Cross Country Chase 2018

[Garrison Savannah]

Barring injuries (again) the GC next year will be a stronger renewal than this year (Thistlecrack, Our Duke, Might Bite, maybe even Fox Norton and Douvan?). Very unlikely for me that CoC runs into a place, so why not take the CC route - particularly if they want to enter him in the GN again?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Barring injuries (again) the GC next year will be a stronger renewal than this year (Thistlecrack, Our Duke, Might Bite, maybe even Fox Norton and Douvan?). Very unlikely for me that CoC runs into a place, so why not take the CC route - particularly if they want to enter him in the GN again?

I don't think the Aintree Grand National is in their thinking for CoC this season. Not sure why to be honest.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm pretty sure Jamie Codd said somewhere that the X-Country was the target race, being a horse that loves Cheltenham it would be silly for him not to attend the festival, and realistically his best chance is this race.

As said above, the GC is looking as competitive as I can remember it for a while, think the last time it looked this competitive IMO, was the Long Run, Denman, Kauto Star race back in 2011, can't see why they'd stick COC in it this year. Think connections still have Minella Rocco (finished a fine 2nd this year), Coney Island (potentially) & More Of That for the race, and unless something drastic happens to them 3 I don't see why they would switch, that said they do have a lot of horses that could run in the X-Country as well, COC, Cantlow, Josies Orders & Auvergnat!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

McManus will run loads in the cross country. I think he had 5 or 6 running in it this year.

 

[Istabraq]

At 7/1 a horse good enough to be placed in a gold cup is great value for this race, even before factoring in the C+D win though.... so suck it up and get the ista mortgage on? :highly_amused:

Purely on ability his 2nd in GN is his best form? He'd need to improve again to place in a gold cup wouldn't he?

I think there's been a shift in the last 20 years Kev, the 4m chase and Grand National have got classier and the Gold Cup has become a greater test of stamina, I think the GC and GN are now closely aligned in terms of the profile needed so Cause of Causes for me would be a 12/1 shot and a decent each way shot if he ran in the GC.
Not only did he win a 4m chase he then demolished a Kim Muir field off near top weight, now that might not be GC winning form but it proves he has the speed to win over the distance and when coupled with his known stamina he has everything for me.
I maintain he shouldn't be in the Cross Country and can only assume Elliott thinks he's way down the pecking order of his GC horses....

 

[Kevloaf]

If the Gold Cup just needed a stayer, then I would still be living off my winnings from Don Poli hacking up :heart-borken:

I think CoC is a magnificent horse, and if he did have a go at the Gold Cup I definitely wouldn't leave him unbacked, as you make very fair points. I do feel though, I'd be backing with my heart not my head (price dependant of course) and this year looks as strong as any of the last 5 renewals?

 

[paz247]

looking at JP’s potentials for GC (Coney Island & Minella Rocco) he may choose to throw another dart at the bull in CoC, can’t fault his Cheltenham record, and as stated by some of you JP has a Hugh amount of horses to go for the XC, there maybe one we don’t know about yet but Auvergnat looks full of potential and is only 8 come the Fest so could be one for the next few years, Josies if back and fit should give a good account, I think CoC deserves a shot at GC but maybe it’s a year or two to late

 

[Kevloaf]

Auvergnat bids for poignant Munster National success tomorrow:

https://www.racinguk.com/news/auvergnat-bids-for-poignant-munster-national-success

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Aubusson entered in a cross country race in France next week. An interesting addition to these races if that's where they decide to go.

 

[Unhomme]

Will Hill have started a book on this race and have Aubusson at 25/1

 

[Hurricane fly]

Completely off topic but I never realised Cause of Causes took part in Champagne Fevers Supreme win

Just rewatched it, as he is being pushed along half way round who would have thought he would have turned into such a beast!
Admittedly he is there staying on past cheltenian and the likes up the hill!

 

[Geordieboy83]

Never even realised this HF. Gonna go and watch now

 

[robith]

Never even realised this HF. Gonna go and watch now

Watched this on YouTube as it predated my real interest in the sport - imagine getting 5/1 sp on the Mullins Ricci horse in the supreme

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Watched this on YouTube as it predated my real interest in the sport - imagine getting 5/1 sp on the Mullins Ricci horse in the supreme

Champagne Fever was 20/1 the week leading up to the festival and he was the previous seasons bumper winner........... and no, I didn't back him :sorrow:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

From RP stable tour.

Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

From RP stable tour.

Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.

This is brilliant news, still covering with Josies Orders mind as I'd be gutted if he came back and won it!

 

[Kevloaf]

From RP stable tour.

Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.

Excellent. I agree Gordon :highly_amused:

 

[jono]

From RP stable tour.

Elliott says this race is best chance of CoC making it four Cheltenham festival wins and that this race looks to be the plan again.

Superb. He also says that his win in this race was one of his highlights of the season last year. What looked like an almost certain target is now guaranteed for me.

 

[Kevloaf]

IF, I didn't already have 11 pts win on CoC - I would be getting at least 5 pts e/w on CoC at 7/1. (1/4 the odds)

For me, and as an each way price, it is just a bet on whether or not he turns up! if he does, and obviously it won't be everyones bag to bet ante post (although I doubt they're active on here at this stage to disagree) then what on earth would be stopping you.

I appreciate Auvergnat may improve, and I appreciate Josies Orders might bring in a different formline.... but I don't think either are worth worrying about AND even then, you'd make some money on the way way selection, because there is NO WAY that if he completes, he will not be coming up the hill stronger than anything else.

Even comparing the price to some of the other races, Samcro is 8/1 best price, we've never seen him jump an obstacle. Finian's Oscar is a similar price, and we don't know exactly what race he'll be in. Altior is 6/4 and might have to beat DOuvan. Douvan is 10/3 and might have to beat Altior. Buveur D'air is 4/1 and might have to take on Faugheen and all the novices. Faugheen is a similar price and has to come back from 2 years off....

It is an absolute good thing. I am going in each way at 7/1.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

IF, I didn't already have 11 pts win on CoC - I would be getting at least 5 pts e/w on CoC at 7/1. (1/4 the odds)

For me, and as an each way price, it is just a bet on whether or not he turns up! if he does, and obviously it won't be everyones bag to bet ante post (although I doubt they're active on here at this stage to disagree) then what on earth would be stopping you.

I appreciate Auvergnat may improve, and I appreciate Josies Orders might bring in a different formline.... but I don't think either are worth worrying about AND even then, you'd make some money on the way way selection, because there is NO WAY that if he completes, he will not be coming up the hill stronger than anything else.

Even comparing the price to some of the other races, Samcro is 8/1 best price, we've never seen him jump an obstacle. Finian's Oscar is a similar price, and we don't know exactly what race he'll be in. Altior is 6/4 and might have to beat DOuvan. Douvan is 10/3 and might have to beat Altior. Buveur D'air is 4/1 and might have to take on Faugheen and all the novices. Faugheen is a similar price and has to come back from 2 years off....

It is an absolute good thing. I am going in each way at 7/1.

Kev, I agree he's still worthy of a bet at 7/1 but can't see the logic in him each way at that price, with 5 months to go. The risk of him not showing up outweighs the reward, at the price. Just my opinion.