Fat Jockey Podcast - Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[jono]

Spectre and I take a good luck at the Ballymore market this week.

Rough timeline below.
So anyone sick of the Mullins bingo can jump half an hour in :excitement:

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Start - Mullins - Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard
32min - Henderson - Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Walking on Air
44min - Ginto
53min - Robcour - Journey With Me, Gerri Colombe, Grand Jury
1h6min - Stage Star
1h14min - Outsiders and Bets

This weeks poll.
Which horse wins the Ballymore?

As ever, thanks for watching :encouragement:

​​

 

[isitmarchyet]

Not sure what it says about me that I'm looking forward to a 90 minute podcast on one race, but I am! :watermelon:

Thanks as always for these :encouragement:

 

[Exar Essay]

Don't know how you arrived at this topic ... :tongue-new:

The dog can now be walked again. He will be grateful.

 

[Quevega]

With no power or authority whatsoever I ordered a ban on discussions around the Mullins bingo supreme/ballymore runner :sleeping::love_heart::applause:

You 2 have been very very naughty.

FWIW.
The only thing to know about Willie is he leaves decisions (quite rightly as more is known) till the last minute.
However, if everything pans out as people expect with Sir G winning etc and the Henderson horses running etc.

I believe Willie will not base his decision on any races except for the last race they will both have run, and the style of victory, the opposition and then the horse's themselves (keen vs relaxed).

Then probably run them both :highly_amused:
& run his 2nd and/or third placed horses in Dublin in the ballymore instead.:indecisiveness:

FWIW Sir Gerhards price for Dublin is fooking shite. IMO (assuming the ones that have ran in graded races turn up)

 

[Quevega]

I know kev mentioned the related double with Sir G dublin (currently 5/4) & DD ballymore.

But ladbrokes/coral are 9-1 supreme for Sir G & 6-1 DD ballymore - which makes it 78-1 boosted. Might as well do that I reckon.:encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

I know kev mentioned the related double with Sir G dublin (currently 5/4) & DD ballymore.

But ladbrokes/coral are 9-1 supreme for Sir G & 6-1 DD ballymore - which makes it 78-1 boosted. Might as well do that I reckon.:encouragement:

That may leave you nothing on DD though.

Albeit I think its a decent one regardless. Worth doing

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Good work gents. I particularly enjoyed this one. Can’t believe we’re 8 weeks away!

 

[Quevega]

That may leave you nothing on DD though.

Albeit I think its a decent one regardless. Worth doing

Isn't that the same if Sir G loses in Dublin ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Well this was one of my favourite podcasts so far, not least because I agree with most of what was said by you both :encouragement:

Love the Ballymore dilemma, makes for good debate and even better opinions/cases, you actually have to think about it, maybe look a bit deeper into each horse, the history of what trainers have done previously etc... And then likely chuck it all in the bin because you realise it is Willie Mullins we are talking about :highly_amused:

It's all about the DRF, I would imagine, though if WPM still felt DD was more suited to a Ballymore he'd sure stick him in it regardless (the opposite obviously applies as well). Interesting conundrum to try and work out. I've given my reasoning's and thoughts previously so won't go over old ground, although what Spectre said was pretty much it in a nutshell.

I remember there was similar debate about Envoi Allen & Samcro, the majority were thinking Ballymore though, whereas this time around it has been a little more divisive, probably down to the fact both Samcro & Envoi had come from p2p backgrounds (a good pointer for a Ballymore) and had won over hurdles over a distance beyond the minimum at this stage.

One thing I forgot to mention that Spectre did was DD's jumping in comparison to the other Supreme contenders this season. He'd be bottom of the list of the 4 for fluency in his hurdling, IMO. Danny Mullins, on the 'Road To Cheltenham' show, picked up on this too and noted that he got better as the race went on, this would tie in with the Ballymore reasoning (of course it would :highly_amused, due to the longer trip.

Away from this pair, I was interested to hear thoughts on Gerri Colombe. I've been tooing and froing about what to do with him and my bets, and am still in limbo. I think he could just be massively ground dependant. He only just won his p2p on 'soft' and has been at his most impressive, IMO, in the heavy ground bumper win. So unless it comes up a complete bog at the festival I do wonder if we will actually see him turn up at all. He's also one of the more likely ones to be a proper chaser, based on his breeding, so may be held back for this.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Have recently grown to hate this race and keep zoning out to conversation around it, but curiously it's the first one of these i've actually properly watched and all the way through! :hopelessness: (not your fault it's the first chaps, I have the concentration span of a dead goldfish). Really good stuff both of you, fingers crossed Spectre is right about Dysart and JWM in particular.

