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Fat Jockey 'Overall' Yankee - Captain: Spectre

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Spectre

You have the honour of overall yankee captain (What this means, is you can essentially pick a horse from any of the four days. It doesn't need to be one per day either.)


The point of these yankee's, is for us all to back them for (min stakes is fine) so we have a collective yankee to support during the week! With it being collective yankee, as much engagement as possible is encouraged.




Win only, each way, handicaps, shorties, no-hopers, popular horses, personal fancies, tips from the other yankees, cases made elsewhere, random guesses... all up to you .....Your decision will be final.


Final selection to be put up on Monday 15th March, by 15:00 please.


Okay guys, thanks for all the valuable input. It's a done deal, and the final overall yankee with best prices available is as follows:

Happygolucky 4/1
Champagne Platinum 7/1
Farclas 8/1
Time To Get Up 5/1

The best current available combined yankee for a 1 point stake is with Hills who give a 3751 win point return, a 3844 each way point return, or a 133 place return.

Fingers-crossed that luck stays on our side and we can celebrate a nice tidy win.
 
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Shortlist

It Came To Pass
A Plus Tard
Put The Kettle On
 
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Given we have 28 races to go at for the overall yankee I think we can afford to hunt the best value in the markets, so I intend to use the each way safetynet approach as I want all four legs to land. The baseline of the place return needs to make it worth our collective hard work

I'd suggest initially we put together two pots of horses to work from.

Pot 1 - The most likely Festival winners that are 5/1 and above (and remain so at the point of the deadline)

Pot 2 - The best value horses that are likely to place regardless of price.

For now we can keep open how many horses we use from each pot. It's too early to get fixed in our thinking given we have more than four weeks to make final decisions.

The ones that make our lists are the ones where the most compelling cases have been made. It'll be the Captains choice whether the case made is strong enough for the horse to make the list. The case can be made from racereading, trends, statistics, previous race patterns, or any other method you want. As long as the case is strong enough the horse will make the list. Please don't be offended if I'm not buying into it. If I don't I'll say why, and remain open to further pursasion. Also if you've already made a case for a horse in one of the other daily yankees feel free to make the same case here. It won't get picked up otherwise. And I don't care if the horse is obvious, still make the case. Shorter priced horses get turned over all the time. Say why it won't, and why it's a must to be included.

It would also be very useful to get the always excellent input from the stats and trends guys. What range of prices typically hit in each race? Where could our race sweetspots be? Trainer stats, age stats, breeding stats, course form, returning horses, previous winners, etc, etc, etc. Do we just pick he better value Willie, Gordon, and Nicky horses? Make the case generally, or specifically, and either agree or disagree with selections by making the trends and stats case.

My job here will be to coordinate and do the final make-up of the bet, so I am challenging the entire FJ collective to produce the vey best research and analysis to overlay against your individual selections. It doesn't matter whether it's regurgitated from elsewhere or whether it's new work, just make sure you have your say. And when a selection is made by someone else add your own opinion too. Say if you agree or disagree and say why by adding any additional material, research, or thoughts.

And finally, we are going to land this, so let's leave no stone unturned in the quest to find the best each way gems at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. This is our own private war against the bookmakers, and our collective stake on this yankee is going to have at least one Bookmakers trousers down. :victorious:
 
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Spectre your confidence here has me fully believing that my Vegas trip is going to happen when you pull this monster Yankee off
 
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Something else worth adding I think. I'm suggesting this bet is non runner no bet, so don't be afraid to nominate something from the handicaps as well as the graded races. I'm not averse to one leg having some risk attached to it. They all do to some degree anyway. It's not the optmum scenario but I'd accept that in the worst case our yankee becomes a trixie because of a non-runner.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Spectre your confidence here has me fully believing that my Vegas trip is going to happen when you pull this monster Yankee off
Click to expand...

We're all going together MoM. The only condition is we have to dress as Fat Jockey Elvis Impersonaters for the entire trip. :biggrin-new:

You'll get to be young Elvis, and I'll be him in the Cheeseburger and Coke days. :cool:
 
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Stattler at 9/1 is a winnable over 5/1 shot.... although what price he'll be nearer the day will be probably half that.


Galvin or Latest Exhibition if holding at around 5/1 in the NH Chase would be rock solid given the 'class' angles.


It Came to Pass at 8/1 is perfectly fair given he is the reigning champion and holds Billaway who can't jump.


Quilixios 6/1 would be popular on here and he'll remain the right price is Zanahiyr stays on track.

Mares Novice Hurdle, no standout in that but Hook Up showed up well and has an experience angle on her side.

Champ or Kemboy would probably be 5/1+ and look to have winning chances, if they turn up.

Fakir D'Oudaries in the Ryanair would fit the bill although not an easy race, could pick out a few like Min, Melon, Allaho, Samcro, Imperial Aura so probably a race to avoid actually.

