Fat Jockey 'Overall' Yankee - Captain: Spectre

[Kautostar]

Opinions on Native River.

As a previous winner can he win or place again?

Or as an a 11 year old has the ship sailed?

24 hours to add you opinions and to debate.

The cotswold chase was his gold cup. I’d be against having him in at 11yr old. Just recency bias means he’s popular at the moment, may scrape a place if it’s bottomless....but we want to win right???

 

[Spectre]

The following horses have been nominated so far as being in the price range, but without full cases being made as to why they'd be rock solid material.

Price alone doesn't get a horse onto the list, so if anyone wants to make a full case for any of these, or have any new ones fire away.

Nothing goes onto the shortlist unless a rock solid case has been made and we've had the chance to fully debate it. It takes more than a simple nomination to have the Bookies pants down, so are you up for doing the hard yards troops?! :loyal:

Stattler
Galvin
Latest Exhibition
It Came to Pass
Quilixios
Hook Up
Champ
Fakir D'Oudaries
The Bosses Oscar
Column Of Fire
A Plus Tard
Glancing Queen
The Big Breakaway
Eklat de Rire
Chatham Street Lad

 

[Middle_Of_March]

If the Glancing Queen in the MNH is 8/1 or bigger closer to the date she will be a solid place option who is capable of winning that race. Chatham Street Lad in the Marsh if he races in it is also capable but I think the Marsh field will be the smallest it’s been because of Envoi so probably limited to 2 places so CSL maybe a bit risky for a place.

Eklet D’aire or The Big Breakaway will both place in the FNC and capable of beating Monkfish if he has an off day and will hopefully justify a place option.

The best priced Banker at the moment IMHBEO is Consertiesta in the MH. I can’t see her getting beaten if Honey goes to the Churdle.

I’m a plus 1 for the glancing queen too. The race is falling apart, she’s got form at the course, has placed in a grade 1 this year against the males and has the touch of class required.

 

[Spectre]

The cotswold chase was his gold cup. I’d be against having him in at 11yr old. Just recency bias means he’s popular at the moment, may scrape a place if it’s bottomless....but we want to win right???

Win or a rock solid case for a place at a big price KS. Either type could make the final four.

Still more debate to be had with Native River I think. Perhaps he's one to add to the bottom of the shortlist in case it comes up heavy, or is he just too long in the tooth whatever?

If it comes up heavy which 3 horses finish in front of him?

 

[Spectre]

I’m a plus 1 for the glancing queen too. The race is falling apart, she’s got form at the course, has placed in a grade 1 this year against the males and has the touch of class required.

So come on guys. Name three horses that finish ahead of The Glancing Queen. Or will King be tempted to go to the Mares Hurdle over 2m4f (rather than 2 miles in the MNH), with only Concertista to beat now the race looks to be falling apart?

 

[AaronLad]

Altior in the qmcc for me is overpriced. A 4 time festival winner, winner of this particular race twice.
Although a poor reappearance at Kempton has led many to question whether altior retains enough ability to win a race such as the qmcc, especially with chacun pour soi seemingly unbeatable this season.
Using the schloer chase at cheltenham, paddys rewards club chase at leopardstown and the desert orchid chase at Kempton I am of the opinion there's a line that ties put the kettle on, duc des genievres, altior, nube negra and chacun pour soi and its a lot closer than what the prices are suggesting.
Take in to consideration it was altiors reappearance, his festival record, his trainers record in championship races with older horses surely altior has to be in this yankee!!

 

[Spectre]

Altior in the qmcc for me is overpriced. A 4 time festival winner, winner of this particular race twice.
Although a poor reappearance at Kempton has led many to question whether altior retains enough ability to win a race such as the qmcc, especially with chacun pour soi seemingly unbeatable this season.
Using the schloer chase at cheltenham, paddys rewards club chase at leopardstown and the desert orchid chase at Kempton I am of the opinion there's a line that ties put the kettle on, duc des genievres, altior, nube negra and chacun pour soi and its a lot closer than what the prices are suggesting.
Take in to consideration it was altiors reappearance, his festival record, his trainers record in championship races with older horses surely altior has to be in this yankee!!

Altior then folks? A dual winner of the Champion Chase with a good case being made.

The flip side is he's now an 11 year old, with a far from ideal prep. Also there's a possibility he goes up in trip for the Ryanair.

Which side of the debate are you on, and do you have anything else to add, before I decide whether Altior goes on the list or not?

 

[Dandrew99]

Altior then folks? A dual winner of the Champion Chase with a good case being made.

