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Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists
- Thread starter JackieMoon33
- Start date
Mentioned him a few weeks back mark may be in the 140s now but with Davy on his back would have a very good chance if going here, not got an entry in the betfair which is good just need to see if he holds one in the ryanair hurdle at Lepo fez as his trainer stated he will have one big race to go for then back on the flat in the back end of the summer etc.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Also cut him for the Plate as I noted a week or so ago.
Still struggle to see him as a 3m horse.
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archie
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I still don't get the love for Blow By Blow. I don't think he's run anywhere near to 143 over fences so, if you factor in the Irish handicap penalty:
1. he wouldn't get in the 0-145s
2. as you need to be a good few pounds ahead of the handicapper to win a Festival handicap, he'd have to improve about a stone.
You couldn't exclude him from the NH Chase until you saw the entries (this week I think) but the trend is towards needing to be a 145 to 150 horse to win that.
1. he wouldn't get in the 0-145s
2. as you need to be a good few pounds ahead of the handicapper to win a Festival handicap, he'd have to improve about a stone.
You couldn't exclude him from the NH Chase until you saw the entries (this week I think) but the trend is towards needing to be a 145 to 150 horse to win that.
He's a festival winner, trained by Gordon Elliott, who has been leading trainer for the past two Cheltenham Festivals... maybe you've not heard of him
He hasn't shown good enough form this year to be winning anything, but I think the love comes from the very obvious case that he's been there and done it... so deserves respect wherever they plot him.
The previous roll of honour from the Martin Pipe also lends itself to thinking he'd be better over further, although you can't hang your hat on that.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
He's a festival winner, trained by Gordon Elliott, who has been leading trainer for the past two Cheltenham Festivals... maybe you've not heard of him
He hasn't shown good enough form this year to be winning anything, but I think the love comes from the very obvious case that he's been there and done it... so deserves respect wherever they plot him.
The previous roll of honour from the Martin Pipe also lends itself to thinking he'd be better over further, although you can't hang your hat on that.
I couldn't have responded to Archie's post any better. Well said
Al Ferof
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I have to agree with that regarding Blow By Blow. Festival form and grade 1 form (albeit Bumper grade 1 form) are blue chip in my opinion and wherever this guy ends up, I’d have a little flutter on him.
I think the 4 miler would really help his jumping too as the pace should be a little easier, but clearly has stamina to prove if that ended up his target.
Just looking through his form though, there does seem a clear difference between his performances on soft versus quicker surfaces
I think the 4 miler would really help his jumping too as the pace should be a little easier, but clearly has stamina to prove if that ended up his target.
Just looking through his form though, there does seem a clear difference between his performances on soft versus quicker surfaces
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
The G1 @ Punc and more recent Florida Pearl dispel any concern I have about soft ground dependency.
fter race at*Cheltenham Fri, 16th Mar, 2018 (1st)**He got a soft lead and fair play to the horse, he was a Grade One winner. He looked well handicapped, but I thought the ground was too soft for him.
Gordon Elliot
After race at*Fairyhouse Mon, 28th Mar, 2016 (1st)**He's a fine big horse, a real chasing type. I suppose he'll go hurdling next year, Eddie (O'Leary) said three mile hurdling, but he's every inch a chaser - a real staying chaser. I'd say he'd want a good dig in the ground just by his size but he is by Robin Des Champs and they go on better.**W P Mullins
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Based on whats been presented to you, I get the feeling he could win by 25 lengths next time out on proper good ground and you would still not fancy him on good ground at cheltenham
Based on whats been presented to you, I get the feeling he could win by 25 lengths next time out on proper good ground and you would still not fancy him on good ground at cheltenham
7 wins only 1 had good in description. He's a boat.
archie
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:encouragement:
If Gordon has any kind of plot going, and it would be unusual to use G1s for plotting, I still reckon it's for the Irish National via the NH Chase. We won't know the Festival handicap mark until the end of February but there has to be a chance that it will rule him out of the Kim Muir and the Close Bros.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
He is being campaigned on good ground in races he is not expected to win, so I don't hold losing to Delta Work over 2m4f on good ground against him. He ran much better in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase on good ground but still wants further because he is a boat (I agree with that). I don't think taking his frequency of runs on soft ground as an indicator to that being what he prefers/needs makes much sense based on connections comments & G1 win on good ground. Don Poli has more ability than BBB but he is a boat that had only ever raced on Sft/Hvy before winning the Martin Pipe on good ground, same race won by BBB. Other than Punchestown in April, Don Poli only ever raced on Sft/Hvy before winning the RSA on good ground. People often make the mistake of seeing horses frequently run on Sft/Hvy and come to the conclusion that that's what they need. I actually think good ground over 4 miles would suit BBB down to the ground. Anyway, we share differing opinions which is all good - I get your point of view despite disagreeing with it. I just hope he ends up in the 4 miler.
The trainer comments don't amount to much. Mullins said he wants a good dig. Elliot said he thought the ground was too soft even though he won easily on it. I agree that running on soft ground can be due to circumstances but he looks a big slow horse and it all happens too quick on good ground.
charlie
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The 4 miler, by its very nature, will not happen too quickly for him regardless of whether the ground is good or heavy.
Can't Catch Me
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I've a sneaky feeling Total Recall might be targeted at the Ultima and he would be a very classy entry to this race.
Un Temps Pour Tout won it off a mark of 155 two years ago and I wouldn't be surprised if TR is dropped a couple of pounds from his mark of 156 after the weekends run. The trip would look ideal for him.
Might be that the English handicapper takes a dim view of him, as he was still going well when he came down in the GC last year, but one Im keeping my eye on anyway.
Un Temps Pour Tout won it off a mark of 155 two years ago and I wouldn't be surprised if TR is dropped a couple of pounds from his mark of 156 after the weekends run. The trip would look ideal for him.
Might be that the English handicapper takes a dim view of him, as he was still going well when he came down in the GC last year, but one Im keeping my eye on anyway.