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Chelters 2016 Antepost bets

After last season trying to avoid Henderson this season that means no doubt he will have a good season this season ha ha :encouragement:
 
Anyone brave enough to throw in an AP Nap for the festival without really knowing too much and staying away from the big five in faugheen, douvan, vatour, annie power and un de Sceaux, so far i like the looks of townshead for the supreme novice hurdle, encouraging flat form and undoubtedly great connections, one to watch first time out for sure!!
 
Not a nap but I really like the look of the Champion Chase as a betting race at the moment. I'm not a massive fan of UDS, not convinced Cheltenham really suits him, and I'd also be worried about the possibility of it being quicker ground on the Wednesday. At 6/4 he's not a betting proposition at the moment.

Dodging bullets is a horse I have never taken too and I still can't believe he won the race last year. The place horses were Somersby and Special Tiara, which makes that race one of the worst running in recent years.

Vautour is likely to head down the gold cup route.
Sprinter Sacre is finished, as is Sire De Grugy (imo).
Josses Hill doesn't jump well enough.
Gods Own prefers going right handed.
Simonsig & Champagne Fever both have something to prove for differing reasons.

My fancy for the race, and it's fairly speculative, is Sizing Granite at 33/1 each way. He missed the Arkle last year as the owners ran Smashing in the race. However he won the 2 mile novice Chase at the grand national meeting, beating Gods Own in the process. HDB said afterwards that they'd be targeting the top 2 mile chases in Ireland this winter.

If anything happens to UDS this winter then this race is wide open and I'd be fairly confident that the winner of the 2016 Champion Chase didn't run in this year's renewal.

1.5pts each way SIZING GRANITE
 
I'd think that More of That would take all the beating in the World hurdle if coming back to full fitness/best form.
Staying hurdlers looks a weakish division to me and uncertainty over which may/may not go chasing.
Shaneshill is one who struck me a World hurdle winner in waiting when staying on in the Supreme but I heard he may be chasing ?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Not a nap but I really like the look of the Champion Chase as a betting race at the moment. I'm not a massive fan of UDS, not convinced Cheltenham really suits him, and I'd also be worried about the possibility of it being quicker ground on the Wednesday. At 6/4 he's not a betting proposition at the moment.

Dodging bullets is a horse I have never taken too and I still can't believe he won the race last year. The place horses were Somersby and Special Tiara, which makes that race one of the worst running in recent years.

Vautour is likely to head down the gold cup route.
Sprinter Sacre is finished, as is Sire De Grugy (imo).
Josses Hill doesn't jump well enough.
Gods Own prefers going right handed.
Simonsig & Champagne Fever both have something to prove for differing reasons.

My fancy for the race, and it's fairly speculative, is Sizing Granite at 33/1 each way. He missed the Arkle last year as the owners ran Smashing in the race. However he won the 2 mile novice Chase at the grand national meeting, beating Gods Own in the process. HDB said afterwards that they'd be targeting the top 2 mile chases in Ireland this winter.

If anything happens to UDS this winter then this race is wide open and I'd be fairly confident that the winner of the 2016 Champion Chase didn't run in this year's renewal.

1.5pts each way SIZING GRANITE
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Not sure how many realised it but Golds Own traded at shorter than 1.30 approaching the 2nd last in the Arkle, he met that all wrong and jumped out to the right and was beaten 6l, but a better stride and leap could have made all the difference, so he may not be as bombproof as appears....
 
I'd rather side with Annie Power at 6/4 than UDS.
 
Very good opinion on the champion chase there, at this moment in time i'd have to stick with UDS but like the select few out there I wasn't totally impressed with him last year however he beat everything put in front of him and you'd have to think in his second season of chasing willie will get a fair amount of improvement from him although he has admitted before they just have to let the horse bowl a long in front and hopefully burn his rivals off, glad you said vatour for the gold cup, really can't see how they would drop him in trip into the champion chase after last season
 
Min being backed again today. Must due a run soon im guessing. I managed to get a tenner at 16's and tenner at 14's on 10 bet.
 
Hargam is my latest bet. Take out Faugheen and the rest are of similar ability (bar Douvan). Hargam wasn't far behind Peace & Co in the triumph and at 40/1 I feel he is way overpriced. Looks an out and out 2 miler to me and may have more class than he's shown so far.

1pt each way HARGAM 40/1
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Hargam is my latest bet. Take out Faugheen and the rest are of similar ability (bar Douvan). Hargam wasn't far behind Peace & Co in the triumph and at 40/1 I feel he is way overpriced. Looks an out and out 2 miler to me and may have more class than he's shown so far.

1pt each way HARGAM 40/1
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I agree with most of that but I'd have to have drunk a dozen beers and half a bottle of JD and have a gun in my ear to even think about backing a 5yo in the race....
 
Agreed Istabraq - but at the price, that stat alone isn't enough to put me off. If My Tent Or Yours goes over fences then he'll probably be the number one for the green and golds. A lot of water to go under the bride before then though.
 