The flip side is he's now an 11 year old, with a far from ideal prep. Also there's a possibility he goes up in trip for the Ryanair.

Which side of the debate are you on, and do you have anything else to add, before I decide whether Altior goes on the list or not?

Personally I can't have Altior at all. As much as I'd love to watch him roll back the years, I don't think there is much doubt that he has regressed. Arguably Chacun would have given prime Altior a race, if he is confirmed to be going here he won't be a great each way price and I'd be far from convinced he would place either. It looks a fairly weak renewal, but there are a fair few around the 155-160 mark who could well be fighting Altior for the places. In my opinion the most likely result for Altior is pulled up when outpaced and retired shortly after.

One I would like to throw into the ring is Put The Kettle On. Mares allowance will obviously be nice, unbeaten and Cheltenham and 16 or the past 17 Arkle winners who have ran here have made the first three. I think she could be a brilliant each way price.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Altior then folks? A dual winner of the Champion Chase with a good case being made.

The flip side is he's now an 11 year old, with a far from ideal prep. Also there's a possibility he goes up in trip for the Ryanair.

Which side of the debate are you on, and do you have anything else to add, before I decide whether Altior goes on the list or not?

All I’ll say about Altiot is that the horse has been a superstar all his career, he owes absolutely nothing, so from an each way yankee perspective if he doesn’t pick up 2 out the way he always has I’d say there’s more chance he is pulled up before the last than there is Nico beating the hell out of him to claim third.
Just my view...

 

[Kautostar]

Altior then folks? A dual winner of the Champion Chase with a good case being made.

The flip side is he's now an 11 year old, with a far from ideal prep. Also there's a possibility he goes up in trip for the Ryanair.

Which side of the debate are you on, and do you have anything else to add, before I decide whether Altior goes on the list or not?

What’s up with everyone today? First native river and now altior, it’s not 2018 anymore guys!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

What do the FJ collective think about Flooring Porter?

Genuinely good value for a place, or a very competitive race where you can see several finishing ahead of him?

24 hours to make the cases for and against and then I'll decide whether he makes the initial list. As many opinions as possible please.

I'd be against FP. It's quite a deep race imo.

Aside from the top two, there's 3 or 4 at similar prices that I'd put ahead of him:

Fury Road Ronald Pump
Sire De Berlais
Roksana

I still like Fury Road from those five. He clearly want right at Christmas and did run a massive race over C&D in 'that' Albert Bartlett.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Fakir D'Oudaries in the Ryanair would fit the bill although not an easy race, could pick out a few like Min, Melon, Allaho, Samcro, Imperial Aura so probably a race to avoid actually.

Column Of Fire wherever he runs, he wins :nonchalance:

A Plus Tard at 7/1 too..... nice festival form, obvious claims as 2nd fav?

I think those 3 are solid shouts

 

[AaronLad]

I'd be against FP. It's quite a deep race imo.

Aside from the top two, there's 3 or 4 at similar prices that I'd put ahead of him:

Fury Road Ronald Pump
Sire De Berlais
Roksana

I still like Fury Road from those five. He clearly want right at Christmas and did run a massive race over C&D in 'that' Albert Bartlett.

I'm sorry but this is the Cheltenham festival and you're going to find most races are deep and highly competitive. Out of the 4 you mention at similar prices Flooring Porter easily beat SDB and Fury Road. Roksana isn't certain to line up in the stayers. Ronald pump has genuine chances and will be rattling late on along with paisley park, but unfortunately for them the ship would've sailed by the time they get in top gear. Furthermore you say Fury Road wasn't quite right at xmas , sent off 13\8 fav would certainly appear somebody thought he was in fact 'quite right'.
More negative for paisley park is Horses that have lost their stayers crown, and then attempted to regain it haven't been very successful in this race, inglis drever regained his title but was injured the year he lost it, so never actually lost it. You actually have to go all the way back to 1986 when crimson embers regained the title he first won in 1982.
thyme hill must have a chance but the way he got caught last time out, and last season's 'hard luck story' in the Albert Bartlett where I would actually argue he just wasn't good enough, he doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm sorry but this is the Cheltenham festival and you're going to find most races are deep and highly competitive. Out of the 4 you mention at similar prices Flooring Porter easily beat SDB and Fury Road. Roksana isn't certain to line up in the stayers. Ronald pump has genuine chances and will be rattling late on along with paisley park, but unfortunately for them the ship would've sailed by the time they get in top gear. Furthermore you say Fury Road wasn't quite right at xmas , sent off 13\8 fav would certainly appear somebody thought he was in fact 'quite right'.
More negative for paisley park is Horses that have lost their stayers crown, and then attempted to regain it haven't been very successful in this race, inglis drever regained his title but was injured the year he lost it, so never actually lost it. You actually have to go all the way back to 1986 when crimson embers regained the title he first won in 1982.
thyme hill must have a chance but the way he got caught last time out, and last season's 'hard luck story' in the Albert Bartlett where I would actually argue he just wasn't good enough, he doesn't fill me with confidence.

