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Cheltenham Preview Nights 2018

Just got in from the Yorkshire Racing Club Cheltenham Preview
Panel were: Andrew Thornton- Jockey
Andrew Holding- Oddschecker Pundit
Luke Elder- William Hill Presenter
David Carr- Racing Post Journalist

Supreme-
DC- likes Claimantakinforgan, forgotten horse
AT- Kalashnikov form rock solid, Slate House at a price ew
AH- Summerville Boy, cant see him out of the frame, great ew price
LE- Claimantakinforgan, Ainchea at a huge price, tizzards horses beginning to come back to form

Arkle-

DC- No bet race to just enjoy
AT- Saint Calvados, doesn't like footpads cheltenham record
AH- Saint Calvados, thinks will come up hill best of all
LE- Footpad wins

Champion Hurdle-
Everyone says BD unbeatable but have ew options
DC- Elgin
AT-MTOY
LE- Verdana Blue 33/1 w/o BD, huge price
AH- MTOY ew banker. With amount of favs on day 1 likes playing ew multis suggests, MTOY, Summerville Boy & La Bague Au Roi as day 1 ew treble. Also says e/w double on MTOY & Lami Serge is the value bet of the meeting.

Mares-

All agree AJ wins

AH comments La Bague Au Roi is 75/25 to go for this race and 14/1 is an ew steal
AT- Midnight Tour huge ew price at 66/1
LE- AJ, La Bague Au Roi, VVM tricast

Other Tuesday races

AH- Any Second now in the Close Brothers though also had good work for De Plotting Shed
LE- Kalondra & Tree of Liberty for Close Brothers

Wednesday
All think Samcro is a machine but no-one thinks he wins on the bridle, much deeper race than market suggests
DC- Keen on Black Op
LE- Another Black Op advocate
AH- Think Next Destination is a great bet and also thinks Black Op is a great price and has a huge future
AT- Samcro win, Vindication to follow him home

RSA-
DC- Likes Ballyoptic
AH- Monalee but it should be in the JLT, Elegant Escape could run a huge race
LE- Monalee
AT- Likes presenting percy but dont think you can crab Black Cortons form, keeps winning and Bryony is a top jock

Champion Chase-
AH- Really likes Min, thinks he keeps improving and will sit in behind ST and could beat Altior, thinks Altior may bounce
AT- Top Gamble EW
LE- Ordinary World EW

Bumper
AH- extremely keen on Rhinestone, NAP of the meeting

Others:
LE- very keen on City Dreamer in the Fred Winter
AT- Berbank in the Coral Cup

Thursday
JLT-
DC- Fancies Terrefort
AT- Another Terrefort fan
AH- Invitation only
LE- Benetar

Ryanair-
DC- Cloudy Dream, great ew prices
AH- Race to bet in now, half the field wont run and 9/4 on UDS is a cracking price. Balko des Flow ew
AT- UDS wins NAP. Waiting Patiently wont run
LE- Cloudy Dream EW

Stayers-
DC- Sam Spinner
AT- Sam Spinner, Supasundae wont stay
AH- Lami Serge will definitely make the frame, Sam Spinner wins
LE- Supasundae

Other thursday selections:
AH- Sort it Out & Glenloe in the Pertemps, Laurina in the Mares Novice absolute banker
DC- Patricks Park in the Plate, NAP of the meeting
LE- Kings Socks & Traffic Fluide in the Plate

Friday

Triumph-
Everyone laying AS & Redicean, AH recalls doing the same with DDS last year and still having egg on his face so fully expect AS to win!
DC- Mr Adjudicator
AT- We have a dream
LE- We have a dream, cant believe this is 10/1!
AH-We have a dream, & stormy Island forgotten horse due to lack of runs, should be favourite

Albert Bartlett
Panel struggling to disect this race, AH says need a horse with plenty of experience
AT- Chris's dream
LE- Brahma Bull & Paisley Park

Gold Cup-

DC- Definitely Red
AH- Our Duke, Native River
LE- Total Recall
AT- Sizing John, Our Duke, Total Recall 1,2,3

Others-

County-
LE- Flying Tiger NAP of the festival

Most importantly I asked Andy Holding at the end of the night which of Gordon's horses wins the Cross Country. He said he had heard a lot of good words for Tiger Roll (grrr!) but he has backed COC for the Grand National!
 
