Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[Hurricane fly]

If you believe twitter Ruby will be setting of every alert going on the callers monitor

 

[BigChaang]

Haha! It's hard to pick what race should be last though.

I'm usually exhausted. I didn't bother with it in my first two betting festivals (probably as I was only watching on TV and partly because I wouldn't have heard of anything in the races). Only had the winner once, although had a horse place every year bar 2016. Not interesting but it was right in front of me

If it were up to me , The last race would be the Champion Bumper , being a flat race , should be less injuries .,
and it's my least favourite race , .

 

[Quevega]

If it were up to me , The last race would be the Champion Bumper , being a flat race , should be less injuries .,
and it's my least favourite race , .

If they didn't want to mess moving races to different days.
It'd have to be a hurdle, Triumph, Bartlett, or Martin Pipe.

But If I was in charge I would bring all races forward and start at 1pm, and the last race would be at 5pm.

Tuesday last race would be Champion Hurdle,
Wednesday last race would be Queen Mother.
Thursday Stayers
And Gold Cup at 5pm on the Friday.

And realistically they should change it to Wed - Saturday.

If you want to promote racing and the big races that's the way to do it. Or something like that.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Pacific De Baune has got another small field novice race tomorrow at Donny. He’s already jumped nicely on debut but has a rating of 139 which will need to be handled delicately if they opt for the Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase. He may well prove better than a handicapper but if his mark doesn’t change after tomorrow, the options could be open.

 

[TC2]

Pacific De Baune has got another small field novice race tomorrow at Donny. He’s already jumped nicely on debut but has a rating of 139 which will need to be handled delicately if they opt for the Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase. He may well prove better than a handicapper but if his mark doesn’t change after tomorrow, the options could be open.

i think hendo got one beat in that race at Donny last year

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

If they didn't want to mess moving races to different days.
It'd have to be a hurdle, Triumph, Bartlett, or Martin Pipe.

But If I was in charge I would bring all races forward and start at 1pm, and the last race would be at 5pm.

Tuesday last race would be Champion Hurdle,
Wednesday last race would be Queen Mother.
Thursday Stayers
And Gold Cup at 5pm on the Friday.

And realistically they should change it to Wed - Saturday.

If you want to promote racing and the big races that's the way to do it. Or something like that.

It was the county hurdle as the last race for a long time. I'm not sure why they decided to move it to the Grand Annual and it would make sense to change things around slightly.

 

[archie]

The big race of any day should definitely not be the last one. It's bad enough getting out when departures are staggered but it would be mayhem if everyone left at the same time.
The 13.00 to 17.00 move would work and having the County as the last race again is fair enough. I'm hoping to have a runner in both the County and the Grand Annual so it's likely to be a late night for me either way.

 

[Kevloaf]

Glenloe - Kim Muir
I feel I'd regret not mentioning him for this race. Scooby has made a good case for him in the 4 miler thread, and he may well end up there, but he's certainly on my shortlist for this race now.

Gordon has only had 1 runner in the race each year, since 2013 and none the two years prior. It looks like this:

2018 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - 3rd at 5/1
2017 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - UR at 5/1F
2016 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Codd - 1st at 9/2
2015 - Bless The Wings (Elliott/Nina) 2nd 28/1 (Codd 1st on The Package)
2014 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Nina) - 2nd at 13/2
2013 - Romanesco (Elliott/Gigg/Nina) - 3rd at 8/1
2012 - no runner
2011 - no runner

So from 6 runnings, that is 3221U3. I have no doubt whatsoever I'll be taking whatever Elliott does run seriously.

He's shown a decent level of form with Delta Work, who was 145 going in to Punchestown after beating Glenloe a nose - now Delta Work has gone straight into novice chasing and looks to belong at graded level, and there is no doubt that could be the case with Glenloe, however (as was pointed out), they kept Glenloe's true ability hidden with a view to collecting the Pertemps and didn't amke the cut one year, before getting beaten a nose after a tardy jump at the last in this years renewal. I don't think it takes a HUGE leap to say that Glenloe will be campaigned over fences to gain a very similar mark that he is as a hurdler (142). I think he's better than that, and if he turns up in the Kim Muir, he's a 5/1 shot at best.

