Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[billymag]

Can anyone remember a horse win the King George then not go for the gold cup rather than a different target at the Chelt fest, surely they have to go GC if he won KG?

 

[Kevloaf]

Can anyone remember a horse win the King George then not go for the gold cup rather than a different target at the Chelt fest, surely they have to go GC if he won KG?

Vautour, nearly fits the bill

I personally feel people are being way too dismissive about the prospect.... it is so obvious that they would AT VERY LEAST consider it... therefore the very bullish comments about where he will run are a little misguided

 

[Quevega]

Vautour, nearly fits the bill

I personally feel people are being way too dismissive about the prospect.... it is so obvious that they would AT VERY LEAST consider it... therefore the very bullish comments about where he will run are a little misguided

They will definitely consider it if the season goes to plan.
But he'll be ten yrs old and it would be a mistake to try, unless he looks absolutely brilliant in the KG.
A 10 yr old bidding to win the Queen Mother for third time and at cheltenham for the fifth time would be very tempting.
Depends on a lot of stuff really doesn't it.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, he's much more likely to run in the QMCC - as he is far from certain to win the King George (even though I'll back him to do so)

 

[billymag]

Stop it Kev!!!!!! lol That was a dark day with Vautour lol

 

[jono]

How I see the Altior situation right now -*

Absolutely the Gold Cup will be in the back of their minds to some extent. You don't line up in a KG, the biggest British trial for the GC and not considor that that could be the outcome come March. *

But...

I think Altior will need to win the KG as authoritively as Kauto Star did in 2006 (his first) for them to make that call on going for the Gold Cup in December. Kauto had of course a few weeks before that won the Tingle Creek (beating the subsequent Champion Chase winner) so connections could have quite easily dropped him back to 2 miles in March but instead went for the Gold Cup route. One key difference there though is the Kauto has won the Betfair Chase so had already proved his ability over 3miles. That's the only other occasion i can recall where you've had a horse who had a real crossroads come the King George where the 2 mile race was at their mercy or go for the unknown trip of 3m2.which other horse could have gone back down to 2miles and win? I loved Vautour but can't honestly say him anymore. So it's a very unique scenario.

Can Altior win the KG. Yes.
Can he win it in such a way to force their hand. Most likely not imo.
And no type of win could eliminate the doubts to staying 3m2 in Cheltenham.

Personally I just can't really see a realistic situation where connections go for the a bold Thistlecrack or Coneygree style 'go for it' approach when you have such a sweet prize waiting for them over 2 miles. And though he won't dictate Altior, both trainer and jockey having Santini will come into play in some form.

And then what do you do with Altior afterwards even if victorious? On one hand he'll surely have had a hard race...do you let him recover and be fresh for the GC? As Henderson likes to do with his horses (Long Run, Bob's Worth, Might Bite) Or do you test him again? That would surely be a consideration? The Newbury meeting in Feb to be fair is ideal for either going back to the Game Spirit or go for the Denman Chase. Would the Denman Chase tell us any extra though? Opposition he'd have likely have faced in the KG already? Then Santini would be ideal for it, would they take eachother on? Lots of questions!

I think the timing of the KG has just worked out perfectly. Where he is in his career, how he runs, the stable having an 'opening' in the race. It's a perfect time for a free shot. ANY defeat and he goes back to the tried and tested 2 mile division. Otherwise he might just have added a King George to his CV along the way but he'll be lining up on Ladies Day.

At least in regards to singles - I'll most likely take the approach of waiting until the KG run to back Altior. From all the above I still think a win in it doesn't send him to the GC so I'll take the hopefully bigger price as everyone would assume the GC. Could be some very brief wild overreaction. A narrow loss straight after could still have the bookies assuming the same or at least holding his price. A bomb out in the race would have all roads leading to 2 miles but such a performance surely couldn't be cut drastically. So I'm happy to wait it out...

 

[somer1]

Even if Altior wins the KG cant see him going GC.Kempton easy 3m where Cheltenham hard 3m and a hill.Just cant ave him.

 

[archie]

I don't see Altior winning either the KG or the CC. He's been deteriorating since his first CC and simply hasn't performed to a 175 standard since then although it's not his fault that the 2 mile chasers haven't been up to much.

The younger generation look to have him covered in the KG and Chacun Pour Soi is a special horse who, if he stays fit, will be hard to beat next March.

