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Supreme Novices 2018

Is Sayar actually out for the season now? Willie's stable tour on atr last week said he was unlikely to make Cheltenham but would maybe make Punchestown. Currently not cashed out my Cheltenham bets just in case.
 
Vautour said:
Is Sayar actually out for the season now? Willie's stable tour on atr last week said he was unlikely to make Cheltenham but would maybe make Punchestown. Currently not cashed out my Cheltenham bets just in case.
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Not out for the season

Unlikely to make the festival.

I cashed out what I could, although that did leave a 25/1 bet
 
Toffees said:
What about First Flow in this? Took the 6s myself. Kim Bailey said he'd be skipping the Festivals because he needs soft or heavy ground.
He said "he'll have one, max two more runs this season....he might pick up a race at Sandown or something like that, when everybody else is thinking about Cheltenham".
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Little pat on the back, nice chasing prospect. Won't be going to the Festival.
 
Hey guys,

Back from Australia over the weekend, I see plenty has happened and some new faces on here which is great to see :)

Before I went away this race was a massive negative for me, and no surprise to confirm nothing has changed. I'm really surprised to see Getabird so prominent in the betting, granted his win in the Moscow Flyer was a solid enough performance, but in relation to times of the race in wasn't particularly encouraging. Min won the race 2 seasons ago at his own leisure in a time of pretty much 5 seconds quicker than Getabird on slightly worse ground too if you believe the 'going' and still went and lost in the Supreme, couple that with the beating distances of Makitorix and both Sharjah & Real Steel should be ahead of of him. Of course it is a dangerous game to take either of these literally, but the reality is that these are all we have to go on from a comparative perspective anyway. I'm sure many will draw their own conclusions from the performance itself and I'm not sure if much or anything I have said has been said previously as I haven't had a chance to catch up on the thread but for me Getabird shouldn't be as short as he is and is a bad favourite for me.

I'm currently at a loss as to what will win this race. It's as messy a race, from a betting aspect currently as I can remember with only 7 weeks to go!
 
Pricewise putting his selection up for this race tonight.

There's a few bits of blue about for If The Cap Fits, wonder if it's him?
 
Interesting Claimantakinforgan is entered in the 2m4f on saturday
 
ryanh97 said:
Interesting Claimantakinforgan is entered in the 2m4f on saturday
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Good ground key for his cheltenham prep according to Henderson. Not going to be good ground on Saturday looking at the forecast so he mentions a race at Musselburgh for him
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Hey guys,

Back from Australia over the weekend, I see plenty has happened and some new faces on here which is great to see :)

Before I went away this race was a massive negative for me, and no surprise to confirm nothing has changed. I'm really surprised to see Getabird so prominent in the betting, granted his win in the Moscow Flyer was a solid enough performance, but in relation to times of the race in wasn't particularly encouraging. Min won the race 2 seasons ago at his own leisure in a time of pretty much 5 seconds quicker than Getabird on slightly worse ground too if you believe the 'going' and still went and lost in the Supreme, couple that with the beating distances of Makitorix and both Sharjah & Real Steel should be ahead of of him. Of course it is a dangerous game to take either of these literally, but the reality is that these are all we have to go on from a comparative perspective anyway. I'm sure many will draw their own conclusions from the performance itself and I'm not sure if much or anything I have said has been said previously as I haven't had a chance to catch up on the thread but for me Getabird shouldn't be as short as he is and is a bad favourite for me.

I'm currently at a loss as to what will win this race. It's as messy a race, from a betting aspect currently as I can remember with only 7 weeks to go!
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Welcome back CoD :encouragement: - how long has it been? seems to have flown!

Not really read any negativity about Getabird but I think you make an interesting point.

The Dublin racing festival is the obvious race to make a big shake up in the market...
 
Did you go racing in Australia CoD? I travelled up the East coast over 15 years ago. Could easily have lived there.
 
Kevloaf said:
Welcome back CoD :encouragement: - how long has it been? seems to have flown!

Not really read any negativity about Getabird but I think you make an interesting point.

The Dublin racing festival is the obvious race to make a big shake up in the market...
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Went for 6 weeks and it absolutely flew, gutted to be back already!

Very true about the festival, for me he isn't of interest yet though, and in saying so just planted some spare pts on Sharjah instead!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Did you go racing in Australia CoD? I travelled up the East coast over 15 years ago. Could easily have lived there.
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Sure did FM, done the east coast and the outback, was amazing, wish I could have stayed longer tbh!
 
Plenty of support for Sharjah in this race this evening and BFSB pushed Getabird out to 100/30. Both are still double figures for the Ballymore, perhaps looking to run them both in this race? Apparently Ricci has never had more than one runner in any novice hurdle race at the Festival, not sure that is true?
 
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Plenty of support for Sharjah in this race this evening and BFSB pushed Getabird out to 100/30. Both are still double figures for the Ballymore, perhaps looking to run them both in this race? Apparently Ricci has never had more than one runner in any novice hurdle race at the Festival, not sure that is true?
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Tom Segal has put him up as pricewise
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Plenty of support for Sharjah in this race this evening and BFSB pushed Getabird out to 100/30. Both are still double figures for the Ballymore, perhaps looking to run them both in this race? Apparently Ricci has never had more than one runner in any novice hurdle race at the Festival, not sure that is true?
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In which case 7/1 NRNB for Sharjah is a steal, only need Getabird to be pulled from the race and it probably goes off favourite and will be Ruby's mount!

I know many wouldn't play the e/way on 7/1 but for me at 1/4 odds, 7/4 is plenty for a place minimum, should it run, in what looks a weak renewal!
 
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Can anyone post the Pricewise write up for this please?

Seems a strange one when the horse isn't certain to run here.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
In which case 7/1 NRNB for Sharjah is a steal, only need Getabird to be pulled from the race and it probably goes off favourite and will be Ruby's mount!

I know many wouldn't play the e/way on 7/1 but for me at 1/4 odds, 7/4 is plenty for a place minimum, should it run, in what looks a weak renewal!
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I understand the thinking CoD but at this stage there are a number of NRNB options which are good value if they turn up. Personally I don't want to tie up too much on these plays, but ultimately it comes down to value. Getabird at 16/1 NRNB was one I should of done, 7/1 on a horse still more likely not to turn up here is just not tempting enough for me at this stage though.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I understand the thinking CoD but at this stage there are a number of NRNB options which are good value if they turn up. Personally I don't want to tie up too much on these plays, but ultimately it comes down to value. Getabird at 16/1 NRNB was one I should of done, 7/1 on a horse still more likely not to turn up here is just not tempting enough for me at this stage though.
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Getabird aside I think the market is pretty much spot on, Sharjah will be the best Irish option, should he run, I'm of the impression Mengli Khan has done his racing for the season, been very solid but maybe it has taken its toll now. Both Claimantakinforgan & If The Cap Fits are the form picks for this side of the Irish Sea, then there is a list of them in the betting that are unlikely to make this race IMO, Samcro, Espoir D'allen, Apples Shakira, Next Destination etc...

Of the rest Real Steel was looking as though Sharjah had his beating, but in fairness was rallying, so he is not a complete write off yet, Summerville Boy has been consistent but for me lacks the class, Sayar has had a setback, unsure how bad this is, and to be honest, IMO, everything else has it all to do on known form.
 
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