• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Epsom Derby 2021

Saxon Warrior

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 1, 2019
Messages
10,354
Reaction score
6,386
Points
113
The Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown this afternoon, is often the earliest trial of Derby prospects for AOB and the other main Irish trainers.

There are often one or two horses that can come out of this race and impact/win the Epsom Derby, and the Irish Derby too.

Those that run well here can often go onto the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial prior to a run at Epsom.

Today it was interesting to see that Aidan had cut his entries down to just two declarations, with the early favourite and stable jockey siding with, BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden
(not ideal for just an 8 day break before a trip to France, but such was the compacted 2yo season last year).

His action on his course maiden win over 8F on better ground last October suggested that the ground would suit today.

In a slow run race, he did well to control the pace up front and lengthen into a winning lead a furlong out.

He looked the part there, breeding is Galileo out of an unraced half-sister to a French Oaks second, and his brother, Southern France stayed 12F “standing on his head”, and he was 2nd in the Queens Vase, and 3rd in the St Leger.

Pre-race as high as 33/1 for the Derby, and Post-race 14/1, cut then to 10/1 in general, & as low as 8/1.

(Some bookies had to cut the horse twice, in quick succession, which could be a good sign that enough people were impressed with him to move the odds twice)


Aidan O’Brien said, after the win: “You’d be delighted with him as he only ran on soft ground (last season) and will have learned a lot today. He’ll probably come back here for the Derrinstown if all goes well with him. He’s straightforward and, while you’re never sure, he should get a mile and a half. He goes to the line well.

“High Definition will go for one of the Derby trials. We didn’t want to give him two runs before the Derby, but we thought this horse would be able for two. He’s in full work and we’re very happy with him.”
 
Last edited:
He probably won't be good enough to win a Derby but a middle/long distance prospect i liked as a 2yo was Martyn meades Lone Eagle

Won the Zetland stakes looking like the further he goes the better

By Galileo out of a Duke of marmalade mare he has stamina all over his pedigree so could be one to run a big race in the leger

One to follow as he gradually steps up in distance i reckon
 
I've added Sir Lamorak @ 25/1. I was really impressed with his win at Leopardstown.

According to ATR he ran a time that was about 5 lengths quicker overall than Bolshoi Ballet, was faster late on, and did it all whilst carrying 2lbs more.

Mindful it was a slowly run race so it might have looked more impressive than it was, and 25/1 is still quite tight, but I was very impressed.
 
Derab 28/1

Finished second to La Barossa on debut, to say he was given a tender ride would be an understatement

Id be fairly confident that if they had met again that form wouldve been reversed

Half brother to enable by Sea the stars so certainly has the breeding to excel over 10-12f and has entries in the dante and this

Fingers crossed he wins tomorrow and then I’m on at a good price
wpml_good.gif
 
Derab 28/1

Finished second to La Barossa on debut, to say he was given a tender ride would be an understatement

Id be fairly confident that if they had met again that form wouldve been reversed

Half brother to enable by Sea the stars so certainly has the breeding to excel over 10-12f and has entries in the dante and this

Fingers crossed he wins tomorrow and then I’m on at a good price
wpml_good.gif


....Derab to win today & Derby 33-1 Sky.
 
Not going to completely give up on him

Was a promising run, he looked a bit green and didnt have the pace of the winner who also looks very useful

Hopefully improvement to come over further

Not ideal though
 
Not going to completely give up on him

Was a promising run, he looked a bit green and didnt have the pace of the winner who also looks very useful

Hopefully improvement to come over further

Not ideal though

I'd say the top 3 are top horses. I guess we'll soon find out.
 
Added Lone Eagle at 33s with a free bet

A heart bet more than a head bet just in case he wins on friday
 
Lots of blue for Van Gogh in recent days. 20's into as short at 10's. Ryan Moore did an interview with Kevin Blake (on his twitter) and by Ryan's standard he sounded borderline excited about Van Gogh. I think he is going to be a complete tool.
 
Lots of blue for Van Gogh in recent days. 20's into as short at 10's. Ryan Moore did an interview with Kevin Blake (on his twitter) and by Ryan's standard he sounded borderline excited about Van Gogh. I think he is going to be a complete tool.

Van Gogh has been smashed up, presumably before he shows his hand in the Guineas. 25 into 7 on Sky in less than 3 weeks. I remember Love was smashed up for the Oaks pre 1000 Guineas last year, hopefully its a similar move by AOB mob
 
Wembley has been backed into favouritism for the 2000 Guineas this week and is still a general 14s for the Derby. He was staying on well in his races last year and I think going up in distance will suit him and his pedigree backs this up. However, O'Brien has mentioned that he thinks he is more of a miler but if he wins on Saturday, would he still give the Derby a miss? I'm going to take a chance and take the 14s.
 
Big odds cut for Mohaafeth in the Derby betting; 33/1 into 8/1. He went for a leisurely jog in the 4:50 at Newmarket today and won by 5 lengths, Haggas saying he'll go straight to Epsom now.

Unforgotten has already franked the form, be interesting if echo point does the same tomorrow at Newmarket.
 
He was very impressive but that's an awful price
 
He was very impressive but that's an awful price

Agreed re the price.

I guess we're about to enter silly season where every O'Brien winner at Chester will contest favouritism for Epsom plus the Dante still to come. Mohaafeth will surely drift a bit following those.

It just appears the bookies have got very jittery regards any bit of form this year, more so than normal - case in point, Cheltenham '22 prices.

However, I'm on Mohaafeth at 50/1 each way and managed to get him 162/1 win only on exchange after he beat echo point. I'm thinking he has an each way shout but that price was irresistible. Haggas thinks he's a Derby horse, I like the trainer so here's hoping!
 
Anyone else think the run of Lucky Vega on Saturday puts him bang in the mix for this ?
 
Will he stay 1m4f?

he might get 10f but looking at his pedigree the Derby trip could be a stretch
 
....Hills have to win Chester Vase & Derby;

Sir Lamorak 22-1
Wirko 40-1
Law of the Sea 80-1
 
Will he stay 1m4f?

he might get 10f but looking at his pedigree the Derby trip could be a stretch

It’s always the obvious question for horses at this stage of their career but he is a Feb foal so will be more advanced physically than most in the field.
The fav is a May colt, I haven’t looked at updated stats but I couldn’t have a horse in this who has barely reached his 3rd birthday.
I’ll do some more work nearer the time but Lucky Vega’s run suggested to me he’d be OK, when he hit the rising ground he found another gear, sure an extra half mile is an ask but 33/1 looks a reasonable dart to throw...