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Epsom Derby 2021

Id be worried hed be aimed at the St James Palace stakes or something in France
 
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I'm looking at the betting for the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday. Does anyone have a view as to why Adayar is 2nd fav ahead of Hurricane Lane?

Is it solely to do with their ORs and RPRs? I don't pay as much attention to those at such an early stage of a horses career as there's always something lurking with a lower rating ready to step up.

I'm looking at the pedigree of both and that points to HL staying further and I'm liking the 6/1 on offer to win the trial, waiting to hear back from skybet if they'll do odds for him to win trial and place in the Derby.
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Looks like the long-time Derby favourite is facing a race against time to get a prep-run or maybe even run in the Derby.

The bookies have pushed High Definition out to as big as 7/1 (with Paddy Power/Betfair).

Bolshoi Ballet has been cut in price to the new favourite, along with Mohaafeth, at 6/1 .
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Looks like the long-time Derby favourite is facing a race against time to get a prep-run or maybe even run in the Derby.

The bookies have pushed High Definition out to as big as 7/1 (with Paddy Power/Betfair).

Bolshoi Ballet has been cut in price to the new favourite, along with Mohaafeth, at 6/1 .
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Go on the Mohaafeth!

Have taken exchange prices for hurricane lane, Wordsworth and derab but Mohaafeth is the biggest I've got at 162/1. Need to turn this hype into reality!
 
....Hills have win Lingfield trial & Derby;

Adayar 18-1
Kyprios 33-1
Carlisle Bay 80-1
Third Reach 150-1
Scope 150-1
Recovery Run 200-1
 
Saxon Warrior said:
The Varian colt did it pretty easily
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Just wonder why Atzeni wasn't at Lingfield if they thought they had a live one.

I was interested in Hurricane Lane then he wasn't declared but he still has an entry for the Dante I think
 
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That Horse said:
Just wonder why Atzeni wasn't at Lingfield if they thought they had a live one.

I was interested in Hurricane Lane then he wasn't declared but he still has an entry for the Dante I think
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The trainer was at Lingfield wasn't he?

Probably Atzeni had a better book of rides at Ascot, at least four rides.

Varian had a great result 2nd in the Oaks Trial with an outsider and winning the Derby trial with an outsider.

He also has an Oaks filly for York this week, Teona, who's been backed from 7/2 to Evens for the Musidora, and 10s into 6s for the Oaks in the last 24 hours.

Atzeni would probably be riding Teona, at York and Epsom, rather than todays trial 2nd, looking at the market strength for her.

So he only gave up a longshot in the Derby trial, for a reasonable book of rides at Ascot.

Looks like the win surprised a lot of people, but the trainer didn't seem surprised that the horse won.

York will possibly give us the head of both markets this week if the if the Musidora and Dante produce authoritative winners.

Thats usually the way, unless a Guineas winner sticks at the head of the market, which isn't going to happen this year.

The Dante is a Grade 2 worth GBP 90K+ to the winner.
Its the best trial by a mile.
 
Bolshoi ballet winning and looking like an Aidan O'Brien Derby favourite, left taipan and Lough derg well behind having beaten them by less in April.

Be interested to see if Jim bolger's flying visit turns up at the Dante to see how good the Bolshoi ballet form is. FV finished 2nd to BB last month.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
The Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown this afternoon, is often the earliest trial of Derby prospects for AOB and the other main Irish trainers.

There are often one or two horses that can come out of this race and impact/win the Epsom Derby, and the Irish Derby too.

Those that run well here can often go onto the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial prior to a run at Epsom.

Today it was interesting to see that Aidan had cut his entries down to just two declarations, with the early favourite and stable jockey siding with, BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden
(not ideal for just an 8 day break before a trip to France, but such was the compacted 2yo season last year).

His action on his course maiden win over 8F on better ground last October suggested that the ground would suit today.

In a slow run race, he did well to control the pace up front and lengthen into a winning lead a furlong out.

He looked the part there, breeding is Galileo out of an unraced half-sister to a French Oaks second, and his brother, Southern France stayed 12F “standing on his head”, and he was 2nd in the Queens Vase, and 3rd in the St Leger.

Pre-race as high as 33/1 for the Derby, and Post-race 14/1, cut then to 10/1 in general, & as low as 8/1.
(Some bookies had to cut the horse twice, in quick succession, which could be a good sign that enough people were impressed with him to move the odds twice)


Aidan O’Brien said, after the win: “You’d be delighted with him as he only ran on soft ground (last season) and will have learned a lot today. He’ll probably come back here for the Derrinstown if all goes well with him. He’s straightforward and, while you’re never sure, he should get a mile and a half. He goes to the line well.

