.

Blazing Khal out literally as you were typing this out

 

[Spectre]

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham.

Thanks Maxfield, and everyone for the positive comments. They're appreciated, and make the time spent feel worthwhile.

I'm in agreement generally that experience is a benefit, but we shouldn't forget how much schooling they get at home. I spend quite a bit of time comparing how horses jump and the eye test is often quite revealing when you compare against other horses. The shorter the trip the bigger the advantage/disadvantage. Also consider the difference between the old and new courses, and how many hurdles they jump in the last parts of their races. Also experience from P2P's and Bumpers counts for a lot too.

Ultimately you have to take each horse on its own merits, but you may use inexperience as a general guide for cause for investigation and comparison. Ability is by far the biggest factor of all though. If you're a lot better than the opposition a couple of scruffy jumps may not stop you winning.

 

[ThomasJHogg]

Loved all the podcasts released recently, have to say they’re for more informative and reasoned than most other podcasts/Cheltenham previews I’ve listened too! Great work fellas keeps it up

 

[jono]

Thanks for all the positive feedback.
it is always really appreciated.

Onto the handicaps next week.
So if anyone has any questions or aspects they want covered let us know :encouragement:

 

[isitmarchyet]

Onto the handicaps next week.
So if anyone has any questions or aspects they want covered let us know :encouragement:

Wouldn't mind the winner of all of these, Jono, if it's not too much trouble. :biggrin-new:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Very early for serious handicap chat - entry day is 22nd Feb, be a whole lot more interesting after that date, and before the handicap weights the following week.

 

[Quevega]

Very early for serious handicap chat - entry day is 22nd Feb, be a whole lot more interesting after that date, and before the handicap weights the following week.

Yeah, I agree.
No disrespect but with all the hangers on.
Scatter gunning names for handicaps for three hours at this stage when the markets are not fully formed and no NRNB is available is something I'd prefer not to see.
If the format is to put 1 up for each race and reason why then that's more palatable for me.
Just being selfish as I'm confident I'll have a decent edge in these races,
And it's your podcast so your entitled to do what you want.

I'd have been tempted to plan the podcasts around the entry stages myself.
The race to get on early can be counter productive as the amount of misses increases.

 

[Kevloaf]

Very early for serious handicap chat - entry day is 22nd Feb, be a whole lot more interesting after that date, and before the handicap weights the following week.

Yeah, I agree.
No disrespect but with all the hangers on.
Scatter gunning names for handicaps for three hours at this stage when the markets are not fully formed and no NRNB is available is something I'd prefer not to see.
If the format is to put 1 up for each race and reason why then that's more palatable for me.
Just being selfish as I'm confident I'll have a decent edge in these races,
And it's your podcast so your entitled to do what you want.

I'd have been tempted to plan the podcasts around the entry stages myself.
The race to get on early can be counter productive as the amount of misses increases.

My message to jono and Spectre this morning was....

"It's too early for me to dedicate any time to them this far out"

and then made sure we've got a proper one booked in.



I might sit out this weeks again ..... need a Burger King anyway :highly_amused:

Friday night before the DRF .... might do a live one though :topsy_turvy:

 

[Eggs]

…..a ‘which target’ debate might be of interest. The same horses head the market in a number of (non-handicap) races, so where do you think they’ll end up.

 

[Quevega]

…..a ‘which target’ debate might be of interest. The same horses head the market in a number of (non-handicap) races, so where do you think they’ll end up.

Are you trolling me :highly_amused: