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Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

SP of favourite in this race ... currently Barney Dwan at 10/1 not sure that'll be fav on the day though

2017 - 6/1 - Foxtail Hill
2016 - 3/1 - Aloomomo
2015 - 6/1 - Thomas Crapper
2014 - 13/2J - Art of Logistics / Ericht
2013 - 9/2 - Colour Squadron
2012 - 13/2 - Hunt Ball (A season of all seasons!)
2011 - 3/1 - Definity
2010 - 6/1 - Rivaliste
2009 - 15/2 - Kia Kaha
2008 - 13/2 - Mr Strachan
2007 - 7/2 - New Little Bric
2006 - 9/2 - Reveillez
2005 - 8/1 - Captain Corelli
 
If Rather Be has this as his target I think he'll take all the beating...
 
Looks like someone knows what Phil's given De Plotting Shed. Going mad on oddschecker.
When Elliott says (betfair article few days ago) this is the target and if they get it there fit and well and it gets in the race then it may run a lifetime best then that's worth following.
 
quevega said:
Looks like someone knows what Phil's given De Plotting Shed. Going mad on oddschecker.
When Elliott says (betfair article few days ago) this is the target and if they get it there fit and well and it gets in the race then it may run a lifetime best then that's worth following.
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Maybe ...but his Irish mark is 143 and that is unlikely to be different to his UK mark (they are pretty equal nowadays).This is 7-8 pounds below his best hurdle mark, a good jumper and he will be suited by better ground.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Maybe ...but his Irish mark is 143 and that is unlikely to be different to his UK mark (they are pretty equal nowadays).This is 7-8 pounds below his best hurdle mark, a good jumper and he will be suited by better ground.
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I wouldn't be sure him not compressing the national weights means he's decided the ratings in Ireland are all ok.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
I am not using the National as a reference - weights have been pretty consistent all year (with only a few anomalies)
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I've not been watching too closely to be fair, but there can't have been that many entered compared to even one race at the festival. and the Irish won a fair few of the handicaps last year
 
quevega said:
I've not been watching too closely to be fair, but there can't have been that many entered compared to even one race at the festival. and the Irish won a fair few of the handicaps last year
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The two which come to mind this season are Total Recall (Ladbroke) and Bleu et Rouge (Betfair) - respectively, on and within one pound of their Irish marks.
 
quevega said:
I wouldn't be sure him not compressing the national weights means he's decided the ratings in Ireland are all ok.
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Phil Smith did admit/confirm on Ask The Handicapper that the National is seperate to all other handicapping
 
Bayoffreedom said:
The two which come to mind this season are Total Recall (Ladbroke) and Bleu et Rouge (Betfair) - respectively, on and within one pound of their Irish marks.
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Not the biggest sample but I hope you're right and he's changed his tack. But common sense tells me he hasn't.
He raised Irish entries at the festival by a rough average of 2lbs last year and can't see that changing too much, but we'll see soon enough.
He can be particularly harsh on novice chasers due to the rules being different and the starting point in the UK being there hurdling mark.
 
All of the Irish runners in the big UK handicaps this season have been picking up extra pounds. Even when Gordon Elliott entered two in the UK Pertemps qualifier Glenloe got 2lbs.
 
quevega said:
Not the biggest sample but I hope you're right and he's changed his tack. But common sense tells me he hasn't.
He raised Irish entries at the festival by a rough average of 2lbs last year and can't see that changing too much, but we'll see soon enough.
He can be particularly harsh on novice chasers due to the rules being different and the starting point in the UK being there hurdling mark.
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It will be interesting to see. I don't know if there being a different Irish handicapper has made a difference after Noel O'Brien's long illness and untimely death. The good news for this race is that it must be unlikely that a horse rated 145 in Ireland will be forced out of the handicap and, if so, the relative differentials should be retained.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
All of the Irish runners in the big UK handicaps this season have been picking up extra pounds. Even when Gordon Elliott entered two in the UK Pertemps qualifier Glenloe got 2lbs.
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very good point Jackie. Elliot was seeing what kind of mark Glenloe would get. Shrewdie.
 
And in the same entires Diamond Cauchois got bumped from 143 in Ireland to 149 by the UK handicapper. So there is definitely no proof they are going any easier on the Irish this year.

That being said, as long as De Plotting Shed only gets 2lb (which seems to be the minimum) he will be ok.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
And in the same entires Diamond Cauchois got bumped from 143 in Ireland to 149 by the UK handicapper. So there is definitely no proof they are going any easier on the Irish this year.

That being said, as long as De Plotting Shed only gets 2lb (which seems to be the minimum) he will be ok.
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The money for it today suggests Gordon has rang Phil and asked
 
We seem to be basing every comment on Elliott's horses. Not true to say the minimum has been two pounds - take a look at WPM's and JP O'Briens runners in the UK.
Any Second Now is rated 145 in Ireland - let's see if he is rated over the limit for this race!
 
Bayoffreedom said:
We seem to be basing every comment on Elliott's horses. Not true to say the minimum has been two pounds - take a look at WPM's and JP O'Briens runners in the UK.
Any Second Now is rated 145 in Ireland - let's see if he is rated over the limit for this race!
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It's not limited to Gordon but as he's the Irish trainer who has entered the most in the UK this season, it's something to use as a benchmark. To give an alternative, Top Othe Ra of Tom Mullins was given 1lb when running in the big Ascot 2m handicap. In the same race Veinard of Gordon Elliot was given 2lbs.
 
Anything rated 145 in Ireland is unlikely to make the cut in a 145 ceiling race. But that is where NRNB comes in handy.
 
Any if I had to predict what Any Second Now will get, I'd say he'll be closer to 150 than 145. It's a shame as I really like the horse.
 
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