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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Interesting quotes about Samcro this morning. Looks like they are giving the champion hurdle some serious consideration.
The part in bold i found interesting - so even if he was to win a champion hurdle they would send him chasing the following season?
I really really want to see him over a fence (not from a financial point of view).
 
I was wondering why he had drifted out with PP/Betfair for the JLT & RSA this afternoon. Makes sense now. Sounds to me like there leaning towards the Champion Hurdle route.
 
SeanRock said:
I was wondering why he had drifted out with PP/Betfair for the JLT & RSA this afternoon. Makes sense now. Sounds to me like there leaning towards the Champion Hurdle route.
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That’s the impression I got too.

Not great news for anyone like me on him at 5/2 for any race.

But I’ve had a bet today on him at 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle. As I think that’s a good price beating in mind they sound like they will send him hurdling.
 
Looking at the Skybet any race for my weekly free bet

There’s a horse Sebastopol - 12/1, had a look and it’s only raced once, winning a bumper at Ayr in late April

Trained by Tom Lacey, anybody know anything?
 
The decision to be made on Samcro in the next couple of the weeks will of course impact 4 Festival races. Having been of the opinion like others on here that there was a very high chance of him going chasing it does now look that that confidence was a little misplaced. The quotes today suggest it's a 50/50 chance on whether he goes hurdles or jumps, however Paddy Power have priced it up as 4/9 Hurdles 7/4 Chase, which falls in line with how others here have interpreted the quotes.

I'm hoping there will be an early gamble before a decision is made public that will be reflected in the Champion Hurdle market (if indeed that is where he heads), similar to last year when he was backed for the Ballymore, giving a chance to maybe get a reasonable price for that race. For me though I think there may be at least as good value on other horses in the Novice Chasing division. The one that really sticks out to me is Black Op Any race 8.68/1 price boost with Hills (or 11/1 price boost with Ladbrokes for the JLT). Others of most interest (mainy discussed on here already) would be Kalsknikov and Laurina (both 14s) in the Arkle, Kalshnikov (at 28s Ladbrokes price boost) for the JLT and Santini at 13.08 Any race with Hills (most likely the RSA of course). If there is a Samcro gamble on the Champion Hurdle before the decision is announced (PP already into 5s) I expect the prices on those listed above to take a little longer to adjust, and I expect to at least get involved with Black Op. Multiples might also be tempting.
 
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Interesting read there R.C. , thanks for sharing that.
 
I'm been all over SAMCRO for the Arkle in the past month or so, I really thought they'd go that 2m chase route.
Not decision made yet but looking at the comments I'd say it's 60/40 he goes for the Champion Hurdle.
So with this in mind - I'm thinking about taking the plunge on LAURINA in the Arkle.
Willie has said several times she's a proper chasing sort, she is speedy, Fest form and not sure if Willie has anything else for this race jumping out at me, no keen on Getabird.
Thoughts ??
 
PitLad said:
I'm been all over SAMCRO for the Arkle in the past month or so, I really thought they'd go that 2m chase route.
Not decision made yet but looking at the comments I'd say it's 60/40 he goes for the Champion Hurdle.
So with this in mind - I'm thinking about taking the plunge on LAURINA in the Arkle.
Willie has said several times she's a proper chasing sort, she is speedy, Fest form and not sure if Willie has anything else for this race jumping out at me, no keen on Getabird.
Thoughts ??
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I’m on her for the Arkle at 14s already.

The thought of her attacking her fences at speed in an Arkle is racing purity. I can imagine her being aimed at it and going off very short.
 
As is normal for the RP, the decision 'in the next couple of weeks' about Samcro is a complete misrepresentation of the quote from O'Leary.
8/1 on a horse that is '50:50' for the race is effectively 3/1 without taking into account any other reason for it being a non-runner? Absolutely fine for building your own book on a race but madness otherwise 6 months ahead of time.
 
PitLad said:
I'm been all over SAMCRO for the Arkle in the past month or so, I really thought they'd go that 2m chase route.
Not decision made yet but looking at the comments I'd say it's 60/40 he goes for the Champion Hurdle.
So with this in mind - I'm thinking about taking the plunge on LAURINA in the Arkle.
Willie has said several times she's a proper chasing sort, she is speedy, Fest form and not sure if Willie has anything else for this race jumping out at me, no keen on Getabird.
Thoughts ??
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Middle_Of_March said:
I’m on her for the Arkle at 14s already.

