Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[archie]

Disko I think would stay, just keeps galloping and was strong to the line over 3m.

So was Kemboy but we'll learn more next Saturday.

 

[boopa]

Kemboy has an engine just needs to settle better.

 

[boopa]

The Gold Cup is a strong trends race. Age is against kemboy and Al Boum Photo. Only two 6yo's have won it in the past 50 odd years.

 

[Quevega]

The Gold Cup is a strong trends race. Age is against kemboy and Al Boum Photo. Only two 6yo's have won it in the past 50 odd years.

Good job they'll be 7 next year then

 

[boopa]

Haha good point. Six 7yo's in the past 36 years. 8 or 9 is the sweet spot.

 

[archie]

Haha good point. Six 7yo's in the past 36 years. 8 or 9 is the sweet spot.

The 'sweet spot' depends on when you start the stat. Three 7yos on the trot 2005/6/7 so it's not so clear cut as that.

 

[boopa]

Even if you start it from 2005. It's one of the filters I've used for this race and it has been profitable. It doesn't mean I wont consider a horse that doesn't fit the trends it's just a guide.

Others are:
2nd or 3rd season chaser
Grade 1 winner, preferably 3m
3m winner
Won or placed Lexus or King George
6-12 chase runs
Placed previous festival
OR 166+ RPR 167+ last 2 starts
RSA or Arkle place
Won LTO
Not beaten in Gold Cup
Not retaining Gold Cup

 

[archie]

Nothing much wrong with those trends. I think they're similar to the 10 year trends in the RP on race day although I'm fairly sure that they say age 7 to 9.
I wrote this in August and it fits fairly well with your criteria:

I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.

 

[boopa]

Yeah Native River busted the stats last season.
Totally agree on the first chance angle. You have to make it count.
Comparing dosage profiles is interesting too. Yorkhill had the dosage profile of a Gold Cup winner.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah Native River busted the stats last season.
Totally agree on the first chance angle. You have to make it count.
Comparing dosage profiles is interesting too. Yorkhill had the dosage profile of a Gold Cup winner.

I wouldn't bother with Yorkhill when the same connections have Bellshill

He'll be a big player come March IMO and is still somewhat overpriced.

 

[boopa]

Oh no Yorkhill is gone but it's interesting comparing dosage profiles. Yorkhill, Might Bite and Kicking King had very similar dosage profiles. Douvan, Thistlecrack and Road To Respect have nice Gold Cup dosage. Sizing John busted the dosage trends, he is more speedy.

I'll be against Native River. Might Bite ticked almost every box last season. His chance is gone now.

 

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't bother with Yorkhill when the same connections have Bellshill

He'll be a big player come March IMO and is still somewhat overpriced.

Regarding Bellshill and this race, I can't get this out of my head...

Mullins - Bellshill has come back in looking good and strong. He did particularly well out a grass. I’m very happy with him and he’ll run in Grade 1 staying chases. He has a better record going right-handed than left-handed and there could well be something in that. That said, it won’t stop me running him left-handed, as some of the biggest races there are for him are that way around. In terms of right-handed targets, the King George VI Chase could potentially be considered for him.


WHen push comes to shove, I can't imagine him being my selection for this race, even if he's won the King George. I don't think he'll be the Mullins' best chance come the day - but I do think he'll run and be shorter than he is now.

 

[Scooby91]

Regarding Bellshill and this race, I can't get this out of my head...

Mullins - Bellshill has come back in looking good and strong. He did particularly well out a grass. I’m very happy with him and he’ll run in Grade 1 staying chases. He has a better record going right-handed than left-handed and there could well be something in that. That said, it won’t stop me running him left-handed, as some of the biggest races there are for him are that way around. In terms of right-handed targets, the King George VI Chase could potentially be considered for him.


WHen push comes to shove, I can't imagine him being my selection for this race, even if he's won the King George. I don't think he'll be the Mullins' best chance come the day - but I do think he'll run and be shorter than he is now.

I'd agree with all of that. He's also 1 paced imo and has a race ending mistake in him.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd agree with all of that. He's also 1 paced imo and has a race ending mistake in him.

He was also absolutely walloped by Might Bite in their RSA.

I can't decide whether to add Road To Respect at 16/1 with 365 e/w tonight.

I think he's the best value if I had to have a bet now as I said earlier on... but I don't have to have a bet - and I don't know if he's a likely winner of the race, after falling quite well short last time, ground against him but was against others too that out performed him?

 

[Scooby91]

He was also absolutely walloped by Might Bite in their RSA.

I can't decide whether to add Road To Respect at 16/1 with 365 e/w tonight.

I think he's the best value if I had to have a bet now as I said earlier on... but I don't have to have a bet - and I don't know if he's a likely winner of the race, after falling quite well short last time, ground against him but was against others too that out performed him?

Depends if you think the front 2 have regressed. Id say RTR has strengthened up a little and improved a few pounds for maturity.

 

[jonthehammer]

I don't really go by trends in most races but in this I generally do. Horses do tend to win it on their first run. Its like Djakadam never carried any of my money for this race, he kept coming back and some punters thought "this is his year" but it never was.

Having said that I do think RtR is an improving type but I think he will find 1 too good. Which one I am not sure of at this stage.

 

[Kevloaf]

Depends if you think the front 2 have regressed. Id say RTR has strengthened up a little and improved a few pounds for maturity.

I do, but I think I'll wait to see how the novice crop from last year get on in the Durkan and so on...

I am pretty confident they were a really good group on the whole so I am leaning towards everything from last year being surpassed...

 

[charlie]

The Gold Cup is a strong trends race. Age is against kemboy and Al Boum Photo. Only two 6yo's have won it in the past 50 odd years.

Jumping ability is against Al Boum Photo

 

[Scooby91]

Jumping ability is against Al Boum Photo

Too early to taint him with that brush. Hed had 7 runs in his life going into the rsa . He's a serious engine. When it comes together don't be suprised If he lines up single figures in the gold cup with ruby on his back.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He was also absolutely walloped by Might Bite in their RSA.

I can't decide whether to add Road To Respect at 16/1 with 365 e/w tonight.

I think he's the best value if I had to have a bet now as I said earlier on... but I don't have to have a bet - and I don't know if he's a likely winner of the race, after falling quite well short last time, ground against him but was against others too that out performed him?

I don't see how you can use the RSA from 2 seasons back as a case, especially as they were 'novices', when you then are contemplating RTR up who got 'walloped' by Bellshill in the Punchestown Gold Cup, which is a lot more recent form?

RTR has since come out and smashed the opposition in the JN Wine Champion Chase, to boost the form.

I'd say Bellshill has grown and matured since his novice days. I could not point out the winner of this race to you right now, indeed I probably still won't on the day, but for horses that are overpriced, Bellshill is one of them @ 25/1.