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DUBLIN - Snakes & Ladders

I wouldnt say short sighted its just that why was brewinupastorm getting mugged off who has good form at 2miles and now the big stayer bapaume is rated as a 2mile speedy type just baffles me thats all so it must be because its trained by mullins
 
quevega said:
All fair comment Splinterboy.
I've dismissed it with reasons why.
And if I'm wrong I'll laugh it off (wrong more than right in this game, even if you make money)

But aside from him being trained by Mullins and having a high hurdles rating, and being similar to one or two other horses.
He achieved his highest hurdle rating on his 18th attempt, and spent 16 runs rated at or below 151.

What is it in the horse and it's form/runs that makes you think it'll compete at grade one level over 2 miles ?
What;s he been hiding from us ?
It's definitely not speed IMO and his jumping is not even 1 length a fence better than Notebook.

To add,
Notebook has achieved a rating of 158 after 9 runs under rules.
It looks to me like he just wanted fences to show us what he's got.
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For me his jumping on both starts this season was impressive. If he continue to lep like that (which I feel he will the faster they go on even better ground) then I don’t see the likes of Notebook or Fakir leaving him behind in that department.

I don’t think he’s been given the opportunity to really show his hand over a strong run 2m to date. Whilst it might have been weak, he did win a G1 2m hurdle in the same juvenile year as Defi & travels through his races like a horse that can go a hard 2m throughout - to my eye he doesn’t truly stay beyond 2m5 & the 3m hurdles he’s run in have seen him travel into the race & weaken in the last few furlongs.

Whilst I agree Notebook looks to have been waiting for a fence to show what he can do, you could argue exactly the same of Bapaume on what is known so far. His novice chase win is littered with winners & he’s yet to have the opportunity to show what he can do. Mullins are mostly improving from run to run this season & he’s peaking them for Mar-May.

Finally, this was my rationale when he was 20-25/1 - I think 10/1 is too short now but would happily back again at 7/2 after the race on Sat if he supports most of my views in his run. I feel Notebook is too short for the Arkle now with the unknowns around the others.

Good old game of opinions Q
 
Ray said:
I wouldnt say short sighted its just that why was brewinupastorm getting mugged off who has good form at 2miles and now the big stayer bapaume is rated as a 2mile speedy type just baffles me thats all so it must be because its trained by mullins
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Bapaume has run very well at Cheltenham over 2m behind DDS and over 3m vs Paisley Park. Having good Cheltenham experience is a valuable plus, as is staying 2m5f in an Arkle. He's just won over fences and there's no reason at 7 he's not going to improve for fences. You said Bapaume has done nothing to show he is better than Notebook, and that's fair, but one is 7/2 and the other is 12/1, so this becomes about value. I am sure there is an element of just Mullins money, but I would say Bapaume backers (and certainly the people on here), have a multitude of reasons for backing him, one of them being not connections but not just connections.
 
Splinterboy82 said:
For me his jumping on both starts this season was impressive. If he continue to lep like that (which I feel he will the faster they go on even better ground) then I don’t see the likes of Notebook or Fakir leaving him behind in that department.

I don’t think he’s been given the opportunity to really show his hand over a strong run 2m to date. Whilst it might have been weak, he did win a G1 2m hurdle in the same juvenile year as Defi & travels through his races like a horse that can go a hard 2m throughout - to my eye he doesn’t truly stay beyond 2m5 & the 3m hurdles he’s run in have seen him travel into the race & weaken in the last few furlongs.

Whilst I agree Notebook looks to have been waiting for a fence to show what he can do, you could argue exactly the same of Bapaume on what is known so far. His novice chase win is littered with winners & he’s yet to have the opportunity to show what he can do. Mullins are mostly improving from run to run this season & he’s peaking them for Mar-May.

Finally, this was my rationale when he was 20-25/1 - I think 10/1 is too short now but would happily back again at 7/2 after the race on Sat if he supports most of my views in his run. I feel Notebook is too short for the Arkle now with the unknowns around the others.

Good old game of opinions Q
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That's fair enough again.
Can see that rationale.
Obviously personally I think he's exposed.
Yep, prices are everything.
And both are too short now.
 
Ray said:
I wouldnt say short sighted its just that why was brewinupastorm getting mugged off who has good form at 2miles and now the big stayer bapaume is rated as a 2mile speedy type just baffles me thats all so it must be because its trained by mullins
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They tried to make him into one but there’s nothing in Bapaume’s form to say he’s a stayer Ray. As Splinterboy says a strongly run 2 miles could be just what he needs over fences and I’d have the same view regardless of who trains him. That said Mullins does have previous in turning a ‘stayer’ over hurdles into an Arkle winner. For what it’s worth I’m on Brewin as well.
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
I’m really not sure why Melon isn’t going for the Irish Arkle personally
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If he doesn't and they run in the Flogas.
I'd say he gets beat and he ends up running in the real arkle anyway.
That'd be my prediction.
 
quevega said:
If he doesn't and they run in the Flogas.
I'd say he gets beat and he ends up running in the real arkle anyway.
That'd be my prediction.
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Part of the reason I won’t cash out my 20/1 Melon Arkle ticket...until it’s very apparent he’s going Marsh. All the noises indicate he’ll do the latter, but surely a CH 2nd should be running in the Arkle assuming he can jump?
 
Great discussion on Bapaume folks. Looks to be a horse that splits opinion like few others this season.
 
Bapaume a Marmite kinds horse , you either love him or hate it. I cant see it personally , think Notebook a class act and hopefully he confirms it here.

This gamble on Easywork suggests Abra not going and possibly inside information, the yard all getting there ferry crossing money in early:highly_amused:. He has looked very good this season this Easywork and may be Elliots number one after all.
 
PP has suspended betting on the Dublin chase - 2ml open - where Mullins has 3 of top 4 in the betting. Also in the Irish Arkle all the Mullins money is for Bapaume and none for Cash Back (nibbles for Melon)
 
Mullins declared all of his big guns for Dublin chase, wow - really thought he’d scratch Min....some race that!
 
Pendil said:
PP has suspended betting on the Dublin chase - 2ml open - where Mullins has 3 of top 4 in the betting. Also in the Irish Arkle all the Mullins money is for Bapaume and none for Cash Back (nibbles for Melon)
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The Winner of this must surely go Queen mum favourite.
 
Chacun Pour Soi - Townend
Min - Robbie Power
Cilaos Emery - Danny Mullins
Duc Des Genievres - Mark Walsh
 
Melon gone from 8s into 9/2 and Bapaume out from 7/2 to 6s on the back of those jockey bookings with PP yet stays generally 7s with most other firms
 
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It’s nice to see Willie letting his big guns take each other on now Ruby’s retired. Couldn’t see anyway they’d let Chacun take on Min but fair play, this is a proper race
 
Dream DRF for me has CASH BACK hose up CHACUN stamp authority and KLASSICAL DREAM rise from the ashes we can all dream :highly_amused:
 
quevega said:
Big weekend coming up.

And some antepost bets are going to be looking very handsome (David Beckham like) on Sunday evening.

And some antepost bets are going to luck very ugly (Iain Dowie like) on Sunday evening.

Might be worth waiting for Final declarations but I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts on who's gonna be a Beckham and who's gonna be a Dowie after the weekend

Who's going to enhance there Cheltenham prospects and who's going to reduce there chances ?

I'll wait till Final declarations and put my thoughts down.
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Chacun Por Soi - Beckham

This is a less confident selection as it's based around how the race will be run. And I'm not sure it will pan out like I think.
However, I'm fairly confident after the last day that Willie will want a proper race and test of these horses. In which case I expect Min to lead from the front, or Chacun ?

I think it may be more likely Min with Chacun close up behind, but this could easily be thrown out of kilter by the odd jump or two.
I'd expect Cilaos Emery to be held up.

Obviously Ornua is the most likely false front runner though and they may take a lead from him for a while before he gives way about four out. I'm sure Henry will want this too.

I think after the last experience Chacun will have been worked on a bit more and this time should have a stronger finish and win nicely enough. Just cannot be sure though as A Plus Tard and Cilaos Emery to a lesser extent could easily go close.

But this horse looks like it has a lot of ability and just might prove it Saturday.

If they go no gallop for some reason then I really couldn't say who'll win (except it won't be Min)
 
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