Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Been chipping away at this 22/1 Hills price boost for Commander of Fleet in the Ballymore. I agree with others about how it's normally good to play the any race market but 13s versus 22s is just too tempting. I know I'm influenced by what happened with Samcro last season but can see them following a very similar plan. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if at some point in the next few weeks there won't be a similar (likely stable) gamble on CoF to the win the Ballymore. Samcro started that day at 16s and was best priced 10s by the end of it and I think 8s by the time of his first race. Quite possible I'd miss it while at work so 22s does make some appeal now.

Comments made by Jamie Codd in Jumpers to Follow:

'I sat on him up in Gordon's one day and he gave me a savage feel and he could just be top class. He's got the size and scope, and a great travelling speed so he could be very, very good. Being only 4 they could run him in another bumper, but he's won a point to point and is a future chaser, so Gigginstown might want to get him straight over hurdles. The Fame and Glory stock seem to be very nice and this lad looks like he could go all the way.

While part of me says surely lightning won't strike two years in a row it has for Mullins in the Supreme before so maybe it could be Gordon's turn in the Ballymore. Would be interested to know what others think?

22s now gone, was nice while it lasted

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

22s now gone, was nice while it lasted

The Land Rover Goffs bumper has thrown up some top class horses in the past (Simonsig, Petit Mouchoir). It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was another. Every time I watch that bumper performance it impresses me more.

 

[thistlecracker]

Anyone know where the best price for COF for Ballymore is now?

 

[jono]

Anyone know where the best price for COF for Ballymore is now?

I'd be all over the 16/1 with Bet365 now that the WH price has gone if I were to back him now.
Joint highest price and you have the potential for the cashout again where he is almost a certainty to be shorter as the months go on even if his target was heading towards the Supreme

 

[thistlecracker]

I saw someone mention about the bet365 cash outs this year, I missed the boat on this but someone care to share what happened ? Sounds like bet365 messes up and people got some very nice cashouts... if this is the cash... I assume there isn’t much to tell

 

[jono]

Seemed like a bug / mixup at first but basically they allowed you to cash out any antepost bet from I know the end of December, maybe even earlier. Could actually cash out for profit on a lot of bets and though not applicable in this case, meant you could back some horses prior to a race knowing you could cash out afterwards if it no longer appealed at either the stake or a reduced amount (one example I remember was having 1pt on then cashing out after for 0.6pt back - so only cost me 0.4pt - can't remember the horse mind!)

I'm sceptical that they'll allow the same thing to happen again - either by not offering it or by offering much harsher / less appealing cash outs but if their price is one of / the best it's a nice bonus if it happens again.

CoF would be a prime horse for this as bar not being able to jump, he will shorten for all 3 novice hurdle markets

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Seemed like a bug / mixup at first but basically they allowed you to cash out any antepost bet from I know the end of December, maybe even earlier. Could actually cash out for profit on a lot of bets and though not applicable in this case, meant you could back some horses prior to a race knowing you could cash out afterwards if it no longer appealed at either the stake or a reduced amount (one example I remember was having 1pt on then cashing out after for 0.6pt back - so only cost me 0.4pt - can't remember the horse mind!)

I'm sceptical that they'll allow the same thing to happen again - either by not offering it or by offering much harsher / less appealing cash outs but if their price is one of / the best it's a nice bonus if it happens again.

CoF would be a prime horse for this as bar not being able to jump, he will shorten for all 3 novice hurdle markets

I’m hopeful they will allow it again this year.

As for Epsom and Ascot in June, they let the same cashout thing happen again. So fingers crossed..

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I'd be all over the 16/1 with Bet365 now that the WH price has gone if I were to back him now.
Joint highest price and you have the potential for the cashout again where he is almost a certainty to be shorter as the months go on even if his target was heading towards the Supreme

You’ve convinced me to have a few quid. Wish I’d have seen the 22s but hey ho.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

You’ve convinced me to have a few quid. Wish I’d have seen the 22s but hey ho.

Ended up going for the 13/1 (boosted from 12s) for any race instead


Just in case they decided to go supreme instead

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The Land Rover Goffs bumper has thrown up some top class horses in the past (Simonsig, Petit Mouchoir). It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was another. Every time I watch that bumper performance it impresses me more.

