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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Ive already layed off 75% of my stake on Samcro as I think he's priced up as if NRNB. Happy to lay to get stake back if price looks too short and to me he does.
 
billymag said:
Ive already layed off 75% of my stake on Samcro as I think he's priced up as if NRNB. Happy to lay to get stake back if price looks too short and to me he does.
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Nice one Billy, great call on the target, laying 75% of your stake back looks a shrewd move
 
Potentially interesting novice Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. The season is really beginning to warm up now with the Down Royal cards too.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Potentially interesting novice Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. The season is really beginning to warm up now with the Down Royal cards too.
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What sort of approach do you take with your punting JM?
 
Kevloaf said:
What sort of approach do you take with your punting JM?
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This is just my personal approach and I have nothing against alternative views - to each their own.

I don't really have the time or money to tie up vast sums in ante post bets until March. Because of this I don't like to form a book or have multiple runners in every race. I also like the challenge of being able to pick an ante post winner from a small selection of bets on horses I have chosen to follow. I appreciate that forming a book can almost guarantee a reasonable return, but for me it reduces the amount of judgement required as it comes down to the probability of having mass runners at decent prices and takes the skill out of it for me. I also have to put a lot of time into my job that pays the bills and therefore don't have time to keep on top of everything going on in the racing world whilst monitoring twitter and the exchanges.

I do back some horses as singles when I really have a strong opinion but most of my ante post bets are a bit of fun in chasing the dream of a life changer. I take my shortlist of 2-3 horses for the Novice races (these are the best for ant post prices) and place various combination bets when I have spare money or if my opinion goes stronger for any. I've yet to land the life changer (no surprise) but I like to see my shortlist develop over the season whilst keeping my investments to a minimum. I have respect for those with the time and money to form their books and guarantee profits but that's not for me anymore.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
This is just my personal approach and I have nothing against alternative views - to each their own.

I don't really have the time or money to tie up vast sums in ante post bets until March. Because of this I don't like to form a book or have multiple runners in every race. I also like the challenge of being able to pick an ante post winner from a small selection of bets on horses I have chosen to follow. I appreciate that forming a book can almost guarantee a reasonable return, but for me it reduces the amount of judgement required as it comes down to the probability of having mass runners at decent prices and takes the skill out of it for me. I also have to put a lot of time into my job that pays the bills and therefore don't have time to keep on top of everything going on in the racing world whilst monitoring twitter and the exchanges.

I do back some horses as singles when I really have a strong opinion but most of my ante post bets are a bit of fun in chasing the dream of a life changer. I take my shortlist of 2-3 horses for the Novice races (these are the best for ant post prices) and place various combination bets when I have spare money or if my opinion goes stronger for any. I've yet to land the life changer (no surprise) but I like to see my shortlist develop over the season whilst keeping my investments to a minimum. I have respect for those with the time and money to form their books and guarantee profits but that's not for me anymore.
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I don't think anyone will take offense to that JM, I was just interested as you seem to have a good grasp of the breeding and some 'less exposed' (handicap?) horses before they run and wondered how you went about it.

I'd love to see with what I know now compared to when I started whether I'd still have a good festival if I limited myself to one for a race, or just backing on the day of the race - I'd like to think so, but I agree it is much harder.

Still plenty of skill in other approaches though, but time-dependant as you say.
 
I hope people have dodged a bullet today with the Samcro 'news' today. (Surprisingly) It has only cost me 3 pts in non runners (all for the RSA) which was my initial strong fancy so I feel I've come out of today pretty well!

I do have Samcro in a lot of "any race" bets/multiples as I am sure many do too, and what I thought was the 'most exciting' of those does is Samcro/Laurina/Altior ANY RACE 25/1...

Disappointingly - you can still get 50/1 for the CH/Mares/CC treble which does render that bet pretty rubbish even at this stage!
 
Kevloaf said:
I hope people have dodged a bullet today with the Samcro 'news' today. (Surprisingly) It has only cost me 3 pts in non runners (all for the RSA) which was my initial strong fancy so I feel I've come out of today pretty well!

I do have Samcro in a lot of "any race" bets/multiples as I am sure many do too, and what I thought was the 'most exciting' of those does is Samcro/Laurina/Altior ANY RACE 25/1...

Disappointingly - you can still get 50/1 for the CH/Mares/CC treble which does render that bet pretty rubbish even at this stage!
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From a racing perspective I would love laurina to line up in the CH but considering I have a few points on the 25/1 treble as well, I wouldn’t mind the mares route.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Crikey he's already 5/2, could be less than 2s if he wins on Friday
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He will be, easy race on Friday. He'll bolt up. Buveur dair out to 4/1 possibly. However I expect at some point BD will be bigger rhan 4/1 as he'll have a lazy run as he did against the new one where he'll have a little scare then Geraghty will have to go for him off the bridle.
 