The Bosses Oscar goes off fav and wins....

Column Of Fire wherever he runs, he wins :nonchalance:

A Plus Tard at 7/1 too..... nice festival form, obvious claims as 2nd fav?







In terms of horses odds against who I can't see 3 better than.

Honeysuckle in the CH
Elimay in the Mares Chase
Energumene isn't gonna finish out of the 3 IMO.
Bob Olinger I don't think will either.
Al Boum Photo too, an obvious one.
 
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Spectre said:
Something else worth adding I think. I'm suggesting this bet is non runner no bet.
Click to expand...

Deadline for this is Monday I think, other than the private firms and Hills I can't think of any bookie that won't be NRNB by then and of course the decs will be in for the first couple of days so barring another Ricci/Vatour shambles we should have a pretty good idea where they run...
 
Istabraq said:
Deadline for this is Monday I think, other than the private firms and Hills I can't think of any bookie that won't be NRNB by then and of course the decs will be in for the first couple of days so barring another Ricci/Vatour shambles we should have a pretty good idea where they run...
Click to expand...

Yes, good point Istabraq. I guess we just need to be aware of Willie's curve balls.
 
Spectre I'd like to suggest we put Flooring Porter in to the pot of 'best value' horses. At between 12\1 and 16\1 that represents good value for a rapidly improving 6yo trained by a trainer not unknown for winning\placing championship races with improving hurdlers. Since reverting to front running tactics he has given a 12l beating to current Pertemps market leader The Bosses Oscar and won the grade 1 Christmas hurdle at lepardstown by 6 lengths, with last years pertemps 1-2 sire du berlais\the storyteller and Albert Bartlett 3rd Fury Road in behind.
With form figures reading 1 1 2 1 1 @ 3m+ a proper test of stamina is what this lad loves, and with the stayers hurdle sure to provide just that, yet more improvement is expected from this talented young stayer.
The British horses are sure to provide the toughest assignment to date for Flooring Porter, but at 4x the price in places surely the value lies with him.
 
I pretty sure Flooring Porter has been tipped up somewhere by Tom Segal for the Stayers Hurdle as well
 
I know ihe splits opinion on here but one with the best ew value for me is Native River in the GC, still 16/1. We know its a weak field for a GC, we know Native will run well, jump round and give his all, is a previous winner of the race and is only going to run in the GC. Has won 3 out of 4 Grade 2s this season by around a combined 25 lengths. In last years GC was never really travelling after starting slowly but still managed 4th. Seems in much better nick this year and he probably doesn't realise 11 year olds aren't supposed to win this!!
 
What do the FJ collective think about Flooring Porter?

Genuinely good value for a place, or a very competitive race where you can see several finishing ahead of him?

24 hours to make the cases for and against and then I'll decide whether he makes the initial list. As many opinions as possible please.
 
If the Glancing Queen in the MNH is 8/1 or bigger closer to the date she will be a solid place option who is capable of winning that race. Chatham Street Lad in the Marsh if he races in it is also capable but I think the Marsh field will be the smallest it’s been because of Envoi so probably limited to 2 places so CSL maybe a bit risky for a place.

Eklet D’aire or The Big Breakaway will both place in the FNC and capable of beating Monkfish if he has an off day and will hopefully justify a place option.

The best priced Banker at the moment IMHBEO is Consertiesta in the MH. I can’t see her getting beaten if Honey goes to the Churdle.
 
Rhinos1968 said:
I know ihe splits opinion on here but one with the best ew value for me is Native River in the GC, still 16/1. We know its a weak field for a GC, we know Native will run well, jump round and give his all, is a previous winner of the race and is only going to run in the GC. Has won 3 out of 4 Grade 2s this season by around a combined 25 lengths. In last years GC was never really travelling after starting slowly but still managed 4th. Seems in much better nick this year and he probably doesn't realise 11 year olds aren't supposed to win this!!
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Opinions on Native River.

As a previous winner can he win or place again?

Or as an a 11 year old has the ship sailed?

24 hours to add you opinions and to debate.
 
Spectre said:
Opinions on Native River.

As a previous winner can he win or place again?

Or as an a 11 year old has the ship sailed?

24 hours to add you opinions and to debate.
Click to expand...

Hes one you would want to know for sure if its heavy or not i would think,if its got to be done on the Monday that could de difficult.
16/1 on heavy ground i would be on e/w thats for sure.
 
Spectre said:
Opinions on Native River.

As a previous winner can he win or place again?

Or as an a 11 year old has the ship sailed?

24 hours to add you opinions and to debate.
Click to expand...

As an out and out stayer with a recent decent run, then it would be foolish IMO to rule him out. Yes he can certainly get a place but unless its on the Heavy side of soft I can't personally envisage him winning this.
 
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