Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Big Chac]

I made a book on most of the races last and year and whilst I ended up with profit I was struggling in some of the races because I'm unable to latch on to decent prices sometime due to work.
So I'm going to change it this year and try and have minimal stakes ante post......notice I said "try" haha

 

[Ice]

Champion hurdle - buveur d'air, summerville boy.
Gold cup - presenting percy, might bite.
Stayers - penhill
Rsa - santini, kilbricken storm
Any race - commander of fleet, footpad, blow by blow.
That's it so far.

 

[Kevloaf]

I made a book on most of the races last and year and whilst I ended up with profit I was struggling in some of the races because I'm unable to latch on to decent prices sometime due to work.
So I'm going to change it this year and try and have minimal stakes ante post......notice I said "try" haha

Which races did you struggle on to make a book? (I ask because I have a similar approach and am avoiding certain races, Supreme being the most obvious.)

Brave move to sign up and become active on the forum and aim to have LESS ante-post stakes on

 

[Kevloaf]

Got one to tempt you scooby...

Annamix - Supreme
Getabird - Arkle

314/1


You'll be up for the week by the end of the Arkle, again.

and they're both in pink, guarenteed to be less than 3.14/1 on the day on that fact alone

 

[Kevloaf]

Is Gordon Elliott going to land a magnificent 5-timer on day one of the Cheltenham Festival?

No, obviously... but how fun does this sound.....


Commander of Fleet - Supreme - Elliott has said he's looking like a 2 miler (HUGE hpe horse this year around)

Mengli Khan - Arkle - Again said he's going to be at 2m although poss will try further (but they have LOADS for further and he places in a Supreme on the wrong ground)

Samcro - Champion Hurdle - Obvious contender and the market confidence already needs noting?

Apple's Jade - Mares Hurdle - Was 'in season' last season and goes here to re-claim her crown! The previous C&D is important and main rivals may go elsewhere in a weak divison (bar the top 3 in the betting)

Blow By Blow - National Hunt Chase - Elliott nominates that he could be one for the race and we know it'll have a top jockey... already a festival winner.

Worse 430611/1 shots? :highly_amused:

and if you add in their nap of the week in the cross, Tiger Roll at it is 2153059/1 :highly_amused: PP and BF


4 of them are already festival winners in Samcro, Blow By Blow and Apple's Jade (4 with Tiger Roll) the other is a huge hype horse this season (CoF) and that leaves Mengli Khan in a very open Arkle where you can argue the ground would make a world of difference and the horse is so big that it'll step over fences and improve 15 lbs.



I'm going to bookmark this and see how silly it looks at various parts of the season.

 

[Scooby91]

Got one to tempt you scooby...

Annamix - Supreme
Getabird - Arkle

314/1


You'll be up for the week by the end of the Arkle, again.

and they're both in pink, guarenteed to be less than 3.14/1 on the day on that fact alone

Annamix on his own would already be that one for me, I always try and have one in the 1st 2 races that would turn me a profit for the whole festival but not cost me a fortune. Then a few get out of jail cards in blackbow ballymore, santini rsa, chante neige/ colreevy mares Nov, adjali triumph. Alboum photo gold cup. Dento des obeaux any race. Far too early but ..... they're all winners this far out.

 

[charlie]

Is Gordon Elliott going to land a magnificent 5-timer on day one of the Cheltenham Festival?

No, obviously... but how fun does this sound.....


Commander of Fleet - Supreme - Elliott has said he's looking like a 2 miler (HUGE hpe horse this year around)

Mengli Khan - Arkle - Again said he's going to be at 2m although poss will try further (but they have LOADS for further and he places in a Supreme on the wrong ground)

Samcro - Champion Hurdle - Obvious contender and the market confidence already needs noting?

Apple's Jade - Mares Hurdle - Was 'in season' last season and goes here to re-claim her crown! The previous C&D is important and main rivals may go elsewhere in a weak divison (bar the top 3 in the betting)

Blow By Blow - National Hunt Chase - Elliott nominates that he could be one for the race and we know it'll have a top jockey... already a festival winner.

Worse 430611/1 shots? :highly_amused:

and if you add in their nap of the week in the cross, Tiger Roll at it is 2153059/1 :highly_amused: PP and BF


4 of them are already festival winners in Samcro, Blow By Blow and Apple's Jade (4 with Tiger Roll) the other is a huge hype horse this season (CoF) and that leaves Mengli Khan in a very open Arkle where you can argue the ground would make a world of difference and the horse is so big that it'll step over fences and improve 15 lbs.



