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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Innoko said:
Did the same this morning, but would only let me have £18! :grumpy:
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Think it will more likely be Supreme if good enough, so have had 1pt on the 40's for that and 4pts 'any race'!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Think it will more likely be Supreme if good enough, so have had 1pt on the 40's for that and 4pts 'any race'!
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Is PYM still being aimed at the Supreme?

No, he wouldn’t be a Supreme horse and in my opinion he’ll get further so if it is anything the Ballymore will be more likely, but it’s a big if. He schooled this morning and jumped very well. I hope to have him out in the next few weeks.

Taken from the NH Unibet Blog last season...
 
Well dug up Innoko.

You can get 45/1 for the Ballymore with Ladbrokes (40/1 boosted)

There is always that debate about a Supreme horse needing to stay bettter than a Ballymore horse though, with it being such a stiff 2m - I haven't backed Pym for anything yet but he was in One Jump Ahead last season 17/18 and they thought he was Ballymore horse in that...
 
Added a few over the last week or so...

Supreme: Blackbow 25/1
Ballymore: Pym 45/1 e/w
Novice Mares: Daphne Du Clos 17.5/1
Any Race: Vision Des Flos 22/1

A lot of us seem quite keen on a few of these hope we’re right, quite happy with my book at present will probably sit tight now for a while and enjoy some good seasonal debuts.
 
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The first at Chepstow tomorrow looks an interesting race, in addition to Pym (had a point at 45s for the Ballymore) there is Deyrann de Carjac (King) who has come in for some early support and one I am hovering over is Umndeni (Hobbs) full brother to Vision De Flos and winner of a bumper at Warwick earlier this year.

In OJA it says 'he has reportedly done well over the summer and he will be campaigned in two mile novice hudles this season.' He is also one of the few of the less well known horses to be included in both Jumpers to follow and One Jump Ahead as a top prospect for the season. I'd like him in the book before the off tomorrow, assuming there is reasonable support for him in the Chepstow race. Based on the above comments will likley have around couple of points at 40/1 for the Supreme over the 27s any race with Hills.
 
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SeanRock said:
The any race market is definitely the way to go alright! Especially with very little difference in the prices quoted for the specifics. 22/1 will Hills will hopefully look good value on Saturday evening.
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Gone !- 8-1 now sean.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
The first at Chepstow tomorrow looks an interesting race, in addition to Pym (had a point at 45s for the Ballymore) there is Deyrann de Carjac (King) who has come in for some early support and one I am hovering over is Umndeni (Hobbs) full brother to Vision De Flos and winner of a bumper at Warwick earlier this year.

In OJA it says 'he has reportedly done well over the summer and he will be campaigned in two mile novice hudles this season.' He is also one of the few of the less well known horses to be included in both Jumpers to follow and One Jump Ahead as a top prospect for the season. I'd like him in the book before the off tomorrow, assuming there is reasonable support for him in the Chepstow race. Based on the above comments will likley have around couple of points at 40/1 for the Supreme over the 27s any race with Hills.
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Enjoyed the race and was impressed with Pym as likely beat a couple of half decent horses. Was really disappointed with Umdeni's jumping appeared to be losing ground at every hurdle. Will need some serious improvement in that department in order to fulfill the promise. Interesting that Henderson mentioned before the race that Pym's jumping was in good order, good bit of info that as it is a really important part of the game
 
Yeah re-read a couple of bits from OJA after the race. Nice to hear the horses in behind were well thought of.
 
I've promised myself I won't have bets like these :highly_amused:

A ridiculously speculative trixie on Mullins' novice hurdlers

11465/1

Annamix 20/1 (Supreme)
Blackbow 25/1 (Ballymore)
Carefully Selected 20/1 (Albert Bartlett)

All best price with 365 so wouldn't place it anywhere else.
 
I’ve been making a list of positions I want to gain on horses before they shorten, but hoping to get away with waiting for free bets to get them in.

From my initial list I have the following left:
Sam Spinner Stayers - 33/1 0.5U e/w
Ciloas Emery Arkle or any race - 2U
Daphne Du clos - Mares Novice Novice

After reading Riccis comments on Douvan and the realisation he will only be 9 at the festival I like the 8s for any race, I think he will he will go to the Ryanair but I’ve only seen 10s for that so happy to lose 2 points for the back up.
Also I’d appreciate it if everyone could stop backing Annamix as I want in before the price goes, but off on holiday in two weeks so need to wait for November
 
Kevloaf said:
I've promised myself I won't have bets like these :highly_amused:

A ridiculously speculative trixie on Mullins' novice hurdlers

11465/1

Annamix 20/1 (Supreme)
Blackbow 25/1 (Ballymore)
Carefully Selected 20/1 (Albert Bartlett)

All best price with 365 so wouldn't place it anywhere else.
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Similar to me Kev as per page 89 on this thread, but I've gone Hollowgraphic instead of Blackbow.
 
Stepped up the ante post the weekend.

4 pts Annamix 20/1 Supreme
2 pts Commander Of Fleet 16/1 Ballymore
1 pt Pym 33/1 Ballymore
2 pts Dortmund Park 33/1 4m
2 pts Melon 8/1 Arkle and Samcro 3/1 Champion
2 pts Energumene 50/1 Bumper

The rest were placed last few weeks with Free bets
1 pt fb Annamix 20/1 Supreme, Altior 6/4 QMCC, Penhill 6/1 Stayers, Samcro 7/1 Champion Hurdle just over 29k
1 pt fb Melon 8/1 Arkle, BD 3/1 Champion, Annamix 20/1 Supreme just over 7.5k
1 pt fb Melon 8/1 Arkle, Samcro 8/1 RSA, Laurina 5/2 Mares, Altior 7/4 QMCC just under 8k
 
Always like to be aware of what shall we call it 'proper early antepost Festival gambles', likely by connections.

Is anyone aware of any other horses apart from Kalashnikov being properly backed for the Arkle, Santini for the RSA and I guess Samcro for the Champion Hurdle being backed for Cheltenham before being seen out this season?

This time last year I think we just had Samcro in the Ballymore and Annamix in the Supreme. I'm not including the latter this year as the price drop over the last couple of days was soley instigated by Ricci's declaration on national TV.
 
How do you define 'properly backed'?
 
haha...fair point as I appreciate it doesn't take much to move a price, but as an indicator we could just say been cut across the board by all leading bookmakers. For reference:

Kalshnikov 14s into 8s
Santnini 12 into 8s
Samcro 8s into 4s
 
One £2m bet a week

No.1

Lalor @ 34.00 Arkle
Hollowgraphic @ 34.00 BM
Sam Spinner @ 21.00 ST
Kemboy @ 51.00 GC
Santini @ 8.00 RSA
Lucky 31, 31 bets * £0.50 E/W £2mill
 
Bookies have the backbone of a slug (plus many other characteristics). Those cuts are probably just a few hundred based on trainer comments. I'd have thought Betfair turnover might be a better indicator.
 
archie said:
Bookies have the backbone of a slug (plus many other characteristics). Those cuts are probably just a few hundred based on trainer comments. I'd have thought Betfair turnover might be a better indicator.
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Fair points Archie. I know there has been money queuing up on Betfair at the biggest highstreet bookie price available for both Kalshnikov and Santini since their initial price cut.

The Kalshnikov Arkle price in particular dropped very quickly over a couple of days, which makes me think that one was more than just trainer comments as at that stage nothing was made public about what Kalashnikov's likely destination might be.
 
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