He wasn't 'quite right' - FR scoped dirty after the race, like many of Gordon's at Xmas.

I stand my initial comments and don't see FP winning this. It'll be a surprise to me if SDB and FR (maybe even the Storyteller) don't reverse the form at Cheltenham.

 

[AaronLad]

Faugheen_Machine if you could post the link to your information, I will stand corrected with regards fury roads well being at Christmas.
Even if he didn't run to form, although ratings and finishing position suggest he did, 9 1\4 lengths is still a lot to be able to turn around on the basis he wasn't 'quite right'.
I'd love to hear reasons why you think horses he convincingly beat at Xmas can reverse placing rather than you just stating it, appears you disagree with me but can't be very thorough with your trail of thought other than 'Gordon's horses scoped badly '.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Genuinely good value for a place, or a very competitive race where you can see several finishing ahead of him?

Definitely the latter.

Paisley Park, Thyme Hill, Roksana, The Storyteller, Sire Du Berlais, and Fury Road all horses I would expect to beat Flooring Porter. It would not surprise me if Ronald Pump does either. Then you’ve got Kemboy if he runs? Paul’s Saga could be anything?

Think there’s other races offering better chances.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Hes one you would want to know for sure if its heavy or not i would think,if its got to be done on the Monday that could de difficult.
16/1 on heavy ground i would be on e/w thats for sure.

Difficult this far out. Soft/Heavy for sure, good to soft not at all.

Sorry, was meant to quote the post above this one :lemo:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Faugheen_Machine if you could post the link to your information, I will stand corrected with regards fury roads well being at Christmas.
Even if he didn't run to form, although ratings and finishing position suggest he did, 9 1\4 lengths is still a lot to be a or to turn around on the basis he wasn't 'quite right'.
I'd love to hear reasons why you think horses he convincingly beat at Xmas can reverse placing rather than you just stating it, appears you disagree with me but can't be very thorough with your trail of thought other than 'Gordon's horses scoped badly '.

You seem upset that I disagree with your opinion. :abnormal:

Spectre asked what our thoughts are on FP and I gave him mine.

SBD is a two times course and distance Cheltenham festival winner. The latest win was off 152 in a competitive handicap, not an easy task. Previous Cheltenham form is a huge thing for me and he ticks those boxes.

The Storyteller also has really solid Cheltenham festival form and has proved his versatility between chases and hurdles. He just run a huge race in the Irish Gold Cup which proves his well being. This is his only entry I think

Fury Road - a close 3rd in the AB. They could (perhaps should) have gone over fences this season but they held him back for a crack at this. There isn't much between him and TH on the AB run and his Christmas run is easily excused, imo.

All three are trained by GE and I think it's common knowledge that his horses were under a cloud at Christmas so I don't think it's stretching it to think they could all improve past FP.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I quiet like the Stayers as one race to seriously look at in terms of this bet. Yes we have 2 fancied at the top of market in TH and PP but there are a fair few at nice prices that could win the race imo, as well as having place claims. Yes a challenge finding the actual one to pick but i am sure theres enough brains on here to give it a right go and work it out!
For me it would be between Flooring P,Fury R and RonaldP as the most likely and all at double figure prices.,
FP has come out and won well in a race that included FR, but i can see FR reversing that if hes back to the form in cheltenham last year, i cannot rate that race highly enough with TH,Monkfish and LE all running well this season. I am convinced FR was not right lto, reports suggest that too, and if he turns up hes way overpriced.
The one i like most though is Ronald Pump. Hes got the experience of last year's Stayers where he was unlucky in running,had to switch for room and made a mistake at the last, but kept going to the line.
His last run behind Honeysuckle over 2 and a half m looked to me a performance from an improved horse, his jumping was better, and i can see him going close again this year.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

It came to pass won last year. Ignoring Billaway he finished 18 1/4 lengths in front of anything likely to run this year.

What evidence is there that anything else has improved by 19 lengths to turn things around? What evidence is there that ICTP has regressed?

Finished 4th on his comeback after a 242 break - weakened towards the business end of the race which I’d guess was due to fitness. A nice blow out, this will have been the target all season.

Still available at 10/1. 10/1...no brainer for me in an each way Yankee.