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Christmas Racing 2018

mayo

mayo

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cant see it myself but Donn sweet on https://donnmcclean.com/2018/11/24/politologue-2/

Politologue
Politologue was very good in winning the Grade 2 Christy 1965 Chase over 2m 5f. He always travelled well just behind the leaders, Gold Present and Hammersly Lake, he jumped well, and he moved up on the outside to join Gold Present in front as they raced up the side of the track. Sam Twiston-Davies waited in front, he didn’t want to go on too early, and they got in a bit tight to both the second last and the last fences, which gave Charbel a chance. But it never really looked like Paul Nicholls’ horse was going to get beaten and, while he only got home by a half a length in the end, he left the impression that he had a fair bit more in hand than that.

The form of the race is strong. He was giving 6lb to Charbel, who was giving Altior a race in the 2017 Arkle when he came down at the second last, and who was race fit. Kim Bailey’s horse beat Baron Alco at Chepstow in October, giving him 12lb, and Baron Alco won the BetVictor Gold Cup next time. Politologue and Charbel were clear on Saturday, and the winning time was good.

Paul Nicholls’ horse deserves to take his chance in the King George now. We don’t know if he will stay three miles, but we know that he stays two miles and five furlongs well at Ascot, and the King George is only another three furlongs further, at an easier track. John Hales’ horse record over two and a half miles or more away from Cheltenham, where he has never really been seen to best effect, reads 2112111. He wore a hood and a tongue-tie on his final run last season at Aintree, when he beat Min in the Melling Chase, and he wore the same combination on Saturday. Those two runs have probably been the two best runs of his life. He is only seven, and he could step up again in the King George.

Ascot, 24th November 2018
 
This looks a lot better after Charbels run at the weekend
 
Waiting Patiently 5/1 for the King George has to be the worst value in the market.
 
KG doesn't interest me from a betting pov but Bristol should be a few points shorter than 8/1.
 
Kevloaf said:
It is when you can get 6/1 :p

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/patiently-pleases-in-hexham-spin/156040

Am I right in thinknig you don't like this horse because he didn't run in the Ryanair?


From memory, they've always said the King George would be his race?

I wouldn't lay him at 1/6 - will you be?
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Its not the horse I have a problem with, its 2nd rate flakey trainers who don't have the balls to put the horse in THE FESTIVAL of the year.
Its always been the way with certain trainers that are looking for excuses for not running the horse. It was a so-called ground issue as the 1st excuse, when the the ground turned in the horses favour its was then the track(sigh). No doubt she was looking for something a bit easier for the horse. She had a great opportunity to see if the horse was good enough in the Ryanair and she bottled it. The season ended in disappointment. schadenfreude.
The consistent point I always make is that if the horse was Irish trained the whole town would have followed the horse over the Irish Sea for Cheltenham. They would have taken their chance, and for that I admire them.
Cheltenham is everything, no one really cares about Aintree other than the Grand National.

Regardless of my view of the trainer I don't think the horse would have been good enough to win at the festival anyway.

I will be laying WP on the exchanges for the KG. Thats my Christmas sack sorted.
 
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Interesting Info there Mayo . Certainly Keen to see P.Percy improve from his previous start. !!.
 
So what’s our thoughts on the KG - I’ll be there sporting my Christmas thistlecracker jumper !

I see TS gave him a nod for Wednesday, can’t see it happening but equally I’m not overly convinced by anyone in the market at the moment.

Mite Bite - concerns after performances so far
WP - will be some ask considering the 312 absence
Prolitologue - personally I don’t believe he is up to this standard but ascot performance was ok
Bristol - at the moment my money could be edging here, impressed with previous performance, conditions track did suit thou
Native River - I think they will just be building towards GC
TC - 6 chase runs at 10 years old, not sure he can cope with some of the run guns but looked as strong as any before the turn of the previous race
 
Pickling my head this race wasn’t overly impressed with Mite bite last year in this race know he was idling out in front but still!
Delta work / apples jade double over Christmas
 
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Bristol would be my pick but not a race I will bet in. You say conditions suited at Haydock but the consensus prior to the race was he needs deep ground. Bristol needs to get into a rhythm with his jumping and he likes an uncontested lead, he gallops them into submission when he does.

I backed him 80/1 for the 2017 Gold Cup. He was bang there before making a mistake. He lead in this race last year but made another mistake and lost ground. He doesn't recover from mistakes well. He would be a win only bet.
 
boopa said:
Bristol would be my pick but not a race I will bet in. You say conditions suited at Haydock but the consensus prior to the race was he needs deep ground. Bristol needs to get into a rhythm with his jumping and he likes an uncontested lead, he gallops them into submission when he does.

I backed him 80/1 for the 2017 Gold Cup. He was bang there before making a mistake. He lead in this race last year but made another mistake and lost ground. He doesn't recover from mistakes well. He would be a win only bet.
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I wouldn't say BDM is ground dependent, but I do say he is course dependent for these deeper races.
 
The form book is there for all to see but what is the reason for it?
 
boopa said:
The form book is there for all to see but what is the reason for it?
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No idea, though it's no coincidence now IMO. It smacks you in the face and if you choose to ignore it then so be it.

Every season they've said he's a different horse now blah blah blah, same thing happens.

Maybe he is an early season horse, in fact, he's never finished a season with the same zest as he started one, his latest (in month terms) win is February, so the King George may not be a bad shout, but the niggle of him not being at Haydock is enough for me to avoid.
 
Keep getting drawn to waiting patiently I know it’s beat fuck all but mite have the pace coming to the last few fences always ridden as if it has plenty left in the tank
 
I'm not ignoring it I'm looking for reasoning behind it. Correlation does not imply causation. The theory prior to the race was Haydock is bottomless at that time of year. That's why he drifted from antepost fav to 13/2 SP.
 
boopa said:
I'm not ignoring it I'm looking for reasoning behind it. Correlation does not imply causation. The theory prior to the race was Haydock is bottomless at that time of year. That's why he drifted from antepost fav to 13/2 SP.
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I never meant you specifically ignoring it, I meant the wider audience, including myself as it happens, so my error for using the word 'you' instead of 'us' and 'we' in that reply.

Wasn't aware of that theory or the reasoning behind the drift tbh.

I actually didn't back him, yet I had him note booked with the comments 'back @ Haydock' :very_drunk:

I did not and do not have him down as ground dependent myself which is why I found it strange you questioning that side of it, but now I understand, however my reasoning stands that it is the course and not the ground that matters with him, though as I also suggested, maybe the time of year could also be a factor.
 
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I'd say he's just inconsistent, except at haydock
 
Waiting Patiently (12/1) and Politilogue (8/1) are the two I've backed.

WP is plenty short enough given he's had no prep race but I do think he has the talent to go right to the top. Hopefully it'll be the King George / Betfair Bowl double:devilish:

Politilogue's form right handed reads 1111111. The ground and course will suit. His form from Ascot reads well after Charbel's win in the Peterborough Chase. He's my best bet in this and the one to beat imo.
 
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