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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

Istabraq said:
Interesting.
Will probably make Definitely Red even better value now...
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Round the top bend I thought American was about to piss it by double digit lengths but then he was out on his feet.

Big fan of the horse but couldn’t have him in this
 
Istabraq said:
Interesting.
Will probably make Definitely Red even better value now...
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I've just brushed over definitely red.

What ground does Ellison say he wants?
 
opatcho said:
Well, I asked Betfair to add American back onto the exchanges the other night after seeing the weather forecasts, and managed to get on at 200's and 1000's with a few pennies

Worth a long shot :-)
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He is back in the market and my bet is still live .... so that is fair enough.

Don;t fancy him anymore though.

That bet was placed pre- Hennessey!

Wouldn't mind 1000/1 though!
 
Hurricane fly said:
Round the top bend I thought American was about to piss it by double digit lengths but then he was out on his feet.

Big fan of the horse but couldn’t have him in this
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Me neither HF, but why supplement a horse who was no match for DR last time ?
DR noew probably Becomes better value but that’s not to say he has a chance...
 
Istabraq said:
Me neither HF, but why supplement a horse who was no match for DR last time ?
DR noew probably Becomes better value but that’s not to say he has a chance...
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I keep thinking about American on this ground.

I know I don't know the ground will be heavy or soft on Friday....but I watched him at Uttoxeter the day after the Gold Cup and thought he was magnificent...

He was well fancied in the Hennessey and didn't get the job done. Can blame ground though?

THis is a HUGE 'if' because it didn't happen however if he'd have had his ground in the HEnnessey I'm of the opinion he'd have won the race - and would be an automatic Gold Cup player on his ground.

33/1 is the best price and that isn't an automatic each way bet... but if it gets softer he has to shorten?

THe point about Definitely Red beating him is fair, and he looked like he had that race won and eventually just faded.

He must be right back on song though? WHy pay the money? I suppose "the" jockey coming back available might have had something to do with it?

I'm undecided... I do have a small win only at a big price on the exchanges from pre-Hennessey but wouldn't cover my stakes.
 
opatcho said:
Well, I asked Betfair to add American back onto the exchanges the other night after seeing the weather forecasts, and managed to get on at 200's and 1000's with a few pennies

Worth a long shot :-)
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I don't think this is a bad bet at all. I'm a massive fan of this horse, it has to be one of the best jumpers of a fence in training. I just love the way if travels and pings its fences. It's a shame he is so fragile and ground dependent , but I will be throwing a few quid on it at those prices just incase it does turn up after more rain.

I would love to see this fella in the King George next season. I know many will think its not in that class, but I think presuming we got soft ground , then I think he could jump them into the ground and go really close to winning around Kempton.
 
He'll get his ground Kev, the rain sweeping through late Wed and during Thur/Fri will ensure no better than soft.
I watched that trials day run and he was swinging down the hill, looked all over the winner approaching 2 out only for Definitely Red to go past like he was standing still, so that led me to thinking perhaps he needs about 6 miles or he just isn't effective going up hills (also ran poorly at Fairyhouse, another undulating track).

That trend of having run of official heavy ground keeps tapping me on the head too.

I found out yesterday that a good friend of mine is close friends with Might Bite's owners, they say the horse is spot on and were extremely confident until the rains came, so ground a concern now for that one.
He's have to overcome another massive trend being a returning challenger having been beaten last year but Native River looks more solid with every drop of rain that falls....
 
Interesting point made by Tony Keenan that people go overboard backing the heavy ground horses and that when looking back on it the class horses usually win the day rather than the soft ground boats.

Definitly Red surely every chance of finishing ahead of American, Might Bite still got a great chance, Native River not good enough would be my conclusions. Got to worry about the bounce factor as well with Native River... a near 11 month lay off is very different to 3/4 months. Rarely will a horse run up to form second time back after a break that long
 
I think this weather will stop Mite Bite winning this and a lot of my antipost bets will be washed down the drain along with the rain..

Was thinking about having a saver on DR @ 12/1 still seems value for a mudlark?
 
Sirbetalot said:
I think this weather will stop Mite Bite winning this and a lot of my antipost bets will be washed down the drain along with the rain..

Was thinking about having a saver on DR @ 12/1 still seems value for a mudlark?
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I've back him, really think the ground boost his chances loads
 
Sirbetalot said:
I think this weather will stop Mite Bite winning this and a lot of my antipost bets will be washed down the drain along with the rain..

Was thinking about having a saver on DR @ 12/1 still seems value for a mudlark?
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Greasy said:
I've back him, really think the ground boost his chances loads
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Long way to go until Friday.,... no guarentee we have that ground then... his price won't get much shorter either will it?

It could I suppose... but I'd wait until the Thursday personally to see what it looks like!
 
This thing about the classy horses still coming to the fore... Might Bite for me in that category. He handles soft ground perfectly fine
 
Robbante said:
This thing about the classy horses still coming to the fore... Might Bite for me in that category. He handles soft ground perfectly fine
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Soft yeah but surely not heavy? Especially with the extra 2f.. but i hope your right mate, got a lot riding on the BITE!
 
That 40/1 must be looking big now on Double Shuffle, 9/1 placed in Supreme, 25/1 placed in the last yesterday, placed again in the Ballymore, now 3rd in the QM, Tom George stable back with a bang
 
Dont know if anyone will know but if I've had an AP bet on this race with Skybet and they are now paying 5 places, do i get 5 places or just the usual 3 with it being ante post?
 
darlojim said:
Dont know if anyone will know but if I've had an AP bet on this race with Skybet and they are now paying 5 places, do i get 5 places or just the usual 3 with it being ante post?
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Usual 3 it'll be for the ante post bet.
 
Added road to respect 14/1 ew with just the 3 places.
 
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