Here is my updated shortlist of horses I will back in various combinations to chase the dream. I'm not forming a book so if I get it wrong, I won't be chasing more horses to add. Anything in brackets I'm still monitoring pending further information.

Supreme: Annamix, Mister Fisher, (Tokay Dokey).

Ballymore: Brewin’upastorm, Commander Of Fleet, (Tornado Flyer).

Albert Bartlett: (Time To Move On, Gallahers Cross, Good Boy Bobby, Seddon).
I’m holding fire on these as I’m not sure all will head here and Time To Move On may be looked after this season and kept to softer ground.

Triumph: Coeur Sublime, Adjali, (Lethal Steps).

Arkle: Possibly Paloma Blue but struggling for a strong opinion right now.
It could turn out to be an open Arkle this year as there does not seem to be a superstar in the ranks. It would be nice to see a larger field in the Arkle as its one of my least favourite races of the festival due to small fields and the winner usually being head and shoulders above everything else.

JLT: Possibly Mr Whipped but struggling for a strong opinion right now.

RSA: I can’t see past Santini or Next Destination for this, but neither are the price I want.
There is potentially quite a bit of depth in this race so the short prices are even less attractive.

4 miler: Blow By Blow, Chris’s Dream, (It’s All Guesswork).

Bumper: Envoi Allen, The Big Getaway.

Watch list: Downtown Getaway, Alighted, Vision D'Honneur, My Way, Sizing Pottsie.
 
I just saw that Paddy Power have slashed blow by blow for the National hunt chase ,down to 14-1.
Feeling a little bit smug that i got on , On sunday @ 25-1. Also he's unchanged in the R.s.a race .
 
Updated*

Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1

Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1

Champion bumper
Asterion forlonge 33/1



ANY RACE

fenta des obeaux 33/1*

farid 33/1*

Allaho 20/1*

never adapt 33/1*

adjali 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Added Elwood 'any race' today boosted to 27.54 with WH.

A half brother to Delta Work, Gigginstown brought the horse this month from the same connections (Emmanuel Clayeux) as Delta Work came from.

Has had 2 NH Flat races both over 1m 4f, but pedigree (by Martaline) suggests these were going to be too short and of course they were, as he was never nearer both times. He then had his first start over hurdles, which was a complete schooling session in public, the horse looked as though he'd never seen a hurdle before and was held way back in the small field. He got off the mark in his final start in France, winning impressively, from start to finish, staying on really strongly at the end, clearly something that Gigginstown/Elliott liked the look of.

Now, it would be foolish to think he will be as successful for them as Delta Work has worked out, and as with a lot of the French imports that come over, we don't know their full abilities until we see them on a course over here, but he is one I am happy to take a stab at in the hope they go down the handicap route at the festival with him, and lightning strikes twice!

A friend got this one priced up by WH for me, also got him to ask Betfair as well, given their links with the Elliott yard and they told him it was not one they were adding at this moment :confused:
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Entry on Sunday in a 3m Listed Novice Hurdle @ Cork. Gigginstown have 4 entered but this one is Elliotts only entry.

Surprised they will be starting life off in a 3m listed race but he has experience from 2 hurdle runs in France already so likely not a problem, and Cracking Smart won the same race last season, for same connections.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Entry on Sunday in a 3m Listed Novice Hurdle @ Cork. Gigginstown have 4 entered but this one is Elliotts only entry.

Surprised they will be starting life off in a 3m listed race but he has experience from 2 hurdle runs in France already so likely not a problem, and Cracking Smart won the same race last season, for same connections.
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Is he priced up anywhere for the Albert Bartlett?
 
Kevloaf said:
Is he priced up anywhere for the Albert Bartlett?
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As of yet, no, it had crossed my mind after seeing Cracking Smart won this race last season, but the 27.54/1 boost for 'any race' with WH was enough for me to be honest.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As of yet, no, it had crossed my mind after seeing Cracking Smart won this race last season, but the 27.54/1 boost for 'any race' with WH was enough for me to be honest.
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Yeah fair enough. Would be a nice guide ... can't imagine you'd get a wild prove of 50/1 for AB so most likely any race is the way to go!
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah fair enough. Would be a nice guide ... can't imagine you'd get a wild prove of 50/1 for AB so most likely any race is the way to go!
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I'll see if I can get someone to request it :)

Bet365 offered 25/1, but PP offered 100/1 but only by calling their dial-a-bet team, were not going to put it up on their website they said!

I'm happy to go for the 'any race' as I suspect he'll be one for the handicaps, like Delta Work was.
 
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Looks like Footpad could be getting stepped up to 3 miles for the King George.
 
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