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Cheltenham Specials....

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Yorkhill was the first horse I looked for. A sensible move by P Power not to quote him imo
 
No Buveur D'air either. Him and Yorkhill would have been the 2 interests that if reverting back to hurdles would be major players.

Kevloaf said:
I am not sure what to do.... is 5/4 a price I would pile in to for Faugheen on the day? Or 2/1 Annie on the day? I just don't know what to think.
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I'm the same. I know we spoke about potentially them going odds against on this a few days back but I never believed it!
I feel like there's something i'm missing...
 
If faugheen runs next week then it will be champion hurdle for him
Mares hurdle for Annie Power
Therefore, 5/1 VVM for stayers hurdle looks big to me. NRNB
 
Bookies will probably do offers on Faugheen / Douvan at 2/1 the week before? (OR 3/1 Annie / Douvan) ... I mean, they let Annie go off a big price and plenty (PLENTY) of people will want to get them beat with the prep they've had, which isn't ideal.

I seem to have my head fixated on the perceived fact that "if they turn up they win" which makes 5/4 look fantastic to me for Faugheen. The price being at 5/4 seems to be the thing giving me trouble though, do I really want to be hammered a 5/4 shot with that many question marks, before a come back run...

Now what price will Faugheen be in this market after 29th Jan...., if he does make it to the course and A, wins or B, loses ... he'll be odds on or bigger, and if he doesn't make the race C, Bigger again?
 
Liammet said:
If faugheen runs next week then it will be champion hurdle for him
Mares hurdle for Annie Power
Therefore, 5/1 VVM for stayers hurdle looks big to me. NRNB
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Agree will be target but VVM might be over rated in my view - she's good not a wonder mare. Annie is at a different level.

Can see her placing just in stayers but something else got to win ?
 
If he wins comfortably he'll probably be 4/6 or 1/2 I would guess. If he loses it all depends on the manner of the defeat, he'll be lengthened but its hard to say how much. If he's beaten heavily he might not even go to the CH
 
Liammet said:
If faugheen runs next week then it will be champion hurdle for him
Mares hurdle for Annie Power
Therefore, 5/1 VVM for stayers hurdle looks big to me. NRNB
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Interestingly they've left VVM unchanged at 5/1 for the stayers hurdle. PP were shortest price about her (implying this was her target) but they've cut the fav, and everything else around her... suggests to me they don't mind taking a bet on her?

Could end up in the Mares if Faugheen OR Annie don't make it... I don't think VVM is a bad bet at 5.1 NRNB but I don't think she has an outstanding chance. HOwever, if she did get declared, could you see her going off fav? Absolutely! I'd probably increase my interest in UNWIMH though personally...


I guess the angle for me with VVM would be back her now and lay her on the day, if she did turn up... because the Mullins, Walsh factor wouldn't let her go off 5/1 (each way price) ... and there isn't a chance she would be second string in this race, when she has options like Ryanair to go for.... whichever race she rides in, Ruby will be on board.... so, back now at 5/1 and lay on the day at say, 5/2??? Not the way I play usually but certainly a consideration. Might move this bit to the Stayers Hurdle thread....
 
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Good reasoning Kev ...the NRNB key though. Its either World Hurdle or Mares for her imo.
 
SkyBet are offering 33/1 for Senewalk for the 2018 Supreme....

I jumped in on the "mug" bet of 12/1 on Senewalk for this year due to all the hype, but....
IF - the hype had substance, he looked to be travelling well over the first 2m on debut until all but stopping.
Has since had a wind op... so that MAY explain the debut run
I think I read somewhere that they will put him away to maintain novice status for next year...

I may throw a £5 Free Bet at it... just in case...
(One for next years Mug Bets thread!!!)
 
Faugheen and UKWIMH 12/1 double with Betfred, anyone think this is a good price?
 
Always one bookies think they can beat in these specials - Fred is such a pussy must think both get beat - first book to close me down - I'd love this to win
 
I havent backed that one yet. They also have Yorkhill and Death Duty 12/1 ive had 2pts on that.
 
If they would take my bet I'd back it ...
 
Not a shop nearby?
 
ryanh97 said:
I havent backed that one yet. They also have Yorkhill and Death Duty 12/1 ive had 2pts on that.
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Ever so slightly bigger on Betfair if peopel have an account with them .... 12.13/1 so not a lot in it haha
 
Kevloaf said:
Ever so slightly bigger on Betfair if peopel have an account with them .... 12.13/1 so not a lot in it haha
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I do have an account with them, it was 14s yesterday at betfred and 12s when i got to the shop so just took the price. I like having my antepost bets on paper if possible, I know what ive got better that way ;)
 
mayo said:
Agree will be target but VVM might be over rated in my view - she's good not a wonder mare. Annie is at a different level.

Can see her placing just in stayers but something else got to win ?
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Yes I share this view. VVM obviously good but also very well placed. She isn't nearly as good as Annie Power.
 
mayo said:
Always one bookies think they can beat in these specials - Fred is such a pussy must think both get beat - first book to close me down - I'd love this to win
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I've been punting seriously for about 12 months now. Started using the points system after reading Patrick Vietch. I've been doing ok getting profit from most months but nothing too massive. I've always been decent at backing boxing and Rugby until I've started concentrating on horses.

I've never been shut down by any bookie. Was it a certain big win or constant wins that got you shut down.

I'm only a member of skybet PP and Betway.
 
GoOnAndTha said:
I've been punting seriously for about 12 months now. Started using the points system after reading Patrick Vietch. I've been doing ok getting profit from most months but nothing too massive. I've always been decent at backing boxing and Rugby until I've started concentrating on horses.

I've never been shut down by any bookie. Was it a certain big win or constant wins that got you shut down.

I'm only a member of skybet PP and Betway.
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Doesn't need to be either unfortunately. Can be for only betting when a bookie is best odds
 
GoOnAndTha said:
I've been punting seriously for about 12 months now. Started using the points system after reading Patrick Vietch. I've been doing ok getting profit from most months but nothing too massive. I've always been decent at backing boxing and Rugby until I've started concentrating on horses.

I've never been shut down by any bookie. Was it a certain big win or constant wins that got you shut down.

I'm only a member of skybet PP and Betway.
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You've obviously managed to slip under the radar.
Very few poeple actually get the closed, but restrictions are placed on accounts that limit the amount you can bet.

I remember the day Paddy Power restricted my account, I tried getting £50 e/w on a 14/1 in the Cesarewich, a race they'd priced up for weeks, I was told I could only have £17 so I tried to have the £17 and it said I could only have £6.
Deliberate strategy of stopping you from punting.
Others are as bad but it makes me laugh whenever I hear PP saying they've taken four figured bets from knowlegable punters.

Accounts get restricted even if they're losing accounts.
I can only assume you're playing for sums that fall below their 'red flag' point.

One day they'll have to start behaving like proper bookies again or every punter will have headed to the exchanges...
 
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