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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Pendil said:
I was just checking the entries for Saturdays Lanzarote at Kempton and spotted a worrying anomaly.

Gavin Cromwell has 2 entries

Alfa Mix Irish or 136 Saturday rating 140 +4
Ilikedwayurthinkin Irish or 132 Saturday rating 140 +8

Is the English handicapper going to do each horse individually rather than banding

Trying to pick an Irish raider for such as the M. Pipe, Close Bros and The Kim Muir will be even more difficult ante post as we wont know
until 5 day stage what weight to expect or if they qualify
Click to expand...

Hasn't that been the way its been for a while now?
 
Pendil said:
I was just checking the entries for Saturdays Lanzarote at Kempton and spotted a worrying anomaly.

Gavin Cromwell has 2 entries

Alfa Mix Irish or 136 Saturday rating 140 +4
Ilikedwayurthinkin Irish or 132 Saturday rating 140 +8

Is the English handicapper going to do each horse individually rather than banding

Trying to pick an Irish raider for such as the M. Pipe, Close Bros and The Kim Muir will be even more difficult ante post as we wont know
until 5 day stage what weight to expect or if they qualify
Click to expand...

Unfortunately it's the way it has been and obviously will be going forward too.
Some will get more than others.
 
The Tax is variable for each horse and is a real problem for AP bets, especially when there is a ceiling. Gordon usually makes some fake entries to get a steer and I've seen Cromwell do it this season too. Unfortunately most of the other Irish trainers don't bother and it's down to the weights being released.
 
quevega said:
Unfortunately it's the way it has been and obviously will be going forward too.
Some will get more than others.
Click to expand...

I must be wrong then as I thought they were still using bands like 130 or less, 140 or less and 140 plus

Its a right slap in the face for the Irish handicapping system which I wasn't aware of
Thanks guys
 
Douvan to miss Dublin Racing Festival, could still make Cheltenham
 
Pendil said:
I was just checking the entries for Saturdays Lanzarote at Kempton and spotted a worrying anomaly.

Gavin Cromwell has 2 entries

Alfa Mix Irish or 136 Saturday rating 140 +4
Ilikedwayurthinkin Irish or 132 Saturday rating 140 +8

Is the English handicapper going to do each horse individually rather than banding

Trying to pick an Irish raider for such as the M. Pipe, Close Bros and The Kim Muir will be even more difficult ante post as we wont know
until 5 day stage what weight to expect or if they qualify
Click to expand...

The handicapper tends to rate Irish horses individually. I thought it odd that he put up every Ladbroke/Hennessy Chase Irish entry by 1lb apart from 4lb for Cabaret Queen.

Maybe Ilikedwayurthinkin needs to run out of the places on Saturday to drop his UK rating, or they wont come and hope 140 is fine for them to run a big race in the Martin Pipe. Big rise though, and if other Irish runners don’t get that rise, then it could prove tricky for this horse.
 
Upping the Ante Week 10:

GL - Maries Rock
- Al Boum Photo

DJ - Melon (arkle)
- Early Doors (any race)

DJ a little late on the ED bet only getting 14s :devilish:
 
darlojim said:
Upping the Ante Week 10:

GL - Maries Rock
- Al Boum Photo

DJ - Melon (arkle)
- Early Doors (any race)

DJ a little late on the ED bet only getting 14s :devilish:
Click to expand...

What was it that guys on here got? I know a few members mentioned the 33s for The NH Chase. Was any race 20s?

Melon aswell in Arkle think a few of us on at bigger prices.
 
Big Bucks said:
What was it that guys on here got? I know a few members mentioned the 33s for The NH Chase. Was any race 20s?

Melon aswell in Arkle think a few of us on at bigger prices.
Click to expand...

Yeh think it was at least 20s on the any race price..

Do enjoy the upping the ante half hour though even though it wont get you rich following them.
 