Had been waiting your seal of approval FM as you were the main Samcro drummer last season from a lonnnng way out

 

[Scooby91]

Had been waiting your seal of approval FM as you were the main Samcro drummer last season from a lonnnng way out

Commander of fleet is not one for me. But are people confident he goes hurdling I wouldn't be suprised at all if he had another year in bumpers as is the usual approach apart form petit mouchoir who went to mullins

 

[Kevloaf]

I think a little too much of a comparison is going on with COmmander of Fleet and Samcro.

Samcro was 12/1 any race and is potentially a 'horse of a lifetime' kind of beast... you don't get superstars EVERY year...

I am not against COF at all but he's certainly not part of my ante post thoughts in the same way that Samcro was! He's in a few sure, but I wouldn't be confident enough on his target let alone worrying about him staying in bumpers.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have nothing to back this up but I think it would be unusual for Gigginstown to keep him in bumpers this season. They obviously have plenty of options so I suppose it may depend on what else they have this season. Of the recent winners of that race, all have been contesting maiden hurdles the following season, apart from a couple who suffered injury.

He may not be a star but he certainly made a nice impression on debut. I like him.

 

[archie]

If you look back, most of the Gigginstown runners in the Land Rover at least start the next season in bumpers. Just another notch on the "don't get involved until the proper season starts" totem.

 

[Kevloaf]

If you look back, most of the Gigginstown runners in the Land Rover at least start the next season in bumpers. Just another notch on the "don't get involved until the proper season starts" totem.

Just swept past the 100 pts staked on Cheltenham 2019 on my spreadsheet (103 actually)

Although, this time last year I was on 113 pts - so believe it or not, I'm behind where I was :highly_amused:


Free bets are up though... 64 pts worth so far this year, up on only 25 pts worth last year

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I think a little too much of a comparison is going on with COmmander of Fleet and Samcro.

Samcro was 12/1 any race and is potentially a 'horse of a lifetime' kind of beast... you don't get superstars EVERY year...

I am not against COF at all but he's certainly not part of my ante post thoughts in the same way that Samcro was! He's in a few sure, but I wouldn't be confident enough on his target let alone worrying about him staying in bumpers.

Guilty as charged...haha! To be fair haven't got too involved and still happy enough with a couple of points at 22s and some free bets. Fair points made about him staying in bumpers which Codd had mentioned in that quote. Would only look to go in again if the money comes for him

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just swept past the 100 pts staked on Cheltenham 2019 on my spreadsheet (103 actually)

Although, this time last year I was on 113 pts - so believe it or not, I'm behind where I was :highly_amused:


Free bets are up though... 64 pts worth so far this year, up on only 25 pts worth last year

I need to get smarter with these free bets. I have staked 70 points already but nothing of note in free bets. I feel like I'm missing out:sorrow:

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Guilty as charged...haha! To be fair haven't got too involved and still happy enough with a couple of points at 22s and some free bets. Fair points made about him staying in bumpers which Codd had mentioned in that quote. Would only look to go in again if the money comes for him

Although it didn't spring to mind the other day I think this comment by Paul Ferguson (in his Ante-post preview section) that contributed to me getting involved with CoF for the Ballymore:

"Of this year’s novice hurdlers, a couple I am particularly looking forward to seeing are Commander Of
Fleet and Brewin’upastorm. Starting with the former, who put up a stunning display to win the Goffs
Land Rover Bumper by eight-and-a-half lengths, the son of Fame And Glory could easily attempt to
emulate the same connections’ Samcro and head down the Ballymore route, for which he is currently
a 16-1 shot. Being only four, however, there is probably a chance that he could remain in bumpers
this season; although I would say that is only a very small chance, given the M.O. of Gigginstown
House Stud."

Interesting last sentence which appears to be a little inaccurate based on Scooby's and Archie's comments

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Just swept past the 100 pts staked on Cheltenham 2019 on my spreadsheet (103 actually)

Although, this time last year I was on 113 pts - so believe it or not, I'm behind where I was :highly_amused:
Free bets are up though... 64 pts worth so far this year, up on only 25 pts worth last year

I'm well ahead of last year already, 130 odd points staked, that said, I think I've been 'smarter', if that is a possibility, this time around, and played the 'Any Race' market a LOT more than my usual route of multi's.

 

[Istabraq]

Snared another free bet off Sky yesterday and invested in a Penhill/Santini ew double, 7/1 and 10/1, wil probably look to press this too....