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Cross Country Chase 2018

Faugheen_Machine said:
Kev, I agree he's still worthy of a bet at 7/1 but can't see the logic in him each way at that price, with 5 months to go. The risk of him not showing up outweighs the reward, at the price. Just my opinion.:devilish:
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That would usually be my opinion on anything south out 12/1, however - I genuinly think the 'place' part will be as big as the win part of the day - and the logic is, that the target is now a guarentee and that he has made it to Cheltenham for 5 festivals in a row. He isn't a horse thats ever struggled with fitness, and they don't NEED to do anything tough with him all season... he'll be falling out of the back of the TV in all the prep races, having a canter around and I think compared to most horses he is as likely as you can get to making it...

If I hadn't already got on the win at bigger odds, I might not want to, and I don't need to... but he can't be bigger than 6/4 on the day? Which on the day will give me better than a bet to nothing?

I haven't placed it yet, as the price won't change before you can all get my down from the cliff edge
 
Kevloaf said:
That would usually be my opinion on anything south out 12/1, however - I genuinly think the 'place' part will be as big as the win part of the day - and the logic is, that the target is now a guarentee and that he has made it to Cheltenham for 5 festivals in a row. He isn't a horse thats ever struggled with fitness, and they don't NEED to do anything tough with him all season... he'll be falling out of the back of the TV in all the prep races, having a canter around and I think compared to most horses he is as likely as you can get to making it...

If I hadn't already got on the win at bigger odds, I might not want to, and I don't need to... but he can't be bigger than 6/4 on the day? Which on the day will give me better than a bet to nothing?

I haven't placed it yet, as the price won't change before you can all get my down from the cliff edge
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I'm going to play this slightly different. I'm going to keep backing him until he gets to around 4/1. As you say, his likely SP will be less than 2/1 and at that point I'll start laying off my stake.

You won't get a more solid betting proposition than CoC at Cheltenham in March so don't let me talk you out of it! :highly_amused:
 
I actually didn't consider that I have CoC covered each way in some pretty nice looking multiples.

Our Duke, Buveur D'air,
Apple's Jade and Fayonagh
Samcro

so I don't need to do this :grumpy:
 
I can see the reasoning behind going for the each way part but personally, with so much going for the horse i'd just go all out for the win only at 7/1. I'd much rather bet 10 points on the win then 5/5pts. If you did want the safety net or guarantee of profit I would just keep backing him win only and then lay off to ensure your moneyback /profit on the day if that's anyones thing.

I genuinely thing 9/1 was probably the best value antepost price I have ever seen since i've been doing it, and 7/1 is still fantastic value.

Josies Orders went off 15/8F in 2016. CoC went off 4/1 second favourite last year and that was despite being thumped 43 lengths in the rescheduled January trial AND the fav Cantlow really doing nothing wrong by romping to victory in the first trial and finishing second giving weight (albeit not a major thing in this race but on face value) to the winner in that second trial. If his price shortened that much last season, it's only going to be a lot shorter after winning it. I see Garde Champetre went off 4/6F the year after he won the race for the first time and I expect the same. Maybe it isn't enough to move the price but I also think after finishing second in the previous years Grand National, he'll be a popluar bet for the casual punter on the day.

I know connections have made no comment but do we expect Cause of Causes to line up at the Open meeting?
 
Should have taken a bit of the 10/1 :p

I actually agree with you FM/jono - it is probably better to just go win only and lay off the stake. I was just excited about the place being higher than the likely SP but I don't think that is as good as a 'bet to nothing' when I think the win is so much more likely anyway.

He has to go off short, the JP horses get backed anyway a lot of the time.... recognizable name, last years winner. He's going off 4/6 :triumphant:
 
jono said:
I forgot I did have some of the 10/1 - 1.5pts placed on the 20th March :p:triumphant:
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Alright no-one likes an after-timer :p
 
Potentially my biggest regret for the AP this year is I decided to double CoC with a season long football bet.