“High Definition will go for one of the Derby trials. We didn’t want to give him two runs before the Derby, but we thought this horse would be able for two. He’s in full work and we’re very happy with him.”
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The first post to set up this thread is looking better after today’s race......WOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHH
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
The first post to set up this thread is looking better after today’s race......WOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHH
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Definitely looked good enough to finish 2nd behind whatever this year's O'Brien no hoper is!

Wings of eagles and serpentine say hi.....

In all seriousness, BB looked the dog's bollox and just heard O'Brien wax lyrical about him before the 4:15 at leopardstown on racing TV
 
That Horse said:
Definitely looked good enough to finish 2nd behind whatever this year's O'Brien no hoper is!

Wings of eagles and serpentine say hi.....

In all seriousness, BB looked the dog's bollox and just heard O'Brien wax lyrical about him before the 4:15 at leopardstown on racing TV
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That’s good.

I backed Serpentine last year, on the Exchanges at around 40/1 after the 48 hour decs (or just before).

Even though I already had English King and one of AOB’s others already (NR - Santiago, I think) I wasn’t comfortable with any of them being “all that”, and went through the form, breeding and videos for the runners, and fell onto Serpentine.

Just after I had completed my decision on him and backed him, my cousin sent me a message asking what I was backing in the Derby.
I said SERPENTINE and told him my reasoning.

He didn’t sound 100% convinced, as AOB had several shorter priced ones, but 10 seconds after he passed the post on Derby Day he was on the phone thanking me profusely for being so wise, and saying how much he had won. :cat:

He doesn’t have much money, and likes a flutter, so I was truly happy that he had called me to ask for my thoughts pre-race, then backed him at 25/1, and doubled him with an earlier winner, that he picked himself.

Its stuff like that that makes all the time and effort seeking angles for winners, well and truly worthwhile.

Whether Bolshoi is the boy next month who knows, but I’m hoping he gets there in the form he was today, and with a good stall draw.

Otherwise another Serpentine is on the cards, as you said. :eagerness:
 
Backed Bolshoi Ballet at 10's and Van Gogh at 12's in Run Wild Fred and Galvin Grand National rollovers - at least I have reason to feel good about one of those after today!:onthego:
 
Sprinter Sacre said:
Backed Bolshoi Ballet at 10's and Van Gogh at 12's in Run Wild Fred and Galvin Grand National rollovers - at least I have reason to feel good about one of those after today!:onthego:
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I’ve got him at 28/1 with RWF Grand National 50/1

But, strangely overlooked using him with Galvin. :dejection:

Can back him from the Arc instead and put him with Galvin, I suppose.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
I’ve got him at 28/1 with RWF Grand National 50/1

But, strangely overlooked using him with Galvin. :dejection:

Can back him from the Arc instead and put him with Galvin, I suppose.
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I've seen you snagged 28/1 on Bolshoi; very jealous. That bet with RWF could be mega!

I suppose you have Galvin in other rollovers too, though? Could work out fine if BB doesn't deliver.
 
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It seems the terrible ante post prices with huge cuts to unrealistic prices has very much carried on from the jumps to the flat

As good as BB was his main rival was a huge drifter and ran poorly all hes beaten is an unfancied stablemate, albeit impressively

Well done anyone sitting on nice prices

But Jesus 7/4 is an awful price, not as bad as the price Santa Barbara was but still can't have him that short at all.

Hes priced up like he's just hacked up in the guineas
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
It seems the terrible ante post prices with huge cuts to unrealistic prices has very much carried on from the jumps to the flat

As good as BB was his main rival was a huge drifter and ran poorly all hes beaten is an unfancied stablemate, albeit impressively

Well done anyone sitting on nice prices

But Jesus 7/4 is an awful price, not as bad as the price Santa Barbara was but still can't have him that short at all.

Hes priced up like he's just hacked up in the guineas
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Its the old school race planning that AOB likes that sticks in my mind.

BB was his key horse for the Ballysax/Derrinstown
High Definition was his horse for the Dante.

Those seemed to have been his two 1st choices.

The rest fill the void behind.
But often one of his longshots fills the void pretty well, as they're all usually choicely bred for 12F.
 
.....Dante/Derby doubles;

High Definition 8-1 Hills & Sky
Hurricane Lane 50-1 Hills; 33-1 Sky
Gear Up 50-1 Sky; 33-1 Sky
Royal Champion 66-1 Hills
Uncle Bryn 125-1 Hills

Noon Star Musidora/Oaks & High Definition Dante/Derby 110-1 Sky
 
Saxon Warrior BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden.

With Makaloun winning yesterday at Chantilly, the form of that race last October is stacking up nicely. Two of the four colts have won on reappearance with the other two still to race and one of the fillies is also doing well. Gear Up won the race that day and could still prove to be good value for the Derby @ 28/1 and the Arc @ 66/1 before his Dante run.
 
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