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Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

Faugheen_Machine said:
I think this rise gives them a big problem. Off 134 he had to run again and with a good showing he would have been raised sufficiently to get into the Close Brothers. 138 is a grey area as I feel it will be below the cut off and it's tricky to still stay under the 145 ceiling with a win nto.
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Why do you think the cut off will be 2lb higher than the last two years FM?
 
The cut off will depend on the ground, loads came out last year due to the heavy going. If it had been gd/soft there’s no way mister Whitaker would have got in. 138 will be touch and go, either sneaks in at the bottom or just misses out imo
 
Kautostar said:
The cut off will depend on the ground, loads came out last year due to the heavy going. If it had been gd/soft there’s no way mister Whitaker would have got in. 138 will be touch and go, either sneaks in at the bottom or just misses out imo
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As above.

3 or 4 years ago the top 20 at the 5 day stage all stood their ground, last year a load weren't declared because of the ground. In a typical running of this race I'd be surprised if 138 got you into this race, given that it's 7lb off top weight.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think this rise gives them a big problem. Off 134 he had to run again and with a good showing he would have been raised sufficiently to get into the Close Brothers. 138 is a grey area as I feel it will be below the cut off and it's tricky to still stay under the 145 ceiling with a win nto.
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A 7lb rise to play with is plenty enough movement for them to have another run IMHO.

He's going to have win well against a smart, in form field to exceed that 7lb surely?
 
He could get raised another couple of pounds being stood in his box yet. The horse he beat at Chepstow is running in the Somerset National this week and the horse he beat into 3rd at Newbury on Boxing Day runs at Newbury tomorrow.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think this rise gives them a big problem. Off 134 he had to run again and with a good showing he would have been raised sufficiently to get into the Close Brothers. 138 is a grey area as I feel it will be below the cut off and it's tricky to still stay under the 145 ceiling with a win nto.
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They may take comfort from Rather Be last year who was given a provisional rating of 143 then did win half the track but Hendo somehow managed to get the 143 to stick.
All in vain though because this was probably half a pound too much, much to my cost...
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
As above.

3 or 4 years ago the top 20 at the 5 day stage all stood their ground, last year a load weren't declared because of the ground. In a typical running of this race I'd be surprised if 138 got you into this race, given that it's 7lb off top weight.
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Completely agree that the ground will play a factor in the cut off point.
 
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle 33/1 or 25/1 NRNB

I'm sure a lot of you will be thinking I have gone mad, and indeed for some of you IG may well have been a cliff horse for some time, given his early promise as a juvenile. His decline is worrying, but ultimately he is not void of ability still, as shown in the Galway Hurdle, which has produced numerous winners since, and his neck 2nd the following race. He would be your typical JP 'plot' having sat quiet, losing plenty, waiting for that moment to strike, and his rating of 134 now means he is in dangerous territory of being incredibly well in at some point.

Since the 2 runs mentioned above he has been taking it easy in his races, having gone up a few lb's for the Galway & Killarney runs, he is back down again.

2 seasons ago he finished 6th in this race off 150, finishing ahead of last seasons winner Mohaayed on that occasion, last season he was a fair bit behind off 148, he is now 14lb's lower in Ireland, but coming over here he will likely be given a couple of extra lb's, such is the way the handicapper works for the Irish horses.

I wouldn't like to say he is going to be a 'cert' but having slipped so far down the weights, possibly by design, and his Cheltenham record, prior to last season, he must now be in 'cracking each way' territory, and after having 33/1 winner Mohaayed last season I am ready to have some of the same this time around ;)
 
Haha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.

Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!

All seriousness, it's a good point/case
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.

Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!

All seriousness, it's a good point/case
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Someone had to, I took the plunge :triumphant:
 
Haha, I bet there is nobody on here that can say they've never backed him.
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha, I bet there is nobody on here that can say they've never backed him.
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I was literally thinking of the same thing and it nearly ended up on the post, as I was writing it haha!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle 33/1 or 25/1 NRNB

I'm sure a lot of you will be thinking I have gone mad, and indeed for some of you IG may well have been a cliff horse for some time, given his early promise as a juvenile. His decline is worrying, but ultimately he is not void of ability still, as shown in the Galway Hurdle, which has produced numerous winners since, and his neck 2nd the following race. He would be your typical JP 'plot' having sat quiet, losing plenty, waiting for that moment to strike, and his rating of 134 now means he is in dangerous territory of being incredibly well in at some point.

Since the 2 runs mentioned above he has been taking it easy in his races, having gone up a few lb's for the Galway & Killarney runs, he is back down again.

2 seasons ago he finished 6th in this race off 150, finishing ahead of last seasons winner Mohaayed on that occasion, last season he was a fair bit behind off 148, he is now 14lb's lower in Ireland, but coming over here he will likely be given a couple of extra lb's, such is the way the handicapper works for the Irish horses.

I wouldn't like to say he is going to be a 'cert' but having slipped so far down the weights, possibly by design, and his Cheltenham record, prior to last season, he must now be in 'cracking each way' territory, and after having 33/1 winner Mohaayed last season I am ready to have some of the same this time around ;)
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Decent ground come March, won't be anywhere near 33-1!

Backed him every year since the Triumph... those were the days. :triumphant:
 
Possibly wants to go up in trip now?
 
Anyone now the well being of king socks?
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.

Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!

All seriousness, it's a good point/case
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John Constable/IG Reverse Forecast, now there is a bet for you haha
 
I'd had quite a bit of rum... haven't backed JC myself haha
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd had quite a bit of rum... haven't backed JC myself haha
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I have had 1/2 Pt EW at 50s, I just had to as I thought the same as you Kev but the last run made me wonder. Ah well, its done now haha.
 
Would someone be so kind as to put up the list of qualifying dates for the Pertemps please.
TIA
 
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