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Equine Flu Outbreak

BHA announce positive test for equine flu at Simon Crisfords Newmarket yard
 
Let them race.

It’s flu, they’d find it in every year in the UK if they tested every yard every December!
 
Geordieboy83 said:
BHA announce positive test for equine flu at Simon Crisfords Newmarket yard
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This could be bad news. The BHA has two main problems:

1) They have nailed their colours to the mast by, effectively, saying that racing will not resume until the outbreak has been contained. It is difficult to see how they can be confident enough to say that right now and that must be likely to delay any resumption of racing. Their ability to be confident is impacted by the second problem:

2) I am no vet but, based on conversations with knowledgeable people and factoring in common-sense, it would seem that a very effective way of spreading the virus is to have vets move from horse to horse taking swabs. Unless they change their clothing between each horse (highly doubtful) then they can become carriers. This is not an issue if there is no virus to transmit but there was a virus at Crisford's yard which means that any horse subsequently swabbed (after an infected horse) could have had the virus passed onto it. Therefore, even if such horses tested negative at the time there is a possibility that they might test positive now. Factoring in the incubation period of up to three days then it would seem that the BHA have to go back to any yards tested by same vets who went to Crisford's yard and re-test those horses. I don't see how that can be done by tonight to allow for a resumption by Wednesday and, of more concern, there has to be a worry that more horses (and more trainers) have had the virus passed onto them. Which brings us back to problem 1)

It doesn't matter how strong a strain it is or the fact that battling with sick horses is a daily issue for yards. The BHA has backed itself into a corner and it is isn't clear how they can get themselves out of it.
 
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Bayoffreedom said:
This could be bad news. The BHA has two main problems:

1) They have nailed their colours to the mast by, effectively, saying that racing will not resume until the outbreak has been contained. It is difficult to see how they can be confident enough to say that right now and that must be likely to delay any resumption of racing. Their ability to be confident is impacted by the second problem:

2) I am no vet but, based on conversations with knowledgeable people and factoring in common-sense, it would seem that a very effective way of spreading the virus is to have vets move from horse to horse taking swabs. Unless they change their clothing between each horse (highly doubtful) then they can become carriers. This is not an issue if there is no virus to transmit but there was a virus at Crisford's yard which means that any horse subsequently swabbed (after an infected horse) could have had the virus passed onto it. Therefore, even if such horses tested negative at the time there is a possibility that they might test positive now. Factoring in the incubation period of up to three days then it would seem that the BHA have to go back to any yards tested by same vets who went to Crisford's yard and re-test those horses. I don't see how that can be done by tonight to allow for a resumption by Wednesday and, of more concern, there has to be a worry that more horses (and more trainers) have had the virus passed onto them. Which brings us back to problem 1)

It doesn't matter how strong a strain it is or the fact that battling with sick horses is a daily issue for yards. The BHA has backed itself into a corner and it is isn't clear how they can get themselves out of it.
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Just got to sit tight and pray ����
 
Bayoffreedom said:
This could be bad news. The BHA has two main problems:

1) They have nailed their colours to the mast by, effectively, saying that racing will not resume until the outbreak has been contained. It is difficult to see how they can be confident enough to say that right now and that must be likely to delay any resumption of racing. Their ability to be confident is impacted by the second problem:

2) I am no vet but, based on conversations with knowledgeable people and factoring in common-sense, it would seem that a very effective way of spreading the virus is to have vets move from horse to horse taking swabs. Unless they change their clothing between each horse (highly doubtful) then they can become carriers. This is not an issue if there is no virus to transmit but there was a virus at Crisford's yard which means that any horse subsequently swabbed (after an infected horse) could have had the virus passed onto it. Therefore, even if such horses tested negative at the time there is a possibility that they might test positive now. Factoring in the incubation period of up to three days then it would seem that the BHA have to go back to any yards tested by same vets who went to Crisford's yard and re-test those horses. I don't see how that can be done by tonight to allow for a resumption by Wednesday and, of more concern, there has to be a worry that more horses (and more trainers) have had the virus passed onto them. Which brings us back to problem 1)

It doesn't matter how strong a strain it is or the fact that battling with sick horses is a daily issue for yards. The BHA has backed itself into a corner and it is isn't clear how they can get themselves out of it.
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With the greatest of respect.
If they haven't got a procedure to fully ensure that your second point is not an issue then we're all f**ked.
 
quevega said:
With the greatest of respect.
If they haven't got a procedure to fully ensure that your second point is not an issue then we're all f**ked.
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You would like to think so, wouldn't you? The biggest issue is that they are striving for zero tolerance of an endemic issue. Hopefully, they will find a way to 'walk back' this position and let racing go ahead soon.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
You would like to think so, wouldn't you? The biggest issue is that they are striving for zero tolerance of an endemic issue. Hopefully, they will find a way to 'walk back' this position and let racing go ahead soon.
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agree with that, I've mentioned as much previously.
endemic is endemic. Shouldn't come as a shock.
I'm surprised there's been so few.
I assume they can tell if the strain is active or not. (and these are what's been reported)
And not just present.
 
Henrietta Knight mentioned on racing tv last night that Donald Mccain told her that you cannot tell which 6 horses of his have tested positive as they are showing no symptoms.
Which is what you'd expect from a vaccinated animal.
This is beginning to look like the biggest overreaction since
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0kNbZl3yGY
 
quevega said:
Henrietta Knight mentioned on racing tv last night that Donald Mccain told her that you cannot tell which 6 horses of his have tested positive as they are showing no symptoms.
Which is what you'd expect from a vaccinated animal.
This is beginning to look like the biggest overreaction since
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0kNbZl3yGY
Click to expand...

Brilliant
Feet n mouth lol
 
Why did he have the first three tested then?
 
quevega said:
Henrietta Knight mentioned on racing tv last night that Donald Mccain told her that you cannot tell which 6 horses of his have tested positive as they are showing no symptoms.
Which is what you'd expect from a vaccinated animal.
This is beginning to look like the biggest overreaction since
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0kNbZl3yGY
Click to expand...

Contradicts this...

"I have been aware of the recent news about equine influenza outbreaks in France and Ireland, and over the last couple of days, I have been concerned about the health status of a small number of horses in the yard," McCain
 
So BHA latest update is another 700 tests have come back negative. So out of 2000 horses only 10 have so far tested positive?

Weekend racing looking likely.
 
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