The thought of her attacking her fences at speed in an Arkle is racing purity. I can imagine her being aimed at it and going off very short.
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I like her at 14/1 as a small speculative punt but no reason money should be going down about a horse without a certain target this far out unless its a wild price. I have put up a 'related' multiple earlier in this thread (or on the site somwhere!) with Laurina in.

Fair play to billymag once again who never seems to get them wrong in terms of targets. Always take into account what he says, and I will have to hold my hands up and admit I was wrong (again) if they do stick to hurdles.
 
archie said:
As is normal for the RP, the decision 'in the next couple of weeks' about Samcro is a complete misrepresentation of the quote from O'Leary.
8/1 on a horse that is '50:50' for the race is effectively 3/1 without taking into account any other reason for it being a non-runner? Absolutely fine for building your own book on a race but madness otherwise 6 months ahead of time.
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This is a very good point.

and I'd add.... even if they do confirm Samcro as staying over hurdles, how much shorter will he be? He can't go shorter than Buveuir D'air, so you can almost guarentee 4/1 - I'd assume 5 will be readily available for a while too. I don't want my money lost on non runners where the price isn't a big enough discrepancy for it to have been a worthwhile punt.

Samcro may get declared as going hurdling, and the /1 will be long gone - however I think he'll still be 5/1 .... so for the risk of the non runner because of my own fault, I don't think thats a big enough price yet....

He's one for the magical 'free bets' if you can be bothered to have saved them up on him....
 
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Not easy to predict at this stage but who are the possible 2020 Giggs Gold Cup horses ?
They have an obsession with staying chases and will be plotting a route for one/some of theirs at this stage, if it's not Samcro then who ?
Obviously they have a stack of horses but how many of those we've seen are Gold Cup potential in 18 months ?
Delta Work ?
If they don't think any of the current hurdlers have the ability/potential for a Gold Cup then Samcro will, in my opinion, go chasing this season....
 
Istabraq said:
Not easy to predict at this stage but who are the possible 2020 Giggs Gold Cup horses ?
They have an obsession with staying chases and will be plotting a route for one/some of theirs at this stage, if it's not Samcro then who ?
Obviously they have a stack of horses but how many of those we've seen are Gold Cup potential in 18 months ?
Delta Work ?
If they don't think any of the current hurdlers have the ability/potential for a Gold Cup then Samcro will, in my opinion, go chasing this season....
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There aren't any that spring to my mind and that's the reason I still think it's odds on that he goes chasing.
 
Looking at a trixie with a tenner free bet from last night, gonna have Santini for the RSA, Laurina for the Arkle, any other suggestions. Pretty limited for markets as Betway don't have many priced up. Managed to get them to get me a price on Laurina but not many more than that
 
How can Samcro be a gold cup horse as never jumped a fence or run over 3m. Give it time please
 
somer1 said:
How can Samcro be a gold cup horse as never jumped a fence or run over 3m. Give it time please
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Giggs buy every horse to win a Gold Cup or National, they’ve made no secret of that over the years and having won a 3m heavy ground PTP there is no doubt, in my mind, that the eventual target for Samcro is the blue ribband.
Whether that’s after a Champion Hurdle I have no idea, but most top chasers only spend one season hurdling and it’s my hunch he’ll start this season over the big obstacles.
I’ve been wrong plenty of times before though...
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
There aren't any that spring to my mind and that's the reason I still think it's odds on that he goes chasing.
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Blow by Blow, Dortmund Park and Champagne Classic would be the most likely outside of Samcro for 2020
 
ryanh97 said:
Looking at a trixie with a tenner free bet from last night, gonna have Santini for the RSA, Laurina for the Arkle, any other suggestions. Pretty limited for markets as Betway don't have many priced up. Managed to get them to get me a price on Laurina but not many more than that
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Assuming that’s the Betway offer from the United/Spurs game, they don’t let Yankees/Trixies allowed for the free bet. I tried yesterday and they only allowed the treble.
 
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