Epsom Derby 2021

[jack1092]

Yep remember it well.
I was a shrewdie that year, backed Masar at 25/1 for the Guinneas and 50/1 for the Derby in the Winter, cashed out the Derby bet and let the Guinneas bet ride.

Re the ground I know they were faced with a dilemma earlier in the week but the rain was always on the radar and from Thursday morning it was confirmed to hit the track but they still got the hoses out Thursday night.
As FinalFurlong91 said earlier what is wrong with genuinely quick ground, it's what these top level flat horses were bred to race on...

My point was more just regarding what today's ground might well turn out like, not necessarily sticky.

In saying that, watering is annoying, but some people more knowledgable than me have stuck up for the clerk and suggested he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. I've seen it mentioned that it's as risky having the rain they did yesterday on unwatered G/F ground. Personally, it is what it is and if you take antepost bets these days, take it into consideration rather than drive yourself mad....but that's just me.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

My point was more just regarding what today's ground might well turn out like, not necessarily sticky.

I get that and it may well turn out to be the case, but no question his watering on Thursday contributed to the conditions for the Oaks…

 

[Lobos]

Mohaafeth pulled out

 

[Supermaster]

Aidan has a fantastic record in the Derby as well. 8 wins inc 3 of the last 4 and this time there's no need to wonder which is his real horse for the race!

BB ticks all the boxes and so is a short price. He was more impressive in his 2nd run than his is beating more or less the same set of horses.
Mac Swiney franked the form in the shorter and heavier Irish 2000 but Flying Visit disappointed in the Dante; Fernado Vichi has won since yet Lough Derg has flopped since.
So BB's form isn't as clear cut as on first impression. Willie Carson thought it shaped as a non stayer. I can see that in his first season run but not his second but who am I to argue with the great man! So I think this short priced horse is opposable despite the obvious plusses.

Mac Swiney seems to need softer ground. I was impressed how Hurricane Lane overtook the clear leader in the straight at York. BB will want to be handy early and kick early in the straight if he runs like his last two wins. Will he be vulnerable to a late finisher?

John Leeper has a line form advantage over Balding's Youth Spirit

Southern Lights looked very unlucky in BB's 2nd trial. I don't think he would have caught the winner but had he got through on the inside he wouldn't have been too far away.

Third Realm ran green at Lingfield but the jockey spent a lot of time looking round so was a very comfortable winner who seemed to handle the similar course well

Selections: Hurricane Lane, John Leeper, Third Realm, Southern Lights

 

[Supermaster]

Wow I didn't see that one though Adayar was a bit unlucky in the Lingfield race since Third Realm got first run. In this race Adam Kirby turned the tables by overcoming the draw disadvantage and had a better position coming down the hill. BB proved to be a non stayer. Brave run up the inside but he kicked on well once in the clear. Hurricane Ride was in a good position but got beat by two better horses. Despite the high prices the front two could be very good horses but not as good as Snowfall!

 

[Supermaster]

Am I a lone idiot in thinking Adayar has a chance at a stupid price ?
Just flicking through his form he looks all stamina and the better ground (assuming it does stay quick) may well bring improvement, 66/1 for those with 365 accs looks massive although waiting for the extra places is probably the sensible play...

Well spotted Istabraq

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I think its set up for a shock result ista

Don't think anything sets a high standard

like youth spirit, lone eagle and gear up at big prices

What has bolshoi ballet really done? Not a lot imo, certainly not enough to be 6/4 for the Derby

The horses hes beaten in Ireland are useless

Well I got it right

Just picked the wrong outsiders hahaha

 

[That Horse]

One of the craziest outcomes of today is that Mohaafeth is now 5/2 joint fav for King Edward at Ascot.

He hasn't even proven he stays!

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I really hope Lone Eagle runs in the queen's vase over 1m6f

Bet they wish they'd left him in after the watering/rain

 

[BigChaang]

I’ve been playing Adayar and One Ruler who I think has been totally forgotten.
The AOB exodus has probably killed the hope of any 5/6 places being offered, every chance 4 places will appear after tomorrows decs but I’ve secured upwards of 33s on both so have the price.
All eyes on the draw...

Nice One Istabraq :triumphant: . , Well Done there , Lovely price too ! .:glee:.

 

[Lobos]

Balshoi Ballet struck into very early in the race which probably accounts for his poor showing.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great pick Ista. Not a moment's worry - well done mate:encouragement::very_drunk:

 

[Craigy14]

Balshoi Ballet struck into very early in the race which probably accounts for his poor showing.

Come on Lobos haha simply nowhere near good enough.

Adayer was a very good winner, outstayed them all imo, who needs John Leeper Kirby haha!

Ps not a penny on.

 

[Craigy14]

Istabraq Cracking pick, from what I remember of the the Sandown trial he took a good while to get going but he handled the track beautifully yesterday :applause:

 

[Quevega]

Well done Ista.
The jockey and horse deserve enormous credit.
The horse was brave and gave it everything and Kirby was excellent at the start, when muscling his way past the other low drawn horses.
Then the squeeze through on the rail was Ballsy.
I would say at least 2/3rds of the jockeys riding would have bottled that and looked to switch.
I've seen world class jockeys not go for gaps twice as big as they're frightened of going over the rail.

Obviously it's worth pointing out that I'd jump off a horse as soon as it hit about 10mph :highly_amused:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/rac...y-and-brave-adayar-secured-derby-glory/493683

 

[parimutuel]

I’ve been playing Adayar and One Ruler who I think has been totally forgotten.
The AOB exodus has probably killed the hope of any 5/6 places being offered, every chance 4 places will appear after tomorrows decs but I’ve secured upwards of 33s on both so have the price.
All eyes on the draw...

Istabraq Great shout that Ista :very_drunk:

 

[Lobos]

Come on Lobos haha simply nowhere near good enough.

Adayer was a very good winner, outstayed them all imo, who needs John Leeper Kirby haha!

Ps not a penny on.

Running for a mile with a gash on my leg after being kicked by a horse wouldn't he my idea of fun but I get what you are saying :highly_amused:

P S. I didnt have a penny on either. Sort of wished I'd gone against my principles and backed the 2nd at 150/1 after Saxon flagged up the stall 10 stat but hey ho, that's life.

 

[Lobos]

Nice bet Ista. When he went from 66/1 to 16/1 in 5 minutes before the off you just sensed something special was going to happen. Super performance.

 

[Ribocco]

150s still available on bet365, may be worth a small stake punt each way

Thank you for this post. Decided to have a stab at 150/1.

 

[Ribocco]

Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.

Also thanks for this one in the first place :eagerness: