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Cheltenham Bumper 2018

An update on Stay Humble, if everything goes ok he will make his debut this month, Cheltenham is still the plan but because of the time scales involved he is probably not very likely to get there and might have to wait for either Punchestown or Fairyhouse.
 
billymag said:
An update on Stay Humble, if everything goes ok he will make his debut this month, Cheltenham is still the plan but because of the time scales involved he is probably not very likely to get there and might have to wait for either Punchestown or Fairyhouse.
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Cheers Billy.:encouragement:
 
billymag said:
An update on Stay Humble, if everything goes ok he will make his debut this month, Cheltenham is still the plan but because of the time scales involved he is probably not very likely to get there and might have to wait for either Punchestown or Fairyhouse.
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Thank god, after reading the first line and a half I was about to hit the bottle
 
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If anyone can cashout for full stake or profit id take it personally . Which I have done myself.
The forms worked out awful and I'd be suprised if he's seen out any time soon in relation to having a championship bumper as a target at any of the spring festivals. Under the race conditions he can't go straight there.
 
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I've taken my stake back. If he is entered up the the next couple of weeks then I'll go back in.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've taken my stake back. If he is entered up the the next couple of weeks then I'll go back in.
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Reluctantly taken my 1 pt stake back at 33/1 HOWEVER...

This is the one that I am torn about... e/w lucky 15 (3 pts total)

Samcro 16/1
CoC 7/1
Apple's Shakira 25/1
Stay Humble 33/1


Can cash out for 39 pts now...

If SH is a non runner - 455 pts for the other 3 winning

The payout for all 4 would be 15480 pts

I'm confident and happy on Samcro and Cause of Causes... Apple's Shakira least of the 3 but for 3 pts happy to potentially ride it out?

All 3 placing pays 18 pts
18 pts for Samcro and CoC (although that is an insiginicant amount for the return I'd get from the double for those in other bets....)

Thoughts?
 
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Personally, I'd keep that bet Kev.

39pts aren't going to shape your festival, a potential 455pts would be brilliant, but over 15,000 is life-changing.
 
Leave that all day kev
 
Easiest decision ever to keep that one rolling Kev!
 
Interested to see how Dunvegan goes tomorrow yo agaist Rapid Escape and blackbow

If he is within 5-10 lengths of a ridden winner then Hollowgraphic should tumble in price
 
Kevloaf said:
Reluctantly taken my 1 pt stake back at 33/1 HOWEVER...

This is the one that I am torn about... e/w lucky 15 (3 pts total)

Samcro 16/1
CoC 7/1
Apple's Shakira 25/1
Stay Humble 33/1


Can cash out for 39 pts now...

If SH is a non runner - 455 pts for the other 3 winning

The payout for all 4 would be 15480 pts

I'm confident and happy on Samcro and Cause of Causes... Apple's Shakira least of the 3 but for 3 pts happy to potentially ride it out?

All 3 placing pays 18 pts
18 pts for Samcro and CoC (although that is an insiginicant amount for the return I'd get from the double for those in other bets....)

Thoughts?
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39pts for 455 is just over 10/1 The trebble. Without stay humble. Not the best value.


If stay humble gets declared for the champion bumper. Samcros likely going to win the ballymore so your cashout goes through the roof. However, I'd be almost certain stay humble won't go for the bumper. And it's not even on there mind.

However entries for the bumper aren't until 28th Feb so aslong as you think samcro wins the Deloitte your cashout isnt going ti go down any time soon without injuries.

It's your call.
 
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On the news today about Stay Humble - I'd definitely let the bet ride Kev. Before this news I was 60/40 towards cashing it out. Although it's still a slim chance he lines up in the bumper - it's a positive update compared to a few days ago and even if it's a very small chance he would line up, like FM says, the payout for all 4 coming in is life changing.

Worst case of not cashing out and they all lose is you lose 39pts
vs
Worst case you cash out and they all win you lose 15441pts

I know CoC and Samcro are key for you so them all losing will be bad and in isolation this bet and those 39pts isn't the end of the world but missing out on that potential return...may never get that position again?

I'd like to think you can stay on top of any news on Stay Humble that comes out between now and March so if news comes out that he bypasses the festival - I reckon you would be in good shape to cash out in time before Bet365 update anyway. The only time that wouldn't apply is if/when Stay Humble does run before March when they suspend the cash out during and after the run - he flops and then the cash out drops. But you would still likely have a good cash out from the other 3.
 
Patrick Mullins in the RP 'Whats the Word'. Goes through the card tomorrow but 14:45 onwards touches on his thoughts on Blackbow and Minella Encore in the bumper

 
Thanks guys, I'll leave it until around 25th Feb and see how the land lies.... odds on to leave it for the moment.

Back to the bumper, I now only have 2 pts invested.

33/1 Hollowgraphic 1 pt
25/1 Blackbow 1 pt

Free bets on:
12/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto
14/1 Good Boy Bobby

Hollowgraphic in some nice multiples and Stay Humble in one afformentioned multiple:devilish:

Pleasing as my net loss on the race last year was 37 pts (8.5 pts NR's and 10.5 pts on Western Ryder). 4 pts the year before and in 2015 I only had free bets on :highly_amused: Went back to the drawing board rather than try and build a book in this race!
 
Delighted with that, tops of a brilliant day. will keep rhinestone. Which i put on today nrnb to add to my other 2.

Hollow graphic 25/1
Blackbow 25/1
Rhinestone 14/1 nrnb bog
And I'll be going there with confidence
 
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Scooby91 said:
Delighted with that, tops of a brilliant day. will keep rhinestone. Which i put on today nrnb to add to my other 2.

Hollow graphic 25/1
Blackbow 25/1
Rhinestone 14/1 nrnb bog
And I'll be going there with confidence
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Very nice Scooby! Still some 16's around for Rhinestone which I have just taken. Leaves me with:

Stay Humble 33/1 (unlikely)
Blackbow 25/1
Rhinestone 16/1

Missed the prices on Hollowgraphic so although i'd like him covered, the price is too short for me now.
Doubt i'll have another bet in this race now
 
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jono said:
Very nice Scooby! Still some 16's around for Rhinestone which I have just taken. Leaves me with:

Stay Humble 33/1
Blackbow 25/1
Rhinestone 16/1

Missed the prices on Hollowgraphic so although i'd like him covered, the price is too short for me now.
Doubt i'll have another bet in this race now
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Well done yourself. I cashed out stay humble.
I deffinately won't have another bet. Cheltenham couldn't come soon enough . I hope they all make it there. :)
 
Decent performance from Blackbow. At the moment it looks a question as to whether the Mullins brigade can outstay Didtheyleaveuoutto. He looks the one with the change of pace.

Nina Carberry, very frustrating. The horse wasn't good enough but she rides nearly everything for a change of pace, irrespective of the horse's background. Patrick Mullins by far the more tactically astute.
 
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