Cheers CoC. In regards to the cross country, check the thread here as there was some positives from the preview night Tim wrote up
 
Didn’t take too much from the Chester preview, although a guy came up to me out of the blue during the Triumph discussion and told me to back Nube Negra in the Fred Winter, completely unprompted.
This has only ever happened to me once before on my first visit to Cheltenham where a guy told me Druids Nephew was the best handicapped horse at the festival and to get on. I didn’t, and he hosed up.


Determined not to make that mistake I’ve put 2U on him
 
Hurricane fly said:
Boylesports have one starting now on Facebook live

Ted Walsh
Robbie Power
Jonny Ward
Leon Blache
Click to expand...

Just looking at Tim’s notes (thanks Tim) - did they happen to mention any UK horse at the preview or do they really think Ireland will win all 28 races?

I’m all for supporting your own, but you’re not doing your audience any favours if you’re discounting everything trained this side of the water!

All you want is a bit of impartiality & for them to flag up what they’ve heard that we might not have.
 
Cashew King said:
Just looking at Tim’s notes (thanks Tim) - did they happen to mention any UK horse at the preview or do they really think Ireland will win all 28 races?

I’m all for supporting your own, but you’re not doing your audience any favours if you’re discounting everything trained this side of the water!

All you want is a bit of impartiality & for them to flag up what they’ve heard that we might not have.
Click to expand...


To be fair CK, I have found with previews that it works both ways - UK previews favour British horses, and Irish previews Irish horses - just the way it goes! And obviously, Irish are better!

:devilish:
 
Chester preview night 6th March

Panel

Stephen Wundke (compare)
Stewart Machin
Oliver Greenall
Henry Daly
Jerry Williams
Martin Chapman

Day 1

Supreme

OG: Can’t see Getabird getting beat. Bit of value in Somerville Boy

SM: Likes Kalashnikov. Connections think he will be better on better ground. The Betfair Hurdle was a battle and will help . Getabird too short.
My Tent or yours was 2nd in this off 150 after dropping back from handicaps but Kalashnikov is 154.

JW: Looking for value. First Flow at 33/1 each way looks ok. Had grade 2 win and improved a lot. Not sure on Getabird left handed. Also likes Kalashnikov

MC: Opposes Getabird. Only short because of Mullins factor. Scarlet Dragon has been laid at big price in recent days.

Arkle

SW: Likes Footpad

HD: Astonished that someone on TV had said Footpads jumping was fragile. Doesn’t agree with that. St Calvados not without a chance.

SM: Agrees with Henry, Footpad been impressive. St Calvados can’t dominate an Arkle. Be surprised if Petit Mouchoir can turn the form around.

JW: Keen on St Calvados who is a quick jumper. Does seem to get away with odd mistake though as he hurdles the fences. Thinks PM can get closer.
Brian power an enigma, good engine but dodgy jumper.

OG: Keen on brain Power after wind op. wants it good. PM probably will win though

Champion Hurdle

OG: Thinks race is similar standard to last year and Buveur D’Air will win.

SM: MTOY always finishes 2nd and will probably do so again. BD is only championship hurdler in country. Faugheen is risky. Second LTO wasn’t good.

HD: Faugheen could have just bounced LTO but form is strange from that race when Supasundae beat him. Faugheen found still be exceptional though so don’t write off.

JW: Back MTOY without BD. Great bet and will place. Supasundae travelled so well v Faugheen LTO.

