Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[jack1092]

Wins it for me

 

[Kevloaf]

he wont win.. he cant haha :highly_amused:

and if you placed the BDM bet too your technically only getting 10/1 which is available :witless:

Haha, it wasn't level stakes but I do agree.

Quevega has a nice way to spin it in my favour though, looking at returns :highly_amused:




I'm really surprised at the negativity (or lack of positivity).... he looks more of a Gold Cup horse than Lostintranslation, Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux and they're all shorter than him?

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

i think the boat comparision is unfair? They went at a decent pace there, BDM isn't slow and he's come back at him coming over the last. He's hardly Don Poli-esque.

 

[darlojim]

Haha, it wasn't level stakes but I do agree.

Quevega has a nice way to spin it in my favour though, looking at returns :highly_amused:




I'm really surprised at the negativity (or lack of positivity).... he looks more of a Gold Cup horse than Lostintranslation, Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux and they're all shorter than him?

For me hes just one of those horses you hate/dont see serious potential :/
He wont be within 5 lengths of ABP unless its really soft IMO though.

 

[Kevloaf]

For me hes just one of those horses you hate/dont see serious potential :/
He wont be within 5 lengths of ABP unless its really soft IMO though.

Bristol De Mai was 6.25L behind Al Boum Photo

Santini just beat him 3.5L


The way he plods on is the potential, 1f further, I think he'd have beaten Bristol De Mai further.... which puts him bang there, no?

 

[Humble Pie]

What was I thinking backing Slate House ffs

Santini did well to beat BDM but I'd be surprised/disappointed if there wasn't one (or two) better in Ireland

Ditto with all of that

 

[Quevega]

Bristol De Mai was 6.25L behind Al Boum Photo

Santini just beat him 3.5L


The way he plods on is the potential, 1f further, I think he'd have beaten Bristol De Mai further.... which puts him bang there, no?

Will depend on the ground and the pace, his lack of tactical speed is the problem.
He will never come round a couple and gallop away. Sizing John style. ABP style.
So if the ground is good and they don't go mad, he'd stay on but wouldn't win.

 

[Quevega]

The ground for this race is going to be crucial (in an open year)
I'm glad I've not had a proper bet yet.
Will select mine once I know the weather forecast I reckon

 

[Kevloaf]

Will depend on the ground and the pace, his lack of tactical speed is the problem.
He will never come round a couple and gallop away. Sizing John style. ABP style.
So if the ground is good and they don't go mad, he'd stay on but wouldn't win.

Did he show a lack of tactical speed today?
Looked like they went quick and he was always up in the van?

The ground will never be good on Gold Cup day either so I doubt we'll ever know.





I think people are forgetting that Bristol De Mai is actually a good horse.

 

[Quevega]

Did he show a lack of tactical speed today?
Looked like they went quick and he was always up in the van?

The ground will never be good on Gold Cup day either so I doubt we'll ever know.





I think people are forgetting that Bristol De Mai is actually a good horse.

Good to soft then
I think you know what I mean.
tactical speed is about positioning at the sharp end. coming though a gap when it's there, or around a horse etc.
On better ground there'll generally be more of them coming up the hill. So this is a useful attribute.

Soft ground then the field thins out and it becomes more of a long slow gallop to the line. That'll suit Santini too.

The old Classy vs Plodder conundrum.

 

[Kevloaf]

Good to soft then
I think you know what I mean.
tactical speed is about positioning at the sharp end. coming though a gap when it's there, or around a horse etc.
On better ground there'll generally be more of them coming up the hill. So this is a useful attribute.

Soft ground then the field thins out and it becomes more of a long slow gallop to the line. That'll suit Santini too.

The old Classy vs Plodder conundrum.

The ones with tactical speed will be trying to move up to the position Santini is likely already in though :highly_amused:

Of all the attributes (behind talent), plodding up the hell less slowly than anything else is the trait I'd want in a Gold Cup horse.


There is only really Kemboy and Clan Des Obeaux that I consider to be one that could be way too classy, and that's not proven yet, and couldn't be confident about until it was too late/already happened.



Al Boum Photo doesn't scream to me he's a horse classy enough to add his name to the list of multiple winners but I'd clearly back him if he they were the same price.





People have gone off Santini (like I did) because he was crap on debut.... but ever since he was first spoken about it's been about that extra two furlongs up the hill in a Gold Cup, and nothing I've seen today would put me off him now...

 

[Quevega]

He's a good chance given the right conditions.

Archie did a good piece near the beginining of this thread, that's panning out nicely.

 

[Kevloaf]

He's a good chance given the right conditions.

Archie did a good piece near the beginining of this thread, that's panning out nicely.

About what....

too vague for me to find and bump ..... :highly_amused:

 

[archie]

Best prices:

6/1 Kemboy
8/1 Al Boum Photo
12/1 Santini
12/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Delta Work
16/1 Lostintranslation
16/1 Presenting Percy

Purely a personal view.

You cannot back any horse at less than 10/1.

Kemboy is (deservedly) the highest rated staying chaser in these islands.
Al Boum Photo is the champion but how many do it twice?
Santini and Topofthegame are both dour stayers. They will need proper soft going.
Lostintranslation and Delta Work both have a touch of class and have won over 2m4f. Big players.
Presenting Percy needs to turn up and win somewhere or he will remain Presenting P*sstake.

7 May 2019?
#1

 

[Quevega]

It's an angle but supporters of Santini will point to the fact that Delta Work has had twice as many lifetime runs as him with Topofthegame and Lostintranslation somewhere in between.
The fact is that they all improve at different rates and times so you're not necessarily guaranteed progress using either measure. Certainly, in Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, the 6yos were the big improvers last season but they fitted in the middle range of previous runs at the start of the season.
For what it's worth, and I may have said this before , for me Santini and Topofthegame are thorough stayers who would need proper soft or heavy to figure. I don't think that they have the basic speed that you would need to win a Gold Cup even in last season's going and speed isn't something that comes with age/maturity. Delta Work and Lostintranslation have both demonstrated a decent turn of foot and I see them as the main dangers at this stage but I wouldn't touch anything until it's back on the track because it's just guesswork as it stands.

This still makes sense.

 

[archie]

This still makes sense.

Double bubble!:encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, both good posts.
Unsurprisingly.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Bristol De Mai was 6.25L behind Al Boum Photo

Santini just beat him 3.5L


The way he plods on is the potential, 1f further, I think he'd have beaten Bristol De Mai further.... which puts him bang there, no?

Absolutely. Hes bang there. That was only his 5th run over fences and you would think theres improvement in him. Hendo said he expected improvement too in his post race interview.

 

[charlie]

The one thing Santini did today that I didn't think he'd do is put up a fight, which he did well, so that's a tick but I would still rather side with LIT, who I thought was more impressive v BDM at Haydock than Santini was vs him today. Fine margins, I just think LIT will prove a better horse.

 

[Kevloaf]

The one thing Santini did today that I didn't think he'd do is put up a fight, which he did well, so that's a tick but I would still rather side with LIT, who I thought was more impressive v BDM at Haydock than Santini was vs him today. Fine margins, I just think LIT will prove a better horse.

Fair...

LIT was more disappointing last time out than Santini was first time out

I'd definitely prefer a horse to be improving their form than the other way around, as the season progressed.




They're a similar price, I can see people being more forgiving of LIT than Santini, despite Santini still winning when he disappointed, whereas LIT didn't?