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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Nortons who said:
TS: I don't know how much you want to put on Thistlecrack or if you were looking for NRNB but on the Betfair Exchange you can currently get 20's which is way more the 8-1 you mention.
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I just took a little of the 23.3 for him
 
Invitation only been raised to 162 for winning thyestes, I'd imagine that means he'll run here.
It's looking increasingly likely we'll get a maximum field this year.
Anyone know the criteria to narrow it down ???
 
quevega said:
Invitation only been raised to 162 for winning thyestes, I'd imagine that means he'll run here.
It's looking increasingly likely we'll get a maximum field this year.
Anyone know the criteria to narrow it down ???
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It's done on official ratings, isn't it?
 
Thomas Shelby said:
The extra 80 yards will put Frodon to bed.
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Thistlecrack will be asleep long before then, too old to beat a field like this.
Frodon won't win either as unlikely to be able to lead for long, which both horse and jockey seem to need to perform at their best.
 
quevega said:
No idea, but that would be fair.
Does look like we'll get 20 or very close to it .
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Having scanned through the 43 existing entries I can only see 16/17 which at this stage I would envisage are likely to run here. There could be a couple of others who decide to chance their arm in such an open year but equally the ground could be against a few which would push them to another race or to Aintree. So I reckon no more than 17 will be the final Declared number of runners.
 
Nortons who said:
Having scanned through the 43 existing entries I can only see 16/17 which at this stage I would envisage are likely to run here. There could be a couple of others who decide to chance their arm in such an open year but equally the ground could be against a few which would push them to another race or to Aintree. So I reckon no more than 17 will be the final Declared number of runners.
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There's a lot of definite intended runners compared to previous years.
I did similar and got it to around 20, as I think Mullins will run at least four, probably five.
But there will be injuries and defections so I think 16/17 would be a fair guess.
 
Hardly worth the effort until we're done with Leopardstown and Newbury.

Officially, Presenting Percy only improved a couple of pounds over hurdles.
 
archie said:
Hardly worth the effort until we're done with Leopardstown and Newbury.

Officially, Presenting Percy only improved a couple of pounds over hurdles.
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Yep officially, i'm not part of the PP fanclub but he won that cosily and looked to have a lot left.

Form wouldn't look standout to me but hard to crab him really.
 
Only 13 left in the Irish Gold Cup and a few of them won't run unless there's a proper ease in the ground.
 
I’ve been very quiet on this thread as I’ve found it a very muddling race but here’s where I am at:

I started the year thinking Might Bite would’ve won last year but the ground beat him. Since Haydock, I’ve changed my mind on him for this year. I think he looks a tired horse. I’ve written my bets on him off. I think Presenting Percy is probably too short based on what he’s actualky achieved. However, it’s an open year, nothing has stood out and he won a top class RSA. You only have to listen to comments of trainers like Elliott who said last season how PP was head and shoulders above all the novices last season. I could back him. I haven’t yet asides from a few multiples. We will see.

I couldn’t have defending champion Native River unless the ground came up heavy. Same with Elegant Escaoe. I simply think they will be too far back turning in on better ground to win. Kemboy, Frodon and Chef Des Obeaux are all improving (clearly) but it may be a year too soon for those in a war of attrition that is the Gold Cup. I couldn’t fancy any of those each way at the prices so none of those are bets for me. Same with Al Boum Photo. I know Scooby is massively keen on him but he’s just not for me. Has he beaten a lot to be that short? At least Presenting Percy slammed an excellent RSA field (including him before he fell).

I’ve had a few quid on the machine for Thistlecrack but it’s each way value I’m looking for in an open year with a realistic chance of winning. The each way bets for me are Bellshill and Road To Respect. The closer we go, the more I massively fancy the latter. I had him a couple of years ago in the handicap and couldn’t believe how he went on after there as I opposed him almost every single time since. However, like Bellshill, he’s classy and consistent. Bellshill will definitely stay whereas there’s some doubts about RTR after last year. However, I think 3m 2f at Cheltenham on heavy is a very different proposition to that of a good to soft Gold Cup. If he gets the better ground that doesn’t blunt his speed (and underestimated turn of foot for a stayer), I think Road To Respect is a massive massive player here. That 12/1 NRNB each way is a very decent bet at this stage and he could go second favourite after the weekend if winning a decent renewal of the Irish Gold Cup.
 
I'm already on fancy prices e/w for Kemboy, CDO and Frodon, all of which I have laid on the Exchange to give me a healthy green book. I have though topped up two horses with proven previous form (and class) around which I'm taking a chance that they can demonstrate something similar this season. They are Sizing John and Anibale Fly. In both cases if the trainers can get them to the GC with one good run under their belts then I think they could prove to be of reasonable value. I agree it's a fairly big IF currently but both trainers are indicating the horses are in good form, it's just the ground which is preventing them from showing it. NRNB on these might be the way to go, since if they do make the line up they would only fo so if the trainers considered they had a reasonable chance of running well.

I agree with some pundits that PP has the potential to win this cosily but he's not for me at the current price.
 
It’s literally just the price with Percy isn’t it? With the way the RSA has worked out, the fact we know he relishes the hill at Cheltenham if he was 5/1 people would be saying what a great bet he is
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
It’s literally just the price with Percy isn’t it? With the way the RSA has worked out, the fact we know he relishes the hill at Cheltenham if he was 5/1 people would be saying what a great bet he is
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No, it's the fact that he hasn't jumped a fence in competitive action for 320 days and counting.

5/1 is almost ok but the winner of Sunday's race should be a similar price.
 
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archie said:
No, it's the fact that he hasn't jumped a fence in competitive action for 320 days and counting.

5/1 is almost ok but the winner of Sunday's race should be a similar price.
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I heard PP hasn't jumped a single fence at home either. There was even word that when he approached his first fence the other day, he came to a sudden stop, unseated his work rider, looked at the fence with a puzzled look on his face and just started nibbling the top of it. Gone at the game. Wouldn't take 50's. :)
 
charlie said:
I heard PP hasn't jumped a single fence at home either. There was even word that when he approached his first fence the other day, he came to a sudden stop, unseated his work rider, looked at the fence with a puzzled look on his face and just started nibbling the top of it. Gone at the game. Wouldn't take 50's. :)
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I'd really like to see PP's puzzled look!:very_drunk:
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
It’s literally just the price with Percy isn’t it? With the way the RSA has worked out, the fact we know he relishes the hill at Cheltenham if he was 5/1 people would be saying what a great bet he is
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I agree it is the price, archie would surely take 100/1 now, or 40/1 or maybe 25/1 ....

But the facts are that since the RSA Presenting Percy has been 6/1 or less.

You can not knock someone not wanting to take single figures about a horse ante post.

On the day at 5/1 as the RSA winner is different to 11/4 end of Jan etc.


This horse is great for debate, but ultimately both sides can probably agree
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
It’s literally just the price with Percy isn’t it? With the way the RSA has worked out, the fact we know he relishes the hill at Cheltenham if he was 5/1 people would be saying what a great bet he is
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It's that all he's done is the RSA on very soft ground. Everything that is deemed relevant to a gold cup is all in that 1 run. He's done nothing before and nothing since that remotely makes him a gold cup winner in waiting. Id want to know if hes improved from that as he'll need to take the step up into open company. . I'd want atleast some substance to back that run up.


Not long ago everyone was backing samcro at silly prices for the CH on the back of 1 run in The ballymore. And took the step up into open company for granted.

Now everyone's doing the same with PP on the back of his 1 run in the RSA and taking the step up into open company for granted.

Time will tell if taking the short prices for an unproven quantity in a championship race. Would look a good move.
 
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