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December ‘22 Yankee

I've now officially got shit for brains as well as being a blurt:glee:
 
archie said:
I think that he's the most likely winner on the 28th.

Over 3m2f at Cheltenham he doesn't get within cooee of those at the head of the betting.
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Name "those".

I'll give you GDC
You fill in the rest, and we'll come back to it a later date if relevant.
 
4 wins from 13 chases. 1 Grade 1 win from 8 attempts. He just doesn't have the class to win a Gold Cup......imo of course.
 
Lobos said:
4 wins from 13 chases. 1 Grade 1 win from 8 attempts. He just doesn't have the class to win a Gold Cup......imo of course.
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He was being campaigned as a handicapper like your mate Galvin was for a while - Gordon has a habit of doing this.
His last 4 runs, especially if you allow him his first run this year are probably - form a form point of view - as good as any in the Gold cup reckoning right now, except the champ.
 
Quevega said:
He was being campaigned as a handicapper like your mate Galvin was for a while - Gordon has a habit of doing this.
His last 4 runs, especially if you allow him his first run this year are probably - form a form point of view - as good as any in the Gold cup reckoning right now, except the champ.
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I don't see the point now in backing anything against the likes of Facile Vega, Constitution Hill and Galopin Des Champ. If you are not on board already just sit back and enjoy them winning and use your points wisely elsewhere.
 
Lobos said:
I don't see the point now in backing anything against the likes of Facile Vega, Constitution Hill and Galopin Des Champ. If you are not on board already just sit back and enjoy them winning and use your points wisely elsewhere.
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The point is.
The shorties don't always make the festival.
The shorties don't always win when Favourite before xmas.
The shorties don't always win on the day itself.

If they always did, we wouldn't be talking bollocks on here.
We'd be in a hot tub with girls aloud.

And 50-1 ew is a better bet than backing GDC win.
From an odds perspective for sure, the opinions will differ, and that's fine.
 
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There's previous years shorties and then there's those 3. They are exceptional. Why waste bullets in the hope they'll not get there or underperform on the day. I've done that too many times over the years which is why I'm not in a hot tub with Girls Aloud . Each to their own of course.
 
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Lobos said:
There's previous years shorties and then there's those 3. They are exceptional. Why waste bullets in the hope they'll not get there or underperform on the day. I've done that too many times over the years which is why I'm not in a hot tub with Girls Aloud . Each to their own of course.
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I think you (personally) mean any more bullets ?

https://www.gaultstats.com/blog/fate-of-the-favourites-a-clerk-s-view?categoryId=83345

Our friend's stats show odds on Fav's on the day get beat roughly 47% of the time. 2008-2021
Nevermind from this far out.
It's a total guess but if there was only 1 odds on/even money shot at this stage every season that didn't line up then that would bring the percentage to around 59% losers. There's probably been more.
And the three we're taking about aren't even all odds on. So there are even more short priced favourites beaten on the day and don't make the festival, so the probability odds keep decreasing.

But as you've blurted - these three are special/bulletproof (we'll see)

It's like this is your first festival, and you don't remember all the certainties that get beat every year. :mask:


That covers off that aspect.

The getting cover on other horses at bigger prices to allow a good bet nearer the day (if they make it) aspect is another matter altogether.
And if they don't make it then you're likely on a good contender at decent prices.

I think you know this as you console yourself about horse's ruled out for the same reasons.
 
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All good points Q but I still won't personally be having 'another' penny on anything other than those three in their respective races. You are definitely right about one thing in particular........

Every Festival is like my first Festival.
 
Lobos said:
There's previous years shorties and then there's those 3. They are exceptional. Why waste bullets in the hope they'll not get there or underperform on the day. I've done that too many times over the years which is why I'm not in a hot tub with Girls Aloud . Each to their own of course.
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Last year... Galopin Des Champs (and maybe wrong race), Shishkin, Tiger Roll... Definitely would have said the same about Envoi Allen 2 seasons ago too. Plenty of water to go under the bridge yet!
 
Lobos said:
All good points Q but I still won't personally be having 'another' penny on anything other than those three in their respective races. You are definitely right about one thing in particular........

Every Festival is like my first Festival.
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Kind of knew that when I typed it. :encouragement:
You're an OO
Oblivious Optimist.
 