MC: Elgin EW possibly and MTOY is a definite place Chance. They have had money for Wicklow brave EW

Mares

HD: Apple’s Jade probably too good and wouldn’t back against her. Would love to see her in the Stayers but the Mares Hurdle dilutes some of the other races.

SM: Cant oppose AJ either and also wishes she was going for the Stayers or even the Champion Hurdle. SM has a vote from the floor on whether they would like to see AJ in one of the other races and the overwhelming outcome was Yes.

OG: AJ all the way, likes La Bague Au Roi EW if she goes here.

MC: Confirms Warren Greateaux is still undecided about where La Bague Au Roi runs (from Haydock preview). Benie Dex Dieux unbeaten but has big gaps between runs. AJ to win.

JW: AJ will win, a battler of a horse.


Day 2

Ballymore

OG: Samcro unbeaten, stable very confident and is versatile on the ground.

HD: Samcro expensive purchase (375K). Rock solid.

SM: On the Blind Side no same calibre as Samcro, he is in a different parish to the others.

JW: Next Destination & Duc De Genievres not in same league as Samcro, he is the 2nd coming and has no flaws. In a normal Ballymore OTBS would have a great chance.

MC: Samcro all the way, he is the real deal. OTBS decent form.

RSA

HD: Presenting Percy is a great horse, can win over many distances. He is a natural talent.

SM: Monalee has festival form which is important and his jumping seems fine. PP is a big danger. Lots of horses in the betting with unconfirmed targets which makes it difficult.

OG: Heart is with PP. Monalee’s may have done him good as he thought he was the Dog’s B*llocks before that.

JW: Black Corton great chance, loves Briony Frost. His rating has gone from 131 to 155 which is incredible. Would prefer heavy ground though but has just won him over. Would also be a good horse to back at Aintree. Respects PP.

HD: Paul Nicholls must be astonished by Black Corton as he didn’t rate him at first. He has come from nowhere and a brilliant training performance.

MC: Boys in the office like Mia’s Storm. Said Ballyoptic’s win at Wetherby on 3rd February was rated the best form in this by the Racing Post.

SM: Ballyoptic not quite good enough.

QMCC

HD: This race is the ultimate test, cannot get away with poor jumping.

OG: Altior will up his game and is hard to beat. Only question mark is lack of prep.

SM: Min won’t be good enough. Altior should win. Politilogue won’t be good enough either.

JW: Altior solid, Min not good enough. Puts up Douvan who will either win or be pulled up.

MC: Not even sure that Douvan will run. Altior should win.

HD: Cannot remember one horse who has won a championship race first time out in a season and would be astonished if Douvan won.


Day 3

JLT

SM: Again not sure what is turning up here. Maybe Modus EW if the market leaders go elsewhere. Has Cheltenham form over Hurdles.

JW: Also likes Modus. Finian’s Oscar form has gone t*ts up but he does travel well.

HD: If ground is quite soft Terrefort can go well.

OG: Benatar is a big price, has beaten FO and won 3 times this season but this is a weak renewal.

MC: Again not sure what will run here. Invitation Only for Mullins maybe. Modus wants it soft.

Barry Geraghty has said Modus has improved for a fence.

Ryanair

OG: UDS is a decent price, bigger than he has been for races round here in the past. Top Notch is a big threat.

SM: Waiting Patiently unlikely to run and has every right to miss the festival for Aintree. Top Notch value bet and maybe wasn’t fit LTO.

JW: Sporting bet on Cue Card EW. Also says WP won’t run. Thinks UDS will empty out up the hill.

HD: CC deserves his place in the line-up and on Ascot form could win it.

MC: CC would be a popular winner and agrees with Jerry re: UDS. Balko Des Flos nibbled at in market.

Stayers Hurdle

JW: Likes Supasundae, Sam Spinner winning would be a good story. Unowhatimeanharry not without a chance.

OG: Sam Spinner would be a lot shorter if with a top trainer. Good price.

