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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Kevloaf said:
Why can't Elegant Escape win the Gold Cup?

Native River won
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He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions :)
 
Garrison Savannah said:
He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions :)
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Yeah you are 1/40 to be proved right, but Lord Windemere and Synchronised weren't good enough we're my opinions those seasons


A better 40/1 shot would be Presenting Percy, but we'd have to go back all the way to page 1 to see that :devilish:
 
Garrison Savannah said:
He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions :)
Click to expand...

All the novices from last year need to improve lbs and lbs , that's normal. Some of them do improve which is why they have such a good record.
EE form this year is very encouraging for the novice stayers from last season.
Native river didn't win against much better opposition did he ?
 
We are see things our own way but everything I've witnessed this Christmas period just hardens the case for Native River.
Thought his run in the King George was exceptional and with Might Bite gone at the game, Presenting Percy clearly having issues I'm struggling to find a viable alternative to the current champion.
Kemboy is a horse who has done nothing wrong and has the scope to improve to this level if his stamina can be taken as a given, and as I've said before the fact Mullens threw him in the Irish National as a 6yo having never raced further than 21f before tells me he has an engine, I'd like to see some evidence this will be the target before I get stuck in but I'll be looking to get him in the book soon.
So chipping away at Native River and Kemboy is the New Year plan...
 
Hurricane fly said:
Ramses De Teillee wouldn’t have got within 8 lengths (1+7lbs) of Might Bite let alone CDO
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I don't know how to make my point any clearer than this.

If you strictly went on figures, then it was NOT a Gold Cup performance from Elegant Escape. That's fine.

However, Lord Windemere, Synchronised, Native River and all the other slow stayers that have won the Gold Cup, would ALL HAVE BEEN IN THE SAME BOAT.

They won it because they're dour stayers with enough class to win a big staying handicap.




and if I was going to make a handicapping point

Native River won his Welsh National carrying 4 lbs more than EE did and beat Raz De Maree 1.75L

Elegant Escape won his Welsh National beating Raz De Maree by 24L (with Raz De Maree only 1 lb worse off).

It's a stupid point, but to me that proves it's stupid to take the literal form figures too seriously.

He's out stayed them, and has class.

He's not a 40/1 shot.
 
Kevloaf said:
He's not a 40/1 shot.
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I agree.

Should be at least 66s :highly_amused:

Oh, and beating a 13 year old on the downgrade by only 22 lengths when lbs etter off isn’t a good argument in my eyes
 
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Here's hoping for solid performances of RTR, Bellshill and Disko today
 
I think you're a little harsh on Synchronised, Kev. His races before the Gold Cup were two hurdles and then success in the Lexus for which he went up to 167. Hard to say how good he might have been.
 
Coney Island 66/1 NRNB well worth a punt IMO. Pretty much under the radar this year, but a pleasing return. No doubt he will strip fitter today. He was 25/1 pre March last year too.
 
Very good renewal of the big 3m chase at Leopardstown today, should give us a better guide to this years Irish challengers.
Kemboy and Monalee look the value...
 
Kev,

Native River also didn’t win the Gold cup the year he won the Welsh National. I’d say he improved again the year after with the focused approach. This is a bit similar to the conversation about Frodon, all top class horses should be able to win these handicaps because of inflated ratings from running in other handicaps.


For me I wouldn’t back EE with counterfeit.

14 lengths to find on Percy for a start.

His Thomas Patrick form is sinking like a stone every time TP runs, and you could even say all he’s done is confirm the RDT difference from his 13 length beating in Feb.

I took the same view with Total Recall last year, winning staying handicaps and graded Class 1s are different animals, now maybe last years was a top class renewal and this years isn’t, but I think you are playing for a place and I imagine you could get offered better than 5/1 as a special
 
Hurricane fly said:
Kev,

Native River also didn’t win the Gold cup the year he won the Welsh National. I’d say he improved again the year after with the focused approach. This is a bit similar to the conversation about Frodon, all top class horses should be able to win these handicaps because of inflated ratings from running in other handicaps.
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It's not the same as Frodon, the extreme test of the Gold Cup compared to a C&D handicap chase and the Ryanair isn't the same thing.

Hurricane fly said:
For me I wouldn’t back EE with counterfeit.

14 lengths to find on Percy for a start.
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I'd have no issue with Percy beating him :triumphant:
No argument from me that Percy is the one to beat and 40/1 about Presenting Percy was a better 40/1 shot.


Hurricane fly said:
His Thomas Patrick form is sinking like a stone every time TP runs, and you could even say all he’s done is confirm the RDT difference from his 13 length beating in Feb.
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It is the way he stays on so well, that makes me think he could feature in this years Gold Cup... not his form line with Thomas Patrick. It's visual.

Plod
Plod
Plod

Hurricane fly said:
I took the same view with Total Recall last year, winning staying handicaps and graded Class 1s are different animals, now maybe last years was a top class renewal and this years isn’t, but I think you are playing for a place and I imagine you could get offered better than 5/1 as a special
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I don't think you're getting my point.

Total Recall wasn't/isn't a dour stayer, he was well handicapped to win the Hennessy/Ladbroke Trophy.

Elegant Escape will be off the bridle, and he'll keep running, and running, and running. Exactly like Native River and Lord Windemere and Synchronised did.

I don't even need to look up the horses that've placed in a Gold Cup - they are absolutely littered with plodders.
 
I should probably add..... I have/am making a book for this race, so if I was only backing one horse - it wouldn't be Elegant Escape. :highly_amused:
 
Lord Windermere won a very poor renewal

As has been mentioned before Synchronised won a Lexus and Native River has won 2 Denman chases. They had actual graded form aswell as being real stayers.

Who’s the best horse Elegant Escape has beaten? Black corton?


I’ve no doubt that EE could stay on, but he will do well to be staying on from 10 lengths back
 
You've both outstayed me with this EE chat.
I've pulled up, nosebleed.

FWIW.
Lord Windermere (rated 152 ), did not win a poor renewal, but the overly strong pace suited the dour stayers that day. As is sometimes the case.
 
jack1092 said:
Happy enough with the 4/1 on R2R for today, have to admit though i really fear Shattered Love.
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At this meeting last year Shattered Love and Monalee clashed in the 3m G1 novice chase, Monalee fell before they started getting serious but he was sent off Evs that day, Shattered Love won at 10/1.
Read into that what you will...
 
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