Cheltenham Tuesday Thread

[Old Vic]

General Tuesday discussion thread starting with Yankee selection


Objective: To pick a horse that we can collectively back in an official Fat Jockey yankee.

We would like to find a winner at more than 8/1 but up to the Day 1 judge. Blame Mayo if it all goes wrong

What to do now: Post your suggestion on the threads below for a decent priced winner on Champion Hurdle Tuesday.

race threads

Champion Hurdle Day	Champion Chase Day	World Hurdle Day	Gold Cup Day
Supreme Novice News and Tips	Neptune IM News and Tips	JLT Novices Chase News and Tips	Triumph Hurdle News and Tips
Arkle Trophy Chase News and Tips	RSA Chase News and Tips	Pertemps Final News and Tips	County Hurdle News and Tips
Festival Chase News and Tips	Coral Cup News and Tips	Ryanair Chase News and Tips	Albert Bartlett Hurdle News and Tips
Champion Hurdle News and Tips	Champion Chase News and Tips	World Hurdle News and Tips	Gold Cup News and Tips
Mares Hurdle News and Tips	Cross Country News and Tips	Festival Plate News and Tips	Foxhunter Chase News and Tips
NH Chase News and Tips	Fred Winter News and Tips	Kim Muir News and Tips	Martin Pipe Hurdle News and Tips
Novices Handicap News and Tips	Champion Bumper News and Tips		Grand Annual

<tbody>
</tbody>

Race Stats and Trends

Champion Hurdle Day	Champion Chase Day	World Hurdle Day	Gold Cup Day
Supreme Novice	Neptune IM	JLT Novices Chase	Triumph Hurdle
Arkle Trophy Chase	RSA Chase	Pertemps Final	County Hurdle
Festival Chase	Coral Cup	Ryanair Chase	Albert Bartlett Hurdle
Champion Hurdle	Champion Chase	World Hurdle	Gold Cup News
Mares Hurdle	Cross Country	Festival Plate	Foxhunter Chase News and Tips
NH Chase	Fred Winter	Kim Muir	Martin Pipe Hurdle
Novices Handicap	Champion Bumper		Grand Annual

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[loveracing]

I decided to lean towards the following for my day 1 suggestion.

Race: National Hunt Chase aka 4 miler
Selection: Perfect Gentleman
Odds: 25/1 (23/02/15)

FJ Spotlight:
Perfect Gentleman has been running in inadequate trips of late so has been short of pace against the likes of Valseur Lido and Gilgamboa which caused mistakes. Record over 3m hurdling reads 31 where the 3rd was 3L behind Fox Rock. He kick started his chasing campaign with a 13L win over Vics Canvas (2m7f) with the later going in the next time over 3m4f and a recent 1L 3rd to Living Next Door. PG then won his next beating the out of form Sadler's Risk by only 3L over an inadequate 2m4f, and then you have the two bad runs mentioned earlier. He didn't seem to be stopping over 2m7f and jumped very well so no reason why he couldn't give 4m a shot. I think I will have a nibble myself @25/1.

 

[Old Vic]

This price might not last until Friday - from @thespeiler

Bet 365 became the first bookmaker to go NRNB on all the races at the Festival at the weekend, and when that happens I like to trawl through all the races and see if there is any value in uncertain starters who I would give a big chance to if lining up.

One horse jumps out - Vroum Vroum Mag in the 4 miler. At the scratch stage last week, Willie Mullins whittled his team for this down to 4, with Valesur Lido being a highly unlikely runner.

The crux is obviously the ongoing debate between Willie and Gigginstown on Don Poli’s target – this or the RSA. It’s probably 50:50. My gut feel is that Willie generally wins these arguments, but equally the exchanges are suggesting won’t, and that Don Poli will run in the RSA instead. Don Poli’s 3/1 NRNB and whilst I can see him going off very short if he lines up and the likes of Wounded Warrior and The Young Master don’t, that doesn’t scream value at this stage.

The conceived wisdom is that if Don Poli doesn’t run, Patrick will be on Perfect Gentleman (25/1). He’s had plenty of problems but they’ve had a much clearer run with him this time and he won a Grade 2 over 2m4f at Cork in November. He fell early on in the Drinmore and then got stuck in a bog at Limerick at Christmas. It’s difficult to assess how good he is, but he is a ten year old and it’s hard to imagine that he can actually win.

Willie Mullins has said during the season that Vroum Vroum Mag is likely to stay in Ireland, where she’d have some simple tasks in valuable mares novice chases. However, she was left in the JLT, RSA and 4 miler and the vibes are that she might deputise for Don Poli in this, if he were to end up in the RSA.