MTOY is a horse I love, thought he would win multiple Champion Hurdles.....
 
Istabraq said:
I agree with most of that but I'd have to have drunk a dozen beers and half a bottle of JD and have a gun in my ear to even think about backing a 5yo in the race....
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Its changed a bit Istabraq in last decade. I updated gaults five year old champion hurdle stats below.


Two ran in 2015 finishing 6 and 7 of 8 runners 2104 Our Conor 5s tragically killed, Petit Zig 6th at 28s. 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). 2012 Zarkandar (9/1) 5th, Brampour 7th. Mille Chief finished last in 2011. In 2010 they finished 3rd and 5th. In '09 5 yr olds finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (all 16s and below). In '08 Katchit won, Punjabi was 3rd, the only two in the field. Between ‘02 and ‘07, 14 of that age group ran and 2 were placed (‘07 Afsoun, ‘02 Bilboa). Only 2 of the 14 were returned below 14s and neither were placed (Detroit City 6/4 fav and Essex 9s). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse ad See You Then won as 5 yr olds.

To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 6 of the 21 to try, have been placed. All of those finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph ). Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 6 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F. The 5th was Zarkandar when P Nicholls was quoted post race as saying he 'wasn't right'.

Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.

Interestingly up to Faugheen last year Katchit in 2008, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year, all in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Yep, I'll go with that Mayo.
My angle on the Triumph hurdle is that it's an extreme stamina test for 4yo horses, the New Course is much stiffer than the Old Course where the Champion hurdle as we all know is run, my thinking therefore is that Triumph horses are unlikely to have the turn of foot/speed needed to win a Champion and that Triumph horses generally make better World Hurdle horses.
So as you say, it may not necessarily be the 5yo stat that I take issue with, it's the previous years Triumph horses.
Sadly very few 4yo horses run in the Supreme but if they did I'd be more inclined to give them more of a chance in teh following seasons Champion....
 
Istabraq said:
Yep, I'll go with that Mayo.
My angle on the Triumph hurdle is that it's an extreme stamina test for 4yo horses, the New Course is much stiffer than the Old Course where the Champion hurdle as we all know is run, my thinking therefore is that Triumph horses are unlikely to have the turn of foot/speed needed to win a Champion and that Triumph horses generally make better World Hurdle horses.
So as you say, it may not necessarily be the 5yo stat that I take issue with, it's the previous years Triumph horses.
Sadly very few 4yo horses run in the Supreme but if they did I'd be more inclined to give them more of a chance in teh following seasons Champion....
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Interesting angle Istabraq. Zarkandar deffo a better stayer. Katchit was a tough little horse but won a pretty weak Champion. 2014 Triumph form turned out to be pretty poor but think last years graduates might be a better bunch. If MTOY goes chasing would be interested in Hargam as an ew..he might the one for 2017 but needs to improve past Peace & Co of his own age never mind eveything else.
 
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Some years ago I used to have ante post doubles, back something I fancied and double that horse with Quevega to win the Mares on the basis Quevega was always only ever going to the Mares, and at around evens/shade of odds on you were effectively getting the chance to double the price of the horse you fancied, didn't always pay off but I thought it was a sound strategy given the lack of depth in the Mares division.
Same now applies with Annie Power, ignore the last flight horror show from last March she would be an absolute certainty for this seasons renewal, so if for example you wanted to back Faugheen now in the Champion Hurdle at evens, stick Annie Power in the double and turn Faugheen into a 3/1 shot, and don't forget every race at the festival is 1/4 the place so an each way double on the two even money shots gets you 56% of your win stake back should one of them get done on the line....
 
Istabraq said:
Some years ago I used to have ante post doubles, back something I fancied and double that horse with Quevega to win the Mares on the basis Quevega was always only ever going to the Mares, and at around evens/shade of odds on you were effectively getting the chance to double the price of the horse you fancied, didn't always pay off but I thought it was a sound strategy given the lack of depth in the Mares division.
Same now applies with Annie Power, ignore the last flight horror show from last March she would be an absolute certainty for this seasons renewal, so if for example you wanted to back Faugheen now in the Champion Hurdle at evens, stick Annie Power in the double and turn Faugheen into a 3/1 shot, and don't forget every race at the festival is 1/4 the place so an each way double on the two even money shots gets you 56% of your win stake back should one of them get done on the line....
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Good shout Istabraq. I would stick UDS in for CC to pay 9/1. :very_drunk:
 
I'm also of the same mindset Istabraq. I put half of my stake on the horse in question and the other half in a double with either Faugheen, Annie Power or Douvan.
 
And of course if you races fall right you get the chance to lay off these days and take a profit before your original fancy runs....
 
The Douvan, Faugheen, AP treble also pays around 11/1, it's difficult to see any of the three getting beat if they all turn up and bring their A game
 
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