Garrison Savannah
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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Keener on disko over a trip but has his little problems with niggles and minor muscular issues.
Coney island is a nice horse I don't think he wants 3m2 round Cheltenham off a fast pace in the gold cup though, he's not and out and out stayer for me.
Our duke I ha e completely wrote off and I know you are going to mention the related form
. But our duke wants to jump at his own pace, they will go far too quick for him in the gold cup. And he would be knowhere turning in. He's a carbon copy of minella Rocco for me. And that's without his surgery ....
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Keener on disko over a trip but has his little problems with niggles and minor muscular issues.
Coney island is a nice horse I don't think he wants 3m2 round Cheltenham off a fast pace in the gold cup though, he's not and out and out stayer for me.
Our duke I ha e completely wrote off and I know you are going to mention the related form
But our duke wants to jump at his own pace, they will go far too quick for him in the gold cup. And he would be knowhere turning in. He's a carbon copy of minella Rocco for me. And that's without his surgery ....
I don't disagree that he could get out paced. He'll need a good ride, but horses that are just stayers have run incredibly well and even won some Gold Cups (Minella Rocco 2nd isn't a bad run at all, so to be similar for me is fine). I am not saying this isn't a great Gold Cup... but it might not be. Every horse has a question mark around it now, every single one....
I'm happy to be with one I know will be staying on at the end.... if Might Bite holds on then so-be-it, (i've got him covered anyway) but I definitely wouldn't be as bullish about Our Duke not being a factor based on them going too quick.
They went too quick for Lord Windemere and Syncronised and they did quite well
I don't disagree that he could get out paced. He'll need a good ride, but horses that are just stayers have run incredibly well and even won some Gold Cups (Minella Rocco 2nd isn't a bad run at all, so to be similar for me is fine). I am not saying this isn't a great Gold Cup... but it might not be. Every horse has a question mark around it now, every single one....
I'm happy to be with one I know will be staying on at the end.... if Might Bite holds on then so-be-it, (i've got him covered anyway) but I definitely wouldn't be as bullish about Our Duke not being a factor based on them going too quick.
They went too quick for Lord Windemere and Syncronised and they did quite well
Poor renewal. Conti diddnt stay. Bob's worth was over the hill. Synchronised had just won the lexus pulling away he was also a good jumper especially under pressure. . And he certainly wasn't coming in off kissing spine surgery having being tailed off in his last race after a few fences.
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How strongly would you argue that this isn't a poor renewal coming up in 2018 though?
Might Bite can't get up a Cheltenham hill, KG performance not top class on the clock/figures.
Sizing John won a poor renewal last year and just got absolutely walloped, and is now clinically abnormal.
Road to Respect is too closely matched with Outlander for me to think he's top class
Coney Island doesn't want the trip, could be top class but no where near proven it yet
Native River failed last year, yet to reappear, not top class - just a proven stayer
Thistlecrack even at his best isn't that good, not top class on his chase form ever
Bristol De Mai needs heavy ground, not top class
Minella Rocco beaten last season, not top class, just a stayer
Disko not a prolific winner so not top class
Then we're at Whisper, Total Recall and Djakadam. All exposed as not top class
THe only potential Top Class horses for me are Might Bite, Our Duke, COney Island and Disko... and Sizing John although if he won it, I'd argue its just a poorish renewal again.
Might Bite can't get up a Cheltenham hill, KG performance not top class on the clock/figures.
Sizing John won a poor renewal last year and just got absolutely walloped, and is now clinically abnormal.
Road to Respect is too closely matched with Outlander for me to think he's top class
Coney Island doesn't want the trip, could be top class but no where near proven it yet
Native River failed last year, yet to reappear, not top class - just a proven stayer
Thistlecrack even at his best isn't that good, not top class on his chase form ever
Bristol De Mai needs heavy ground, not top class
Minella Rocco beaten last season, not top class, just a stayer
Disko not a prolific winner so not top class
Then we're at Whisper, Total Recall and Djakadam. All exposed as not top class
THe only potential Top Class horses for me are Might Bite, Our Duke, COney Island and Disko... and Sizing John although if he won it, I'd argue its just a poorish renewal again.