She’s jumped really well and destroyed her rivals in 3 mares novices chases at up to 2m4f since joining Willie Mullins. The form has worked out with her victim at Cork, Our Katie, winning twice since. She could be anything and already has an RPR of 142 without having come off the bridle – and she gets 7lb here. 4 miles is a different test entirely and good ground is an unknown. However, given her value as a broodmare, there’s no way she’ll be risked unless connections feel that she’ll handle the ground and trip.

She’s 25/1 ante-post but is 20/1 NRNB, which is huge. If she lines up, Don Poli won’t and my guess is that so she’ll start about 5/1 – so she has to be backed now.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

I mentioned VVM on the 4 miler thread the other day, I thought she was a forgotten horse for this because I'd heard mention of her running in one of the hurdle races, she has to be a big player if she turns up, I'm already on based on her being an amazing jumper, I was just a bit uncertain of the trip

 

[mayo]

Thanks lads.

I am busy at work. Will have a good look at them all on Friday.

 

[loveracing]

I mentioned VVM on the 4 miler thread the other day, I thought she was a forgotten horse for this because I'd heard mention of her running in one of the hurdle races, she has to be a big player if she turns up, I'm already on based on her being an amazing jumper, I was just a bit uncertain of the trip

VVM does looks interesting. It looks like the further she runs the further she wins by.

Though I just found this in WM Stable Visit by Will HaylerLast Updated: February 18 2015, 17:23 GMT

Vroom Vroom Mag: I doubt she will go to Cheltenham. She's in the mares' race at Limerick, but we'll see what happens.

-----------------
Also no mention on Perfect Gentleman, so both may not go.

I think we need some more back up suggestions or find horses that will most likley turn up.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

VVM does looks interesting. It looks like the further she runs the further she wins by.

Though I just found this in WM Stable Visit by Will HaylerLast Updated: February 18 2015, 17:23 GMT

Vroom Vroom Mag: I doubt she will go to Cheltenham. She's in the mares' race at Limerick, but we'll see what happens.

-----------------
Also no mention on Perfect Gentleman, so both may not go.

I think we need some more back up suggestions or find horses that will most likley turn up.

My back up selection is already in LR, Hurricane Fly

 

[loveracing]

My back up selection is already in LR, Hurricane Fly

My back up selection will be "Mendip Express" in the Festival Handicap Chase.

Race: Festival Handicap Chase
Selection: Mendip Express
Odds: 14/1 NRNB (24/02/15)

FJ Spotlight:
Form in and around 3m on good/soft & soft reads 11112. 1/1 over Cheltenham and could make it 2/2.

 

[loveracing]

I mentioned VVM on the 4 miler thread the other day, I thought she was a forgotten horse for this because I'd heard mention of her running in one of the hurdle races, she has to be a big player if she turns up, I'm already on based on her being an amazing jumper, I was just a bit uncertain of the trip

20/1 NRNB has now gone for VVM. Now 16/1.

 

[mayo]

I'm probably going to put forward Ned Stark in the Ultima. Anyone like to put me off ?

 

[loveracing]

I'm probably going to put forward Ned Stark in the Ultima. Anyone like to put me off ?

Not much to put you off with Mayo. Seems well treated after today.

Though are judges allowed to put up horses for their day? If so I better study day 2.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Not much to put you off with Mayo. Seems well treated after today.

Though are judges allowed to put up horses for their day? If so I better study day 2.

I don't think a judge should be able to pick for their day, we'd all just pick our own

 

[Karanja Kid]

My first post here, suggest The Druids Nephew each way. Not sure if BG will be up on it but due a big run and picking up a big handicap.

 

[loveracing]

I don't think a judge should be able to pick for their day, we'd all just pick our own

I agree, are you ok with this Mayo?

Though I wouldn't put up my own because I then would have someone to blame. lol

 

[Mytentoryours]

Generous Ransom - Novice Handicap.

 

[Mytentoryours]

Will be at least as good on good ground so no worries on that score and he looks well capable off the back of only an 8lb rise. The weights are so compressed now because there are so many novices rated 130-140 that it is practically a level weights race. Carole's Destrier and Keel Haul are two subsequent winners from only 3 runners to come out of GR's handicap win at Cheltenham.

 

[mayo]

I agree, are you ok with this Mayo?

Though I wouldn't put up my own because I then would have someone to blame. lol

Not really.but seeing some better options now. Keep em coming.

 

[mayo]

My first post here, suggest The Druids Nephew each way. Not sure if BG will be up on it but due a big run and picking up a big handicap.

Backed him for the national. :encouragement:

 

[Morning Glory]

I was going to put Ned Stark up anyway so that might give you a way around the rules Mayo. Paul Jones tipped him last night too at Bangor.

Must be value in Mares if Annie heading to World Hurdle as reported from a Cork. Anyone got An each way poke in the mares?

 

[Morning Glory]

My first post here, suggest The Druids Nephew each way. Not sure if BG will be up on it but due a big run and picking up a big handicap.

Welcome KK.