That 2u e/w could have been a 4U win stake a team 9/1

Fingers crossed mousa dembele starts scoring
 
Hurricane fly said:
Potentially my biggest regret for the AP this year is I decided to double CoC with a season long football bet.

That 2u e/w could have been a 4U win stake a team 9/1

Fingers crossed mousa dembele starts scoring
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Absolutely fingers crossed! Will have my eye on that for you.

I like a cross sport multiple :encouragement: Had plenty of luck (more luck than skill anyway) doing them over the years!



7/1 CoC for this when Fayonagh is less than half the price.... STILL the bet of the meeting for anyone not on :triumphant:
 
Won't back him till after the trial. But argaine gregaine (CBA to look up his name) who bolted up in the trial at 50s before having a setback, will be campaigned with the festival his target this season. Looking forward to seeing him run.
 
Scooby91 said:
Won't back him till after the trial. But argaine gregaine (CBA to look up his name) who bolted up in the trial at 50s before having a setback, will be campaigned with the festival his target this season. Looking forward to seeing him run.
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I agree Scooby,

Urgent De Gregaine should not be 25-1.
 
From memory wasn't he quite lucky to win that race? Didn't something run out to hinder Cantlow? I remember being pretty confident Cantlow would turn the form around? (Although I had backed Cantlow which might account for that)

25/1 looks an alright each way bet, the kind I usually would take in a race with the make-up for sure.

I also have in my head Urgent De Gregaine got beaten recently in France, but can't remember if it was or not and can't look it up at the moment
 
Imm going from memory but im sure he absolutely bolted in, like he joined in at the end.
 
Urgent De Gregaine is set to return to Cheltenham later this year following his narrow reverse in the*Velka Pardubicka on Sunday.

Trained in France by*Emmanuel Clayeux, the nine-year-old caused a 50-1 upset when beating Enda Bolger's Cantlow in the*Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham on Trials Day in late January.

Urgent De Gregaine did not return to Prestbury Park for the Festival in March, but confirmed he is a major player in the cross-country division when running a fantastic race at Pardubice racecourse in Prague, making most of the running under Felix de Giles before being caught late by No Time To Lose.

Clayeux said: "It was a fantastic run. I was really happy because he adapted to the racecourse very well. He finished second in a point-to-point in France in August. That was his first run since January.

"We missed Cheltenham in March because the horse was not in good form, but we hope to go back in either November or December. I haven't decided which, but he will only run in one.

"We would like to go to Cheltenham again in March and I think from now on he will only run in England and the Czech Republic.

"He's a globetrotter, so I don't think we'll run him in France any more."
 
When I have time I'll watch it back on jockey club vids. But I'm sure he won very easily. He did have 10 stone and cantlow 11st4 and auvergnat was running well when fell a couple out with a similarly low weight.
 
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UDG worked badly in the lead up to the festival and that was why he missed the race.

I was keen on his chances in March and thought he absolutely hacked up on trials day.
 
I was there that day. And he did indeed hack up.

Was only over as a traveling companion to another French thing.

Was getting a lot of weight from Cantlow however.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
UDG worked badly in the lead up to the festival and that was why he missed the race.

I was keen on his chances in March and thought he absolutely hacked up on trials day.
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What am I forgetting about that race? Did Auvergnat run out and hamper Cantlow? Anyway, I didn't back UDG last year.... but this year I've just added 0.5 pts on UDG each way ....

and the Velka Pardubicka is definitely where I saw him - I thought so, Sky not adding that to his form I guess. He looked hike he had that won before the final furlong, didn't lose a lot in defeat in my opinion.
 
Yes Kev, Auvergnat ran out into the rails and very nearly took Cantlow with him
 
ryanh97 said:
Yes Kev, Auvergnat ran out into the rails and very nearly took Cantlow with him
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I think you are getting confused with the race at the festival a couple of years earlier. Auvergnaut unseated on trials day when Cantlow was a few lengths clear of him.

**Apologies - just watched the closing stages on Sportinglife and he did get hampered slightly but not too the degree that it cost Cantlow the race.
 
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