 

[Quevega]

The big race of any day should definitely not be the last one. It's bad enough getting out when departures are staggered but it would be mayhem if everyone left at the same time.
The 13.00 to 17.00 move would work and having the County as the last race again is fair enough. I'm hoping to have a runner in both the County and the Grand Annual so it's likely to be a late night for me either way.

Poor reason that archie, beating traffic

 

[Quevega]

Glenloe - Kim Muir
I feel I'd regret not mentioning him for this race. Scooby has made a good case for him in the 4 miler thread, and he may well end up there, but he's certainly on my shortlist for this race now.

Gordon has only had 1 runner in the race each year, since 2013 and none the two years prior. It looks like this:

2018 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - 3rd at 5/1
2017 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - UR at 5/1F
2016 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Codd - 1st at 9/2
2015 - Bless The Wings (Elliott/Nina) 2nd 28/1 (Codd 1st on The Package)
2014 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Nina) - 2nd at 13/2
2013 - Romanesco (Elliott/Gigg/Nina) - 3rd at 8/1
2012 - no runner
2011 - no runner

So from 6 runnings, that is 3221U3. I have no doubt whatsoever I'll be taking whatever Elliott does run seriously.

He's shown a decent level of form with Delta Work, who was 145 going in to Punchestown after beating Glenloe a nose - now Delta Work has gone straight into novice chasing and looks to belong at graded level, and there is no doubt that could be the case with Glenloe, however (as was pointed out), they kept Glenloe's true ability hidden with a view to collecting the Pertemps and didn't amke the cut one year, before getting beaten a nose after a tardy jump at the last in this years renewal. I don't think it takes a HUGE leap to say that Glenloe will be campaigned over fences to gain a very similar mark that he is as a hurdler (142). I think he's better than that, and if he turns up in the Kim Muir, he's a 5/1 shot at best.

I like Glenloe very much for the races people have mentioned in last day or two.
However, it's not a foregone conclusion there is a lot more improvement to come simply by comparing with Delta Work. I agree that both showed there best form at Cheltenham, but Delta work was a five yr old novice and Glenloe a 7 yr old having his second season and he may not have been hiding his ability as much as some think. I was on him for the pertemps in 2017 and 2018 so have watched every race of his and it never looked obvious he was a lot better, I just trusted Elliotts record in the handicaps.
But he is very much of interest to me for the same reasons mentioned.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Glenloe - Kim Muir
I feel I'd regret not mentioning him for this race. Scooby has made a good case for him in the 4 miler thread, and he may well end up there, but he's certainly on my shortlist for this race now.

Gordon has only had 1 runner in the race each year, since 2013 and none the two years prior. It looks like this:

2018 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - 3rd at 5/1
2017 - Squouateur (Elliott/JP/Codd) - UR at 5/1F
2016 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Codd - 1st at 9/2
2015 - Bless The Wings (Elliott/Nina) 2nd 28/1 (Codd 1st on The Package)
2014 - Cause of Causes (Elliott/JP/Nina) - 2nd at 13/2
2013 - Romanesco (Elliott/Gigg/Nina) - 3rd at 8/1
2012 - no runner
2011 - no runner

So from 6 runnings, that is 3221U3. I have no doubt whatsoever I'll be taking whatever Elliott does run seriously.

He's shown a decent level of form with Delta Work, who was 145 going in to Punchestown after beating Glenloe a nose - now Delta Work has gone straight into novice chasing and looks to belong at graded level, and there is no doubt that could be the case with Glenloe, however (as was pointed out), they kept Glenloe's true ability hidden with a view to collecting the Pertemps and didn't amke the cut one year, before getting beaten a nose after a tardy jump at the last in this years renewal. I don't think it takes a HUGE leap to say that Glenloe will be campaigned over fences to gain a very similar mark that he is as a hurdler (142). I think he's better than that, and if he turns up in the Kim Muir, he's a 5/1 shot at best.