 

[Outlaw]

I'd be holding back on the "Chacun" is special horse for now yes what he did lto was super impressive but beating Defi over 2 miles and the arkle winner who whilst easily winning the arkle never looked a g1 horse and wouldn't of been anywhere near had LE Rich or Cilaos rocked up.
Some sensible comments recording Altior general performances not being the 175 and above but that's just him he pulls out what he needs just look at him vs UDS in the Tingle.

Add in Mullins post race comments on Chacun-"
I haven't thought about what distance he might want but I didn't look on him as a Champion Chase horse. He'll gallop and he'll stay all day, and soft ground would be no problem to him - Willie Mullins, trainer"

Won't even know where he goes to decs next march with Willie

 

[Kautostar]

I’d want 5/1 on chacun turning up at Cheltenham, the horse is clearly made of glass by his 3 runs in the last 3 years

 

[jono]

If you take the 175 rating for Altior as a true and accurate figure then no doubt it's near on impossible for him to improve on that now at his age going forward. Certainly over 2 miles. I personally feel it was a conservative figure that has slightly undervalued his level. On ratings CPS only has 8lbs of improvement to find which I have no doubt he could do (after just 2 runs with Willie) but for me the gap between the pair right now is much wider than 8lbs and 2pts (even factoring in other targets etc)

Archie - where would you yourself like to see Kemboy leading up to the GC? King George would look to be an ideal suit no?

 

[Kevloaf]

Even if Altior wins the KG cant see him going GC.Kempton easy 3m where Cheltenham hard 3m and a hill.Just cant ave him.

The first line there is just so hard to understand.



You can't see Altior going for the Gold Cup.... so even if he wins the King George, going away,you can't see it? -

His oh so famous strong final furlong (that he has shown in literally every race) if he does that in the King George, so say he jumps the last level with Cyrname, then powers away for a 4L win... you can't have that they'd assume he'd stay further.



Not wanting to single you out as I know plenty share that view.... but it's just a nonsense thing to say.

 

[Kevloaf]

This percieved wisdom that Altior won't get the Gold Cup trip.... what is that based on?


It seems to be taken as red that he definitely will stay further than 2 miles.... but then equally nobody thinks he can get the Gold Cup test?

Now I'm assuming that's because the vast, overwhelming majority of horses that are fast/good enough to win a 2 mile Champion Chase, wouldn't stay.... BUT, we don't know (and ratings certainly don't suggest) that Altior is an all-time great 2 miler. Don't get me wrong, I know he is... because of what he's done - but does it take a huge leap to suggest he's not beaten any top class 2 milers on their day and therefore has been 'getting away with it' to a certain extent'. A little unfair on Min perhaps, but we all know Min isn't top class, he's just good (and when he wins the Ryanair we'll all realise he was actually not a 2 miler either )

I am of the opinion Kauto Star would have won each of the renewals Altior won (of the QMCC) and I'm very much hoping Altior steps up in trip and that absolutely infamous powering up the hill isn't just "his thing" over 2 miles. I can't think of a horse over 2 miles that's ever had the 'stamina' he has.... in my opinion it's much more likely that he's actually a top class stayer, that's classy enough to win over 2 miles.... than be a world class 2 miler who is the only horse in living memory that's actually just a pure stayer at 2 miles only.


That just seems too unlikely, no?

 

[jono]

This percieved wisdom that Altior won't get the Gold Cup trip.... what is that based on?...

Good post Kev.

Sizing John comes to mind as the last 2 miler (first 9 races never raced beyond 2 miles) who then went onto race and actually win the Gold Cup in 2017. He obviously stepped up in trip at 7 years old so at a much earlier stage in his career but at the start of 2017 I don't think anyone would have foreseen him winning the GC no? He had still yet to race beyond 2m4 until February that year but he ended the season with a 3 race streak where he took in the Gold Cups at Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Punchestown proving without doubt he was and is a stayer at best. That season he went from:

2m
2m4
3m
3m2

Bar the first outing over 2miles, a trip sequence that Altior (if ending up in the GC) would most likely take. Each time having the trip as a question mark. You couldn't have watched back Sizing John's form over 2 miles and say he was crying out for further could you? You certainly wouldn't have at Aintree (a year before his GC win) when his first try over 2m4 resulted in a 24L third behind Arzal and L'ami Serge? I 100% didn't on either occasion.