SM: Yanworth his choice. Only beaten twice over Hurdles. Didn’t work going over fences and least exposed over this trip.
HD: The New One would also be a popular winner for different reasons to SS. Been a top class horse. Worries about Joe Colliver’s experience on Sam Spinner as it is difficult to make all in a championship race.

MC: Agrees with Oliver that SS is overpriced. Says owner hasn’t backed Penhill yet. EW angle for him is L’Ami Serge. Yanworth probably the class horse in the field and probably his main choice.

Day 4

Triumph Hurdle

JW: 2002 was last Mullins win in this. Likes Apples Shakira and is on at 25s. Redicean jumped well last weekend and is a threat.

OG: Likes Redicean, he has been impressive. Alan King has good record in this. Thinks he will stay as won over 1m 6f on the flat. King thinks he is as good as Katchit.

SM: No strong opinion but probably would go Redicean the same as Oliver. Hard to quantify the form of Stormy Ireland’s where he got run of the race.

HD: Not many horses who do well in this go on to be superstars. It is a tough race for 4 year olds. Apples Shakira is worthy favourite.

MC: Thinks Redicean will go off favourite due to the Alan King factor.

Gold Cup

JW: Might Bite quirky but talented and has good form in the book. Thinks Native River will end up favourite on the day. Improved this year but would prefer good ground.

SM: Also thinks NR will go off favourite as well and will finish in the frame. Minella Rocco trained especially for this so ignore the form. Nicky Henderson has said that he can’t guarantee Might Bite will stay the trip so couldn’t back him if the trainer isn’t confident.

MC: Very few horses that run well in this in previous years come back and do the same, it takes a lot out of them. Road to Respect has gone under the radar a bit. Djakadam massive for an EW play but won’t win.

HD: Killultagh Vic run over hurdles wouldn’t put him off. Native River with Dickie Johnson up is a formidable partnership. Surprised Mullins is running Total Recall here as sees him as a National horse so Mullins must think he has a shout.

SM: The best stayer normally wins and not necessarily the best horse. Not convinced about Our Duke’s form.

OG: Definitely Red wants it soft and is his pick.

Foxhunters

SM: Sent Jonathan Neesom a text and he told him to say Volnay de Thaix as it would make him sound savvy.

OG: Shotavodka EW at a big price.

HD: Since the rule change this has become difficult to win. Virak has best form this year and has beaten Shotavodka. A huge price.

JW: Likes Wonderful Charm on good ground but a little quirky.

MC: Nicholls has said Wonderful Charm is his best bet of meeting.
Handicaps

SM: General Principle for Elliot at massive prices but still entered in 3 races (Ultima (doesn’t think he will get in), Browns Advisory & Kim Muir). He could be aimed at the Irish National though so may not run. Also likes Esprit De Somoza in the Fed Winter.

OG: According to Tom Messenger assistant trainer with Skelton, Nube Negra is going to win the Fred Winter. They are convinced.

HD: Hopes Patricks Park gets in the Browns Advisory as has a good chance. Then reeled off a stat that Nick Henderson had only 93 winners in handicap chases between 2007 & 2017, only 9.3 per year.

JW: Very keen on Who Dares Wins for the Pertemps. Had injury problems but all clear now. He also gave a good word for Blackbow in the Bumper who is rated very highly. Says he wont be backing any Venetia, Hobbs or Jonjo horses as stables out of form.

MC: Told the story from previous night about Glenloe being entered at Market Rasen just to see what the handicap mark would be but didn’t run. Others backed are Mall Dini, Any Second Now, De Plotting Shed and Thomas Campbell. Also some money in the Fred Winter for Lisp. His tip was Tiger Roll in the Cross Country.

SW: Liked Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima and Max Dynamite in either the Coral or the County.
 
Once again I thank all of the posters on this fantastic forum.
 
From Athlone last night, a mate popped down...