I'm going to bookmark this and see how silly it looks at various parts of the season.

Good shout. The Tiger Roll & Blow By Blow double pays 125/1 which I have taken.

 

[somer1]

Just hit into this as i likes it alot!!!
Commander Of Fleet and Samcro both to win any race at "The Fest" 33/1

 

[Native River]

Saw on SkyBet earlier Samcro, Danny Kirwan & Santini all to win any race 300/1, can't help but feel that seems hugely overpriced when compared to the odds they usually offer on requestabets like these!

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

In addition to Umndeni who's inability to jump hurdles means I have likely already done my doe there are two other novice hurdler recruits from smaller stables I have my eye on, both entered for the same race at Cheltenham this Friday. The horses in question are Olly Murphy's Brewin'upastorm and Tom Lacey's Sebastopol. Both horses are highlighted in OJA and JTF as top prospects for the season having won their sole bumper starts stylishly last season.

I expect to back both this week for at least a point in the any race market (both 22s boosted with Hills) and use this week's free bets on Sebastapol for the Supreme (top price 33s) and Brewin'upastorm (top price 33s) for the Ballymore, the latter as mentioned on that thread has already been nibbled at for that race over the last week

 

[Kevloaf]

Saw on SkyBet earlier Samcro, Danny Kirwan & Santini all to win any race 300/1, can't help but feel that seems hugely overpriced when compared to the odds they usually offer on requestabets like these!

I always check these out. Santini 'any race' isn't worth a whole load.... Samcro isn't if he stays hurdling as the target is confirmed (although obviously you'd ALWAYS want the "any race" concession....) but their targets look rock solid?

So those 2 with Danny Kirwin in his novice races are:

Supreme - 1223/1 (Sky)
Ballymore - 768.5/1 (888) or 764/1 (with Fred)
Albert Bartlett - Not quoted!

What would you prefer?

 

[archie]

Given the stable tour comments, I'd say that DK is a slow old boat (like Our Duke ) and wouldn't touch him until he was novice chasing.

 

[archie]

Single 'any race' prices.
2/1 Samcro
10/1 Commander Of Fleet
6/1 Santini
14/1 Danny Kirwan

Makes the Samcro/CoF double 32/1 and the Samcro/DK/Santini treble 314/1.

 

[Kevloaf]

Single 'any race' prices.
2/1 Samcro
10/1 Commander Of Fleet
6/1 Santini
14/1 Danny Kirwan

Makes the Samcro/CoF double 32/1 and the Samcro/DK/Santini treble 314/1.

On the face of it that looks like value BUT

If you'd back Samcro at 2/1 in October for the Champion Hurdle you shouldn't be in control of your own finances

 

[Kevloaf]

Given the stable tour comments, I'd say that DK is a slow old boat (like Our Duke ) and wouldn't touch him until he was novice chasing.

Probably why I like him....

Our Duke
Don Poli
Danny Kirwan

I love them all :highly_amused:

 

[archie]

I'll forgive you Don Poli.:highly_amused:

 

[Thistlecrack]

I see Lethal Steps is showing as the most backed horse on oddschecker for the triumph, looks like hes gone to Gordon Elliott but no mention of him on the stable tour, has anyone heard anything?

 

[Quevega]

I see Lethal Steps is showing as the most backed horse on oddschecker for the triumph, looks like hes gone to Gordon Elliott but no mention of him on the stable tour, has anyone heard anything?

I think he may be the only three year old mentioned on Elliott's stable tour, on ATR. Which may explain the money.

 

[Kevloaf]

I see Lethal Steps is showing as the most backed horse on oddschecker for the triumph, looks like hes gone to Gordon Elliott but no mention of him on the stable tour, has anyone heard anything?

Kevin Blake put him up on the Final Furlong Podcast which is why I imagine there has been some support too.

Cheveley Park Stud bought him for [a lot] and Elliott has two wins in the Triumph in recent years so probably some joining of dots going on there.

One Jump Ahead says he may be more of an Aintree horse - and he's a dual winner on the flat on good ground...

 

[Quevega]

Kevin Blake put him up on the Final Furlong Podcast which is why I imagine there has been some support too.

Cheveley Park Stud bought him for [a lot] and Elliott has two wins in the Triumph in recent years so probably some joining of dots going on there.

One Jump Ahead says he may be more of an Aintree horse - and he's a dual winner on the flat on good ground...

Looked at this horse last week after it popped up on ATR, thought it's flat rating was flattering and breeding suggested good ground and speed, so I left it, but may be interested if he runs it through the winter and it gets a rating for the fred winter, then on to aintree.