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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

taylorch1990 said:
I haven't backed her yet but I've been tempted to have a little punt on Honeysuckle for the Champion Hurdle at 50s. I think the 2 mile hurdlers might not be the best about, with last year's winner missing Buveur Dair maybe on the decline and Klassical Dream unproven in open company so far. Also the Mares has the potential to look more competitive than ever with Laurina, Benie, Roksana and Apples Jade.
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Im not sure id subscribe to Buveur Dair on the decline, last run was a G1 win at the Punchestown Festival and the form book described it as comfortable, I note you said maybe on the decline though lol.
 
billymag said:
Im not sure id subscribe to Buveur Dair on the decline, last run was a G1 win at the Punchestown Festival and the form book described it as comfortable, I note you said maybe on the decline though lol.
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Buveur may well still be good enough but he’s certainly not improving at 8. Like many, I’m all over KD but you’re right taylorch he still has to prove it... there are worse 50s pokes IMO, interesting shout.
 
taylorch1990 said:
I haven't backed her yet but I've been tempted to have a little punt on Honeysuckle for the Champion Hurdle at 50s. I think the 2 mile hurdlers might not be the best about, with last year's winner missing Buveur Dair maybe on the decline and Klassical Dream unproven in open company so far. Also the Mares has the potential to look more competitive than ever with Laurina, Benie, Roksana and Apples Jade.
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I'll deffo have a saver on her for the Champion as she is overpriced on what she's done but I reckon it'll come a year too early and that the Mares is the race for her this season.
 
Backed Ard Abhainn in the last at Gowran tomorrow and for the Mares Novice Hurdle at 40/1.

The form of her Punchestown bumper win is working out nicely & connections seem to be very sweet on her future. Gordon mentioned starting her off in a listed bumper before going over hurdles in his recent stable tour.
 
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Morley Street said:
Buveur may well still be good enough but he’s certainly not improving at 8. Like many, I’m all over KD but you’re right taylorch he still has to prove it... there are worse 50s pokes IMO, interesting shout.
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I think we can all accept the BD isnt going to improve his figures over 2miles, but think its far from certain that he is on the decline, in fact id rate him as one of the best bets of the festival at his current price. Klassical Dreams price looks incredibly short and in a match bet I think most would price BD fav, I dont see how you couldnt.
 
billymag said:
I think we can all accept the BD isnt going to improve his figures over 2miles, but think its far from certain that he is on the decline, in fact id rate him as one of the best bets of the festival at his current price. Klassical Dreams price looks incredibly short and in a match bet I think most would price BD fav, I dont see how you couldnt.
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Yeah, in a match bet running today, I wouldn’t argue, but I’d be disappointed if KD didn’t progress sufficiently throughout the season to change my view come March. I’m not knocking BD Billy just personally think his price is about right at the mo.
 
Morley Street said:
Yeah, in a match bet running today, I wouldn’t argue, but I’d be disappointed if KD didn’t progress sufficiently throughout the season to change my view come March. I’m not knocking BD Billy just personally think his price is about right at the mo.
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Fair enough pal wish u luck. Personally have bd as one of the best antepost prices for festival
 
Morley Street said:
Yeah, in a match bet running today, I wouldn’t argue, but I’d be disappointed if KD didn’t progress sufficiently throughout the season to change my view come March. I’m not knocking BD Billy just personally think his price is about right at the mo.
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I agree. Think we have seen the best of BD. He is on the decline and will find 2 or 3 too good for him.
 
Being a forum full of Cheltenham Festival fans, it would be normal for us to have fondness for prior year Festival winners, because we have backed them when they won, or if we didn’t, we think that a repeat of a win is the first place to look.

Looking back at March 2019 Festival results, how many
a) won for the second year running? or
b) at a Cheltenham Festival prior to that.



The answer is

a) 2 - Altior 4/11 fav, and Tiger Roll 5/4 fav.

b) the two above plus Defi Du Seuil 3/1 fav.

I’m sure the latter would have been a bigger price at the start of the season, though maybe an Any Festival Race bet would have been the sensible option in October 2018 given the number of Hurdle or Chase options that we could have considered for him back then.

Slim pickings in reality.
 
Hamptonfox said:
Being a forum full of Cheltenham Festival fans, it would be normal for us to have fondness for prior year Festival winners, because we have backed them when they won, or if we didn’t, we think that a repeat of a win is the first place to look.

Looking back at March 2019 Festival results, how many
a) won for the second year running? or
b) at a Cheltenham Festival prior to that.



The answer is

a) 2 - Altior 4/11 fav, and Tiger Roll 5/4 fav.

b) the two above plus Defi Du Seuil 3/1 fav.

I’m sure the latter would have been a bigger price at the start of the season, though maybe an Any Festival Race bet would have been the sensible option in October 2018 given the number of Hurdle or Chase options that we could have considered for him back then.

Slim pickings in reality.
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Slim pickings last year but time and again festival form stands the test of time.
 
First one up for the season today, Double: La Bague Au Roi (King George) & Thomas Darby (JLT), 390/1. Think the Kempton track will play into the mare’s hands and Thomas Darby impressed me a lot in the Supreme, decent trainer in Olly Murphy who did well with v.few runners at this year’s Festival & has already said they could step him up as others have mentioned on here already rather than Arkle I’m on.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
COD wasn’t it you who did some historical analysis on this last season confirming that prior Festival form was a very good place to start?
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Not sure I can take credit for it, I think it may have been someone else, although I can't remember everything I post as I waffle a lot too :highly_amused::highly_amused:

I do remember putting Defi up at 50's and forgetting to back him though after being lightly ridiculed on here :triumphant:
 
MadeinJapan said:
First one up for the season today, Double: La Bague Au Roi (King George) & Thomas Darby (JLT), 390/1. Think the Kempton track will play into the mare’s hands and Thomas Darby impressed me a lot in the Supreme, decent trainer in Olly Murphy who did well with v.few runners at this year’s Festival & has already said they could step him up as others have mentioned on here already rather than Arkle I’m on.
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With you all the way on LBAR in the KG. Think she is an incredible ew bet at 16's. Unbeaten at Kempton beating top novices Lostintranslation and Santini last Xmas and also gets that rediculously generous Mares allowance. She has a fantastic chance. Stuck £50 Ew on her so I hope we are both lucky!!
 
Not sure what they have in mind for the story teller. But that was race course schooling from Russel there, he was asked for absolutely zero, dropped out the back. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get questioned, as he was travelling within himself.
 
Scooby91 said:
Not sure what they have in mind for the story teller. But that was race course schooling from Russel there, he was asked for absolutely zero, dropped out the back. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get questioned, as he was travelling within himself.
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...Elliott mentioned the Grand National as a target but not sure how that strategy would relate to this performance. I looked for a price a few days ago but I couldn’t see it in the betting.
 
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