Dandrew99 said:
Last year... Galopin Des Champs (and maybe wrong race), Shishkin, Tiger Roll... Definitely would have said the same about Envoi Allen 2 seasons ago too. Plenty of water to go under the bridge yet!
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I think the Tiger Roll 8/11 - Paisley Park 4/6 - Defi du seuil 2/5 = 3-1 treble in 2020 was a highlight for many :cold:
And I'm pretty sure someone blurted they couldn't lose. :rolleyes:
 
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Quevega said:
I think the Tiger Roll 8/11 - Paisley Park 4/6 - Defi du seuil 2/5 = 3-1 treble in 2020 was a highlight for many :cold:
And I'm pretty sure someone blurted they couldn't lose. :rolleyes:
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:boxing::boxing::boxing:

Like that.

Every horse can lose, it’s jumps racing, there’s plenty not even getting to the Festival.

I appreciate the optimistic among us, but favour realism, it’s more earthy, and grounded.

That doesn’t mean I don’t savour the victory moments every bit as much as the more optimistic folk…….:angel:
 
I love Quevega's spirited case for Conflated at 50-1 in the Gold Cup.

It's a lovely price for a horse who has certainly been a big improver over the last 12 months.

He ran a cracking race in the Ryanair (his only run at Cheltenham) and still seemed to be travelling well when he came down two out.

But imo that was a tired fall and there's a big doubt about whether he'll stay 3m 2f well enough to get up the hill and win a Gold Cup. Decent place options though at that price.

Will he even line up in the GC or have another crack at the Ryanair?

The jury's out on that score too.

So some serious doubts are built into Conflated's price which will undoubtedly contract markedly if he wins over Christmas.

But sometimes the bleeding obvious is staring you right in the face.

Right now there's a 40-1 shot whose entire season will revolve around the Gold Cup.

And he has a Cheltenham/Festival record which reads 1212.

MINELLA INDO: winner of the Bartlett, an unlucky second in the RSA, winner of the Gold Cup and runner up in the Gold Cup.

The one downside is his age but he's not been over-raced during his career and 10makes it just about possible.

This time they've said they are deliberately going for a late start with him and barring injury he'll turn up.

What are we waiting for?

You'd need to have mashed potato for brains not to put him in.:biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:

Happy Christmas all.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
I love Quevega's spirited case for Conflated at 50-1 in the Gold Cup.

It's a lovely price for a horse who has certainly been a big improver over the last 12 months.

He ran a cracking race in the Ryanair (his only run at Cheltenham) and still seemed to be travelling well when he came down two out.

But imo that was a tired fall and there's a big doubt about whether he'll stay 3m 2f well enough to get up the hill and win a Gold Cup. Decent place options though at that price.

Will he even line up in the GC or have another crack at the Ryanair?

The jury's out on that score too.

So some serious doubts are built into Conflated's price which will undoubtedly contract markedly if he wins over Christmas.

But sometimes the bleeding obvious is staring you right in the face.

Right now there's a 40-1 shot whose entire season will revolve around the Gold Cup.

And he has a Cheltenham/Festival record which reads 1212.

MINELLA INDO: winner of the Bartlett, an unlucky second in the RSA, winner of the Gold Cup and runner up in the Gold Cup.

This time they've said they are deliberately going for a late start with him and barring injury he'll turn up.

What are we waiting for?

You'd need to have mashed potato for brains not to put him in.:biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:

Happy Christmas all.
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65 on BEx if you want the win only option.
 
You could say something similar about Galvin. I think they found excuses after his last run but am not definite. He ran to 169 on seasonal debut. The Gold Cup last season was run the complete opposite to how he would've liked it and he stayed on well into 4th. There could be more pace this year.

In my view, GdC wins if he stays healthy but if anything should happen this race opens right up so big prices for Conflated and Galvin interest me as cover.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
I love Quevega's spirited case for Conflated at 50-1 in the Gold Cup.

It's a lovely price for a horse who has certainly been a big improver over the last 12 months.

He ran a cracking race in the Ryanair (his only run at Cheltenham) and still seemed to be travelling well when he came down two out.

But imo that was a tired fall and there's a big doubt about whether he'll stay 3m 2f well enough to get up the hill and win a Gold Cup. Decent place options though at that price.
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Have to say I don’t see his fall that way at all.
One of the benefits of Cheltenham membership is that the stand sits 1f from the line so you can judge a horses speed from the bottom bend and Conflated for me was traveling quicker than any horse when coming down, I genuinely thought he could get near Alaho.
That said, I’ve spoken to a few judges and they generally don’t think he stays 26.5f but it’s worth recalling the thoughts/confidence of Elliott prior to the festival.
And I’m a stubborn old git so was backing him anyway, one thing for sure there will be far worse 50/1 shots in the festival markets…
 
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