Present were :

G.E. : Gordon Eliott

KATE : Kate Harrington

N.M.: Noel Meade

D.M. : Donagh Meyler

A.L. : Andrew Lynch

DAVE : David Jennings

ED :Eddie O'Leary


SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE :

G.E. : Gordon thought Getabird was far too short and needs soft ground. He thought that Mengli khan would be a lot closer this time as he is a different horse now to the last day. He would prefer good ground for him and thought getabird would prefer softer conditions and also the question of getabird going left handed at cheltenham could be a question mark.


DAVE : he thought that sharjah was a great each way bet and a place bet on paloma blue .


KATE : she said that at 50/1 , puppy power was very keen on Ainchea which he rides for colin tizzard.


ARKLE CHASE :


G.E. : He thought that footpad might struggle coming up the hill. he also worried that petite mouchir might get lit up beforehand but eddie o'leary said that he would be wearing a hood in the preliminaries to help him. In general all the panel fancied petite mouchir over footpad . Later in the night , Gordon stated that hhe did not like saint calvados at all and nobody gave brain power a chance.


CHAMPION HURDLE :


All the panel agreed that bouveur dair looked a certainty. David said that heliked mick jazz each way to which gordon replied that he would be ridden to be placed but would be delighted if he finished in the first five. Gordon said my tent or yours or wicklow brave without the favorite would be his choice. Noel also liked wicklow brave without the favorite. Kate and eddie said that if ruby rode yorkhill , he would have a great chance. Noel nearly fell off his chair when he heard this and said that he would give up training if yorkhill won a champion hurdle.


MARES HURDLE :


No surprise here with all going for apples jade. eddie mentioned le bague au rio each way. someone else mentioned jers girl but gordon said she was more likely to go for the coral cup.


BALLYMORE NOVICES HURDLE :


Again , all agreed that samcro was a banker with eddie mentioning vision des flos each way.


CHAMPION CHASE :


Andrew and donagh thought altior a good thing . noel said that if douvan is back to himself , he would beat altior. Gordon said that david casey was very negative about douvan and david is regarded as the best judge in mullins stable.


RSA CHASE :


Gordon said that dounikos runs here and that he had an each way chance but was not sure if he was good enough. he really liked presenting percy. andrew fancies monalee here and reckons that he should be favorite . david mentioned ballyoptic each way at a price . the panel in general were a bit worried that presenting percy may not have recovered fro the hard race the last day against our duke.


BUMPER :


Gordon and noel liked blackbow with gordon saying that his horse felix desjny had a good each way chance and he would not be bringing him if he did not think he could go close. eddie liked hollowgraphic and acey milan. donagh gave a good mention for rhinestone , while kate was very impressed with carefully selected and said that it rode a good bumper that he won .


JLT CHASE :


The only horse mentioned here was modus who david reckoned had a great chance.


RYANAIR CHASE :


Eddie really likes balko des flos on good ground and said it it turnrd soft , he might not run and that sub lieutenant wouls be preferred on soft ground. noel liked un de sceaux and thought he would be a certainty on soft ground but andrew disagreed and reckoned that he might not stay on soft ground. david also liked balko des flos on good ground.


STAYERS HURDLE :


David like lami serge here. all the panel were against bacardis while kate was very positive about supasundae. gordon , noel and eddie all liked supasundae. gordon also mentioned wholestone each way.


TRIUMPH HURDLE :


Kate , gordon and david all liked apples shakira. gordon mentioned his own horse farcslas as well saying that he stayed well and donagh also liked him . eddie mentioned mr. adjudicator as a negative. gordon also mentioned sayo each way at a price.


ALBERT BARTLETT :


Gordon said that he would run dortmund park here if he worked alright this morning. david liked callet mad and clan des obeaux but also said that if you had backed the horse that had run the most times in the past years , you would have collected four times at big prices . the general feeling was to stay away from the fancied horses. andrew gave a good mention to chris's dream , saying that he could be anything.


