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Epsom Derby 2021

parimutuel said:
Saxon Warrior BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden.

With Makaloun winning yesterday at Chantilly, the form of that race last October is stacking up nicely. Two of the four colts have won on reappearance with the other two still to race and one of the fillies is also doing well. Gear Up won the race that day and could still prove to be good value for the Derby @ 28/1 and Arc @ 66/1.
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I agree on GEAR UP.

Because he has a Group 1 win, and would've been penalised in any Derby trial, he's been saved for the Dante.

An unusual prep for a Johnston horse.

I like him for the St Leger and got Bet365 to quote him for that race on Monday.

2 wins at York already, he could make it 3 out of 3 today.
 
The great Willie Carson just said he doesn't think Balshoi Ballet will stay the Derby distance. He would like to ride High Definition in the race.
 
Didn't see this listed already on here so;

29 entries remain | 14 Irish-trained

THE CAZOO DERBY (Group 1) (British Champions Series)

EPSOM DOWNS. SATURDAY, 5TH JUNE

Horse Wgt Owner Trainer
  • Adayar (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
  • Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Earlswood (GB) 9 0 G. Davies Johnny Murtagh IRE
  • El Drama (IRE) 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Roger Varian
  • Etonian (IRE) 9 0 Julie Wood Richard Hannon
  • Gear Up (IRE) 9 0 Teme Valley Mark Johnston
  • Gloucestershire (USA) 9 0 Team Valor & Manton Park Martyn Meade
  • Hector de Maris (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • High Definition (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith/Sue Magnier/Michael Tabor/Westerberg Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Hurricane Lane (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
  • John Leeper (IRE) 9 0 Anamoine Ltd Ed Dunlop
  • Kyprios (IRE) 9 0 Moyglare Stud Farm & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Lone Eagle (IRE) 9 0 Ballylinch Stud & Aquis Farm Martyn Meade
  • Mac Swiney (IRE) 9 0 Jackie Bolger Jim Bolger IRE
  • Mohaafeth (IRE) 9 0 Shadwell Estate Company Ltd William Haggas
  • Mojo Star (IRE) 9 0 Amo Racing Limited Richard Hannon
  • One Ruler (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
  • Sandhurst (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Seattle Creek (GB) 9 0 Luke Comer Luke Comer IRE
  • Seattle Sound (IRE) 9 0 Luke Comer Luke Comer IRE
  • Sir Lamorak (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Southern Lights (IRE) 9 0 Aquis Racing & Al Mamoura Partnership Joseph Patrick O'Brien IRE
  • Stay Well (GB) 9 0 Ben & Sir Martyn Arbib Hughie Morrison
  • Taipan (FR) 9 0 Fiona Carmichael Jessica Harrington IRE
  • The Mediterranean (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Third Realm (GB) 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Roger Varian
  • Van Gogh (USA) 9 0 Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier & Diane Nagle Aidan O’Brien IRE
  • Yibir (GB) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
  • Youth Spirit (IRE) 9 0 Ahmad Al Shaikh Andrew Balding
 
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Which ones of Aidan's will turn up, out of those 8?

Probably at least 4.

Which is the outsider with a hidden big chance to upset the applecart, that stays all day, travels without pulling, and most likely has Galileo as a dad?

Looking back at the pedigrees, race planning, entries and videos, I think the answer to my own question is probably
THE MEDITERRANEAN
Should he make it as far as the 48-hour decs.
He does look a St Leger type, and I will try and get him added to the Exchange market for that race.

Derby 40/1
Derby Exchange 140.0
St Leger 40/1
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Which ones of Aidan's will turn up, out of those 8?

Probably at least 4.

Which is the outsider with a hidden big chance to upset the applecart, that stays all day, travels without pulling, and most likely has Galileo as a dad?

Looking back at the pedigrees, race planning, entries and videos, I think the answer to my own question is probably
THE MEDITERRANEAN
Should he make it as far as the 48-hour decs.
He does look a St Leger type, and I will try and get him added to the Exchange market for that race.

Derby 40/1
Derby Exchange 140.0
St Leger 40/1
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Funnily enough, I went through the AOB squad from that list last night as well and was wondering which horse could potentially be the sneaky fucker that no-one gives a chance too but could run a big race.

I arrived at The Mediterranean as well and will be interested to see if the 2nd and 3rd he beat at Leopardstown turn up to race on Sunday at the Curragh where they're due to run. I might go small stakes anyway on The Med if he's that big on the exchanges.

From race planning point of view, he could be an each way shout for queen's vase at royal Ascot given where winners of his leopardstown race can end up.
 
That Horse said:
Funnily enough, I went through the AOB squad from that list last night as well and was wondering which horse could potentially be the sneaky fucker that no-one gives a chance too but could run a big race.

I arrived at The Mediterranean as well and will be interested to see if the 2nd and 3rd he beat at Leopardstown turn up to race on Sunday at the Curragh where they're due to run. I might go small stakes anyway on The Med if he's that big on the exchanges.

From race planning point of view, he could be an each way shout for queen's vase at royal Ascot given where winners of his leopardstown race can end up.
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Yes, like the Saval Beg last weekend, The Mediterranean's Maiden win over 1M4F gets the timings spot on for Royal Ascot, if they want to miss the Derby.

The Queen's Vase and the St Leger are the two AOB may look at, outside of Epsom/Irish Derby.

I've got him added in the St Leger by Betfair. He is 50/1.