One horse doing it doesn't mean another will but like Kev says Altior actually has shown for plenty of time now that he looks like a step up will be ideal and perhaps what he's always wanted. How much of a step up who knows and that's the question. And to your opening question - there's actually nothing he's shown that would suggest he wouldn't. He's kind of been the opposite of what a lot of the best 2 milers were. People often bring up the Sprinter vs Altior debate. Sprinter would have been clear from Altior long before he could do his famous powering up the hill. He doesn't race keen like many do either.
2m4 will certainly be no bother. Then it's an unknown. As it was with SJ. As 3m2 is for almost all horses prior to running in the race. Even an RSA winner can't be guaranteed to see out the extra furlongs. All we know is the plan is to let him prove himself over 3 miles. Again just because SJ did it has zero relevance to Altior but it does show that a 2miler can take the jump and actually 'become' an out and out stayer in a very short space of time - SJ went from being Douvan's bridesmaid (once again) in December 2017 over 2 miles to those 3 Spring Gold Cups in the space of 4 months. And Altior is light years ahead of what SJ was on their 2 mile form whose racecourse evidence actually suggests a step up will suit for a good while.

Unless you think Altior is on the downgrade as a horse generally (therefore dismissing him from anything) I do find it very hard to dismiss Altior in the King George and even Gold Cup. For me he's an absolute player in the King George. And if he wins that he'd have to be even in a hot looking Gold Cup. Though (without going over old ground) I just don't think it'll happen as unlike the SJ case and others prior - they didn't have such a tempting prize waiting for them back at 2 miles to revert too. I can't wait to see Altior tackle Kempton at Christmas and happy to wait until then before forming an opinion on the horse (in regards to antepost) where we'll have learnt so much more about him

 

[Quevega]

I’ve said on here a few times.
I believe most of the good or great horses can be competitive over all trips.
I don’t personally doubt that there’s a reasonable chance Altior will compete in the Gold cup.
But there’s more pointing towards the Champion Chase at the minute.
We all know they like to win. And at the moment he dominates that division.
I think he needs to look improved for the trip and something also needs to come out in the 2 mile category for the Gold cup to be seriously considered. And then there’s the competition nearer the day, the ground etc etc.
Doubting he’ll get the trip is probably a mistake.
But history is there for the taking and the 2 mile is likely to be very tempting no matter what happens.

 

[archie]

Archie - where would you yourself like to see Kemboy leading up to the GC? King George would look to be an ideal suit no?

I wouldn't have minded him having a go at the £1M bonus but it looks unlikely that he'll go to Haydock and the talk is of a light campaign up to Cheltenham. Willie's are typically not ready for Down Royal and it's quite possible that he won't run until Christmas unless, like last year, he is just so fresh that he has to run somewhere. You'd have thought that they'll keep the big guns apart and Kempton probably suits him better than it does ABP. However, if ABP isn't going to Leopardstown I'd favour the Lexus.

 

[archie]

If you take the 175 rating for Altior as a true and accurate figure then no doubt it's near on impossible for him to improve on that now at his age going forward. Certainly over 2 miles. I personally feel it was a conservative figure that has slightly undervalued his level.

I'm struggling to see a race since his first Champion Chase where he's run better than 175 and his Cheltenham and Sandown wins were surely below that level. Obviously no-one knows what he might have found if challenged and it can only be a personal opinion that he's on the downgrade.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've kept it simple and backed Altior (4's) and CPS (12's), both on Bet365 ready with the Cashout option should it be needed.

Way I see it I'll either have a 4 time winning Cheltenham Festival winner and current highest rated chaser @ 4's and/or the potential up and coming star that is CPS @ 12's. I can't see anything else coming out of left field.

IF Altior was to absolutely destroy the King George field then I'd have to be looking at cashing him out, but ultimately I do wonder if he'll even make the KG let alone the GC.

I understand the view point that he needs to step up in trip, but how many chances do you get at completing a hat-trick of QMCC's in your life?

On breeding I wouldn't even consider a step up to 3m personally.

 

[archie]

Way I see it I'll either have a 4 time winning Cheltenham Festival winner and current highest rated chaser @ 4's

3rd highest rated currently.

Cash out option very sensible.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

3rd highest rated currently.

Cash out option very sensible.

Ah yeah, was looking at old Timeform ratings :disgust: