I've had so many thoughts regarding bets for the festival already, which is ridiculous, as I haven't seen one horse take to the track that is in my current portfolio yet.
I'm just going to leave a few thoughts, based mostly on market activity but also gut instinct at this present time, here. I have not backed a load yet, however I am ahead of where I was last year in terms of stakes.
My main focus has been the recent market move on Samcro for the Champion Hurdle, how could it not be, but the stuff that interests me more is the knock on effect this has on other horses, do targets change based on one horse? Personally I don't think so, but surely it must cross some trainers minds?
So, Melon, a horse we probably still haven't seen the best of yet, surely goes chasing this season? Couldn't beat Buveur D'air, and now potentially has Samcro to take on as well, not forgetting Summerville Boy of course, who should not be discounted. IF he goes chasing, surely it is then the Arkle. A horse not too dissimilar to Footpad really, and bar the Triumph/Supreme difference, have taken the same 2 years hurdling, that now could be the time to switch discipline?
Laurina, my star, I think she is a future Champion Hurdle winner (assuming she does not go chasing), there, I said it! IF Melon goes for the Arkle then Laurina takes the Mares' as she likes. Benie Des Dieux has already been touted as going chasing again, and Apple's Jade, well she has it all to prove again after a somewhat low key 2018 (there were excuses, mind). Limini has the potential to return, but has been running on the flat in recent weeks/months and unsure a long season is what she wants.
I don't have too many thoughts regarding any novice hurdles just yet, though excited to see Commander Of Fleet, Danny Kirwan, Brewin'upastorm, Annamix and Breaken to name but a few.
I think Colin Tizzard has the potential horses to have a very solid Cheltenham Festival. His Novice Chase team looks strong. A favoured one of mine being Vision Des Flos, he also has Slate House (I think a few have brought him up in the Arkle thread), Lostintranslation & Kilbricken Storm (hope he goes down the NH Chase route), I'd be very surprised should he not at least find himself a couple of solid placed efforts and possibly a winner or 2 amongst them. Of course, aside from the novices he also has last seasons Gold Cup winner, Native River to complete what could potentially be successful team for the festival.
The Novice Chase division itself is very exciting, even if Samcro does stick to hurdles. My only concern with it is the Arkle already looks quite an underwhelming bunch, in a race that will only likely field 5 or 6 runners as seems to be the case in recent times. My case for Melon above is also based on lack of runners, with bookmakers paying 3 places until the day, when, like season we end up with just the 2 places being paid. I actually think the race I am currently looking forward to the most in the Novice Chase division is the RSA. I think it looks a solid bunch already and usually does not disappoint. Gigginstown have a whole host they could chuck at it, Cracking Smart, Champagne Classic, Blow By Blow & Delta Work are 4 of the more likely runners. Santini for Nicky Henderson is obviously really well thought of and the betting suggests that too. Topofthegame for Paul Nicholls could also come into his own now going chasing, not to mention numerous other horses that could potentially take to this race. One thing I am not convinced of is Next Destination heading here, even though he looked as though he needed 3 miles at Cheltenham.
The JLT will be wide open should Samcro not turn up, I don't have a strong opinion on this one yet though as mentioned previously, potentially one of the Tizzard horses could spring up here, as to which one is anyone's guess.
I could ramble on all day, but should probably get on with some work, so will leave it there for now, please find holes in any of what I have wrote, it's all about opinions and discussion, so I am certainly open for that.
Oh, and I wasn't sure where to post this so please move to the correct thread if a problem being in this one