I'm assuming the racing post ante post podcasts will start tomorrow. Will they wheel Segal out......I kind of hope they do!:devilish:
 
darlojim said:
Upping the Ante Week 10:

GL - Maries Rock
- Al Boum Photo

DJ - Melon (arkle)
- Early Doors (any race)

DJ a little late on the ED bet only getting 14s :devilish:
Click to expand...

In my opinion, Al Boum Photo is a poor ante post bet right now, because you might as well wait - his price will not change at all as we know he's now going straight there again.

He may well end up the same price NRNB that he is now...



but, people can follow Gavin Lynch all they like, I'll do better though :devilish:
 
Has someone got the entry dates again please?
Can’t remember what thread it was posted in.
 
Kevloaf said:
but, people can follow Gavin Lynch all they like, I'll do better though :devilish:
Click to expand...

He picks 35 horses for the week though Kev, you pick 35 a day :devilish:
 
ryanh97 said:
He picks 35 horses for the week though Kev, you pick 35 a day :devilish:
Click to expand...

:highly_amused:

I've got 35 horses backed for the Tuesday so far, what a guess.





As a great man once said, judge me by my results.




I hate him :mad-new: Get's paid to do something I have to do for free :p and I take it you're backing yourself to out-do me and Gavin Lynch? ;)




2 stages to Cheltenham.

1. Beat the SP
2. Find the winners

Balancing act :)
 
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Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused:

I've got 35 horses backed for the Tuesday so far, what a guess.





As a great man once said, judge me by my results.




I hate him :mad-new: Get's paid to do something I have to do for free :p and I take it you're backing yourself to out-do me and Gavin Lynch? ;)




2 stages to Cheltenham.

1. Beat the SP
2. Find the winners

Balancing act :)
Click to expand...

I do quite enjoy watching Lynch to be fair, he is behind many on here most of the time but can only pick a horse or two a week.

In terms of there being 2 stages to Cheltenham and the first step being beating the SP - that's only any use if they win or place. We don't like value losers around here :devilish:
 
ryanh97 said:
I do quite enjoy watching Lynch to be fair, he is behind many on here most of the time but can only pick a horse or two a week.

In terms of there being 2 stages to Cheltenham and the first step being beating the SP - that's only any use if they win or place. We don't like value losers around here :devilish:
Click to expand...

That's the balancing act :p

Have I taught you nothing .... less time on spreadsheets, more time reading Kevloaf's excellent ante post analysis



He can definitely pick more than two if he wants.... I wondewr if he backs more than what he puts up... must do? As he surely doens't wait for a specific time in case the price goes.... he's not better than us Ryan, get over your man crush :p
 
Kevloaf said:
That's the balancing act :p

Have I taught you nothing .... less time on spreadsheets, more time reading Kevloaf's excellent ante post analysis



He can definitely pick more than two if he wants.... I wondewr if he backs more than what he puts up... must do? As he surely doens't wait for a specific time in case the price goes.... he's not better than us Ryan, get over your man crush :p
Click to expand...

You need to do some spreadsheets after the festival Kev analysing your winners and losers. Some nice analysis on beating the SP!

He must do, can't only back those I'd imagine, he comes across like the type of guy who would have a bet on anything.
 
ryanh97 said:
You need to do some spreadsheets after the festival Kev analysing your winners and losers. Some nice analysis on beating the SP!

He must do, can't only back those I'd imagine, he comes across like the type of guy who would have a bet on anything.
Click to expand...

The data is already in a spreadsheet, the analysing of it comes in the form of Return on Investment and Profit.


We don't like value losers.... Saint Calvados 100/1 :beaten: :hopelessness:

but I beat the SP on all 5 runners if you remember (Footpad 25/1, Petit Mouchoir 16/1, Brain Power 20/1 and Robinshill 100/1)



I'd struggle to see you come up with an arguement against it being a viable method to pursue?



It's not for everyone, when I started it was by trying to have 1 bet in each race.... that's loads harder, and therefore in my opinion not as profitable.


I still fancy my chances of making a profit for the week though if I did do that again, but I wouldn't enjoy the season anywhere near as much!
 
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