Feel like we need to know more about Kevs Mcdonalds trip though, have a horrible feeling he's a chicken nuggets man.

 

[Lobos]

IMO what Sir Gerhard does at the DRF will not make a blind bit of difference to where DD goes..............he's heading to the Supreme whatever, end of. Sir G however could go Ballymore depending on how the DRF race pans out. Should he win impressively then he too will go for the opener and they won't split them.

 

[BookieBasher]

IMO what Sir Gerhard does at the DRF will not make a blind bit of difference to where DD goes..............he's heading to the Supreme whatever, end of. Sir G however could go Ballymore depending on how the DRF race pans out. Should he win impressively then he too will go for the opener and they won't split them.

Personally I can’t see anyway WPM wastes 2 of his best novice hurdle darts against Henderson’s 2 supreme hotpots. I’m certain they’ll be split as Willie will want 2 winners

 

[Lobos]

Then, in that scenario, SG goes Ballymore. DD is Supreme bound......imo.

Why wouldn't Mullins want to throw his two best Supreme darts at Henderson's two best Supreme darts?? He's a very competitive and proud man and loves a fight. He may still have others that will be plenty good enough to win this year's Ballymore anyway. Why waste sending either DD or SG there when they are clearly 2 milers and would, imo, be disadvantaged over the longer trip ??

 

[Stormez]

Another great listen lads, and in agreement with almost all of it so hope you’re right!

 

[Lobos]

Think we may also see one of Mullins Mares heading to the Ballymore the way the race may break up. He has plenty of those he can split up !!!

 

[BookieBasher]

Then, in that scenario, SG goes Ballymore. DD is Supreme bound......imo.

Why wouldn't Mullins want to throw his two best Supreme darts at Henderson's two best Supreme darts?? He's a very competitive and proud man and loves a fight. He may still have others that will be plenty good enough to win this year's Ballymore anyway. Why waste sending either DD or SG there when they are clearly 2 milers and would, imo, be disadvantaged over the longer trip ??

Absolutely WIllie is a proud man who doesn’t back down. But he wants winners! And I believe the Ballymore is there for the taking and either SG or DD would have no problem taking in the extra 5 furlongs so wouldn’t be a waste. I’ve got SG and DD doubles both ways as like Spectre believe they will both win so being split either way is fine with me. Although DD winning the Ballymore pays for my 3 days at the Festival

 

[Kevloaf]

Isn't that the same if Sir G loses in Dublin ?

Yes but the point is that a win for Sir G impacts the destination 'directly'.....
Which if Sir G does win at Dublin, then loses the Supreme, leaves you nothing...

I've added the double you've said as well, but I'll do the other, and that's still the preference.... jsut to have a 'single' on Dysart Dynamo, rather than still have to rely on Sir G (which will obviously look loads stronger, but not be as nailed as a 'single')


Maybe poorly explained! :culpability::highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

Yes but the point is that a win for Sir G impacts the destination 'directly'.....
Which if Sir G does win at Dublin, then loses the Supreme, leaves you nothing...

I've added the double you've said as well, but I'll do the other, and that's still the preference.... jsut to have a 'single' on Dysart Dynamo, rather than still have to rely on Sir G (which will obviously look loads stronger, but not be as nailed as a 'single')


Maybe poorly explained! :culpability::highly_amused:

I understood :encouragement: the odds are far greater and obviously there is risk with either. They are 2 different bets in a way.
Depends how firmly you believe DD is the one who shifts if Sir G wins.
Don't think Chevely park would grumble if Sir G was the one to step up.

But the ladbroke odds are from a comparative aspect 'reasonable value' - best priced for both I think.
Whereas the current odds for Sir G winning in Dublin are not. IMO
I doubt that this will improve.

I know he won the maiden he ran in easily, but he needed to as they were all shit and are all still maidens as far as I can tell.
The 2nd and 3rd have both been beaten easily (in similar fashion) by Eric bloodaxe, the goffer and Gringo Daubrelle.

I'm not saying he's a no hoper in Dublin but his price is wrong and purely based on his bumper win, when most of the horses in the novice hurdler division were not tried or highly tried in their bumper season, if they even had one.

 

[Quevega]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

 

[That Horse]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

Pleasing that he has a hobby outside of acquiring shit tons of money from all these winning bets.



When are we changing the forum name from Fat Jockey to Fanny Bettor by the way?