Garrison Savannah
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darlojim
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When is the last time there did actually seem to be a top class renewal though? For me its just a real gruelling test of stamina. I honestly do think this year Might Bite will go and win it, just a feeling deep down. A lot of question marks still to be answered but I feel he will justify favouritism come March.
It's a decent renewal. I wouldn't write sizing John off just as I wouldn't completely right faugheen off. Horses aren't machines as much as we'd like them to be.
Kind of contradicted myself with out duke but I'd already wrote him off for win purposes before his seasonal re appearance.
Might bite
Disko
Coney island ( should go ryaniar)
Sizing john
Road to respect.
Thistlecrack (arguably will come on for the run)
Top notch ( if he ran)
Native river (couldn't back him personally but not without a chance)
That s the only ones I could see WINNING the gold cup.
Potential place money on minella Rocco / our duke has no value to me personally
Might bite / Coney island would both go very close in the Ryanair. Might bite more than entitled to run here. Deserves to be fav. Might edge it out.
Sorry I should have put "you can't be convinced Might Bite can get up the Cheltenham Hill without incident!"
The RSA (obviously)
and the hurdle run 15.04.2015 (did the same thing!)
His Novice Chase at Chelt on 13.11.15 was also not very good his jumping all around.
My point is that Might Bite might well be top class, but even if he is, you'll still get a chance from a stronger stayer because of 3 of the 4 runs Might Bite has had at the track...
I'm not writing any of them off, I'm just saying its not looking a top class renewal becuase of negatives for all the horses. I agree with darlojim it isn't usually top class either.
I am not saying one can't win it and become top class either... I was just pointing out my opinion that an unsexy horse is very much on my radar this year...
Gun to my head, I pick Might Bite and hope he puts in a mega performance. MY head tells me he'll put in a memorable performance either way :highly_amused:
I am not saying one can't win it and become top class either... I was just pointing out my opinion that an unsexy horse is very much on my radar this year...
Gun to my head, I pick Might Bite and hope he puts in a mega performance. MY head tells me he'll put in a memorable performance either way :highly_amused:
If they were all 10/1 I couldnt pick any other horse at a later date. I'd have to go might bite.
Gun to my head id prob try and get out of it some other way :heart-borken: maybe suggest buveur dair CH non runner no bullet.
Faugheen_Machine
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@Ui_Maine: Our Duke schooled after racing yesterday and connections very happy with how it went.
BigChaang
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That sounds like very Good news Faugheen . I hope our duke makes it to the gold cup.
PaddyPower haven't got a price for Killultagh Vic for the Ryanair, but have for the Gold CUp at 40/1. 50s available....?
They also diddnt have a price for footpad in the arkle before he ran on his novice chase. They will quote him for the Ryanair but after he's ran in his trial.
Lots of people have asked about TOP NOTCH and I’m pleased to report he’s absolutely fine and enjoying a mini season break before we build him up towards the Ascot Chase next month, where he’ll likely bump into Cue Card, and then probably the Ryanair at Cheltenham.
Probably?
160s on the exchanges... Hendo does seem keen on trying him over further - certainly wanted a go at the King George. I'm a little tempted.
Probably?
160s on the exchanges... Hendo does seem keen on trying him over further - certainly wanted a go at the King George. I'm a little tempted.
I took it a while back his form would make him a player. But seem to be Ryanair.
I will after time one. I thought the same about sizing John who I backed for the Ryanair after beating sub lieutenant last year. but covered gold cup at simular prices to what top notch is on the exchange.
You never know.
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I've done similar with Anibale Fly this year now I know they're going Irish Gold Cup ..... I had SJ 33s NRNB before his Irish Gold Cup run too and was quite pleased with myself as he wasn't my strongest fancy anyway.
If Top Notch can't beat Cue Card at Ascot next time out he won't be winning any race at the festival though