Like you, I am waiting for the ones he beat to run at the weekend.
 
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Cazoo Derby - six-day acceptors Adayar (IRE) 3 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby

Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) 3 9 0 Mrs J Magnier/M Tabor/D Smith/Westerberg Aidan O'Brien IRE

Gear Up (IRE) 3 9 0 Teme Valley Mark Johnston

High Definition (IRE) 3 9 0 D Smith/Mrs J Magnier/M Tabor/Westerberg Aidan O'Brien IRE

Hurricane Lane (IRE) 3 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby

John Leeper (IRE) 3 9 0 Anamoine Ltd Ed Dunlop

Kyprios (IRE) 3 9 0 Moyglare Stud Farm/Mrs Magnier/ M Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE

Lone Eagle (IRE) 3 9 0 Ballylinch Stud & Aquis Farm Martyn Meade

Mac Swiney (IRE) 3 9 0 Mrs J. S. Bolger Jim Bolger IRE

Mohaafeth (IRE) 3 9 0 Shadwell Estate Company Ltd William Haggas

Mojo Star (IRE) 3 9 0 Amo Racing Limited Richard Hannon

One Ruler (IRE) 3 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby

Seattle Sound (IRE) 3 9 0 Mr Luke Comer Luke Comer IRE

Sir Lamorak (IRE) 3 9 0 Mr D. Smith, Mrs J. Magnier, Mr M. Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE

Southern Lights (IRE) 3 9 0 Aquis Racing & al Mamoura Partnership Joseph O'Brien IRE

The Mediterranean (IRE) 3 9 0 Mr D. Smith, Mrs J. Magnier, Mr M. Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE

Third Realm (GB) 3 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Roger Varian

Van Gogh (USA) 3 9 0 M Tabor/D Smith/Mrs Magnier/Mrs Nagle Aidan O'Brien IRE

Youth Spirit (IRE) 3 9 0 Ahmad Al Shaikh Andrew Balding
 
Hopefully the field can thin down to 14 or 15.

Im never keen on hearing of hard luck stories from big field races over that course and trip.
 
Just got to hope your horse doesnt get the coffin box that is stall 1
 
Am I a lone idiot in thinking Adayar has a chance at a stupid price ?
Just flicking through his form he looks all stamina and the better ground (assuming it does stay quick) may well bring improvement, 66/1 for those with 365 accs looks massive although waiting for the extra places is probably the sensible play...
 
I think its set up for a shock result ista

Don't think anything sets a high standard

like youth spirit, lone eagle and gear up at big prices

What has bolshoi ballet really done? Not a lot imo, certainly not enough to be 6/4 for the Derby

The horses hes beaten in Ireland are useless
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Didnt work for your namesake haha
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That story had a very happy ending.

After watching his debut, slicing through from the rear to win going away, I was convinced he was a 2000 Guineas horse.

For some reason the pundits were all over him for the Derby.

I backed him a lot for the 2000 Guineas and left the Derby alone. :applause::loyal::very_drunk:

Hence why my business was then named Saxon Warrior, in his honour, and my name on here.

It definitely wouldn’t have been, if I had gone along with the crowd and backed him big for the Derby, and not the 2000. :blue:
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I think its set up for a shock result ista

Don't think anything sets a high standard

like youth spirit, lone eagle and gear up at big prices

What has bolshoi ballet really done? Not a lot imo, certainly not enough to be 6/4 for the Derby

The horses hes beaten in Ireland are useless
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Yep, and there’s been a trend developing where AOBs hotpots get chinned by a lesser fancy in the yard, or is it just that Ryan Moore keeps getting it wrong ?
Given the unique nature of Epsom I couldn’t ever get stuck into a 6/4 shot, maybe backing 66/1 shots is moving too far the other way but I’m happy throwing a hopeful dart.
I’ve read a few judges talking up all three you mention so I’ll probably get one or more of them onside.
I just hope the armageddon storms that are forecast this week miss Epsom, a deep ground Derby would be brutal and more of a guess up...
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I think its set up for a shock result ista

Don't think anything sets a high standard

like youth spirit, lone eagle and gear up at big prices

What has bolshoi ballet really done? Not a lot imo, certainly not enough to be 6/4 for the Derby

The horses hes beaten in Ireland are useless
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Some of them run in a Listed race on Thursday
 
Is Sir Lamorak an expected runner? Of all the outsiders, he's the one I really like.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Is Sir Lamorak an expected runner? Of all the outsiders, he's the one I really like.
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He didn't the up his entry in Thursdays 1M4F Listed Race........

But The Mediterranean did, which makes it look like the latter won't run at Epsom.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Is Sir Lamorak an expected runner? Of all the outsiders, he's the one I really like.
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I’m no flat judge but he was the first (only maybe) AOB horse I struck a line through.
Scrambling home in a bunch finish all weather maiden and beating an 85 rated horse in a cheap handicap doesn’t scream classic winner to me but if it nets you another 200k acca I’m more than happy to be proved wrong....
 
Istabraq said:
I’m no flat judge but he was the first (only maybe) AOB horse I struck a line through.
Scrambling home in a bunch finish all weather maiden and beating an 85 rated horse in a cheap handicap doesn’t scream classic winner to me but if it nets you another 200k acca I’m more than happy to be proved wrong....
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Its struck me as odd that he hasn't ran again in the last 2 months

Maybe he needs a lot of time between races.
 
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