GOLD CUP :


There was mixed reaction here saying that any of seven or eight horses could win with question marks over so many and that it was a sub standard gold cup this year. kate said that they made a mistake running sizing john at christmas and that he was in great form now. she said that noel fehilly had been over to school our duke over a few fences at home and was delighted with him . she could not split the two of them but under pressure went for sizing john as she rides him out all the time. she said that sizing john preferred better ground while or duke would prefer a bit of give. noel said that road to respect was in good form and was better going left handed but to me did not seem over confident . donagh could not have might bite at all and liked native river on soft ground but gave road to respect a big each way chance. gordon could not have might bite either and did not like native river either . he said in an open gold cup , killultagh vic had a good chance as had our duke. he said that gary o'brien is all over our duke and he is a great judge. david also went for our duke saying that he was overpriced and should only be a 6/1 chance.


CROSS COUNTRY CHASE :


Gordon said that both cause of causes and tiger roll were in great form and had been over to cheltenham for a school over the fences . he said jamie codd rides cause of causes , keith donoghue rides tiger roll and davy russell rides bless the wings. if pushed , he said he would go for cause of causes as he had done it before . donagh recommended doing a tricast combination of gordons three horses.


OTHER RACES :


Gordon : he said de plotting shed was in very good form but was gone a bit short in price for the close brothers novice chase but said that tycoon prince was a bit inexperienced but had a good each way chance at a price. he mentioned that he would love to win the martin pipe again and thought flawless escape had a great chance if he gets in . he also said that blow by blow says well and could be well handicapped and that he would have four runners in it . he has jonathan moore , donagh meylerand two other lads booked to ride but not decided yet ,who rides who. he napped presenting percy for the rsa chase and said that jers girl could be well handicapped in the coral cup.


ANDREW : He napped laurena in the mares novice hurdle saying she was a good thing.


KATE : Kate liked rock the world in the grand annual and jers girl in the coral cup.


NOEL : He said that no decision had been made yet where snow falcon would run but was meeting the owners today. he napped samcro and gave good mentions to cause of causes and tully cast.


EDDIE : Eddie said that he liked footpad and presenting percy and gave duca de thaix as a dark horse for gigginstown in the county hurdle.


DAVID : David mentioned a few in the handicaps , dingo dollar in the ultima , jury duty in the national hunt chase , any second now in the close brothers chase , don't touch t in the grand annual , louis van pouch in the pertemps and le breuil in the coral cup.
 
Thanks again for the write ups.

I see Jer's Girl being put up for the Mare's Hurdle on here so above will be news to some. Some of the tips for good ground horses like Rock The World will need to be taken with a pinch of salt. At least O'Leary was honest about Balko Des Flos.

At The Races tonight. Pretty juvenile at times last year. Hopefully, they will spend more time on the races and less on trying to be funny.
 
Puppy power saying he really fancies Ainchea for the Supreme, day later he’s not declared. Owner/trainer info seems more valuable
 
kinloch brae said:
Thanks again for the write ups.

I see Jer's Girl being put up for the Mare's Hurdle on here so above will be news to some. Some of the tips for good ground horses like Rock The World will need to be taken with a pinch of salt. At least O'Leary was honest about Balko Des Flos.

At The Races tonight. Pretty juvenile at times last year. Hopefully, they will spend more time on the races and less on trying to be funny.
Click to expand...

That's the style though isn't it? Beats loads of pundits poe faced talking out of their backside imo
 
I tend to take these previews with a pinch of salt.

More entertainment than majorly informative.

But a nice way for each venue to make a few quid.
 
It would be interesting for someone to collate and cross-reference the comments of the serial performers to see how consistent or not they are.
 
robith said:
That's the style though isn't it? Beats loads of pundits poe faced talking out of their backside imo
Click to expand...

I have never listened to a podcast.

As I said on here the Unibet preview was dreadfully dull. For me last year's equivalent of this was much too far the other way. Ideally you want to strike a balance in saying something useful without sending the audience to sleep. Most things will have been said about the Graded races by now so I think it would be better if they concentrated on other races.
 
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