If they can get him into Kim Muir then he'll be favourite, almost by default. Are there any 'any race' prices available?

 

[Kevloaf]

I like Glenloe very much for the races people have mentioned in last day or two.
However, it's not a foregone conclusion there is a lot more improvement to come simply by comparing with Delta Work. I agree that both showed there best form at Cheltenham, but Delta work was a five yr old novice and Glenloe a 7 yr old having his second season and he may not have been hiding his ability as much as some think. I was on him for the pertemps in 2017 and 2018 so have watched every race of his and it never looked obvious he was a lot better, I just trusted Elliotts record in the handicaps.
But he is very much of interest to me for the same reasons mentioned.

That may well be the case. I don't think 7 going 8 means he can't be better than he's shown...but even so, he'd have a fair mark and one of the better jockeys, stamina no problem, so I'd fancy him anyway probably... AND more likely to run here than the 4 miler if he's not got that much ip his sleeve perhaps?

He may well open up way too short, I see PP and 365 have some horses priced and I wouldn't go near a handicap yet at those odds - just have to hope someone goes 25/1 :very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

If they can get him into Kim Muir then he'll be favourite, almost by default. Are there any 'any race' prices available?

14/1 any race... (15/1 as it's lads or WH)

 

[jono]

If they can get him into Kim Muir then he'll be favourite, almost by default. Are there any 'any race' prices available?

Yep and sadly anyone asking to add him in would make him in all likelyhood a short price - couldn't see anymore than 14/1 even now.

 

[Quevega]

That may well be the case. I don't think 7 going 8 means he can't be better than he's shown...but even so, he'd have a fair mark and one of the better jockeys, stamina no problem, so I'd fancy him anyway probably... AND more likely to run here than the 4 miler if he's not got that much ip his sleeve perhaps?

He may well open up way too short, I see PP and 365 have some horses priced and I wouldn't go near a handicap yet at those odds - just have to hope someone goes 25/1 :very_drunk:

Assuming he runs over xmas. I'd be happy for Glenloe to disapoint first time out and then early January anything around 16-1 and upwards NRNB for Kim Muir would be just fine.

Noticed PP & BF got prices up for quite a few for Coral Cup now but not Storyteller, It would be interesting to ask them what antepost price they'd quote and it's give us a pointer for the NRNB price.

Also what price would they put Glenloe up for KIm Muir as they have several priced up for this now also ?

 

[Quevega]

Glenloe might go under the radr a little as they're still quoting Mall Dini and Squoatuer and other usual suspects.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd want 1/4 the odds 4 places 16/1 NRNB Kim Muir with cashout available.... that's about the absolute lowest price I'd take.

Is that wishful thinking? Might be a wasted case if so :grumpy:

 

[Quevega]

I'd want 1/4 the odds 4 places 16/1 NRNB Kim Muir with cashout available.... that's about the absolute lowest price I'd take.

Is that wishful thinking? Might be a wasted case if so :grumpy:

It's being greedy, You've made a very good case about Elliotts horses in the KM, so NRNB is perfect as if it does run then most of what you said should happen, i.e good jockey, likely better than mark, and single figures likely favourite.

 

[Kautostar]

Assuming he runs over xmas. I'd be happy for Glenloe to disapoint first time out and then early January anything around 16-1 and upwards NRNB for Kim Muir would be just fine.

Noticed PP & BF got prices up for quite a few for Coral Cup now but not Storyteller, It would be interesting to ask them what antepost price they'd quote and it's give us a pointer for the NRNB price.

Also what price would they put Glenloe up for KIm Muir as they have several priced up for this now also ?

If you do ask them for a price on the storyteller and glenloe throw in a few more horses for price quotes that might run to disguise the one you’re really after!

 

[Folski]

The World's End surely blown his chance at Ultima there.