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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Surprised you don't have a Topofthegame / Carefully Selected double Sean. If I had two that you've been keenest on it'd be then!

Glad to see Percy and Penhill are already part of your thoughts too.

In fact, bar Summerville Boy I like all of those selections. I don't dislike Summerville Boy, but think Laurina, Samcro and BVD make that race much less appealing and I also love If The Cap Fits!
 
Im happy to have Summerville Boy & Labaik in the CH, think I have all the ground conditions covered there and both previous impressive Supreme winners in my eyes despite not jumping impeccably! Am I right in thinking the Supreme was ran at a very similar pace to the Champion Hurdle in March?

I was all over ITCF’s in the Supreme this year but tbh I have doubts over his makeup with regards injury and personally I think he looked a chaser in the making!
 
What is your view on the Supreme not being a good trial for the Champion Hurdle Sean?

That is something that does get said (with the Ballymore/Neptune often being preferred)

The last horse to win a Supreme that won a Champion Hurdle was Brave Inca in 2006 (came 3rd in 2005 then won in 2006 after winning the 2004 Supreme) - Hors La Loi III also won the Supreme and a CH although 3 years apart.

Prior to that I can't really see one? - My thoughts are that it's incredibly odd considering it is course and distance, AND a lot of horses 'probably' could have won a CH but went chasing... but it's still pretty odd that no winner of the Supreme has followed up in the CH the next season in the last ?

I am not a trends guy at all but this far out it is in the back of my mind ....
 
I’m not one for trends either Kev I usually just go off my visual impression.

But using Melons 2nd to Buveur D’air as a marker re: Labaik I’m happy to take 40/1 and I personally think this years Supreme was a strong renewal despite popular opinion.

Edit: Looking further into the stats from recent years MTOU & Buveur D’air both finished 2nd & 3rd respectively and have proven to be proper 2m specialists. I feel sometimes you need to look at the stats with a little less rigidity to get a balanced look on things. Summerville Boy ran the Supreme in the same time Buveur D'air did (4m 5sec) despite hitting two fences like brick walls!
 
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Labaiks got a few ownership issues at the moment.
 
Yeah he certainly does, I’ll be waiting for those to be (hopefully) ironed out first.
 
See there has been a few quid matched now for CoF in the Ballymore (low as 12s when 16s widely available) and Annamix for the Supreme (as low as 14.5/1 when 20s available). No idea if this means anything but interested to know any thoughts
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
See there has been a few quid matched now for CoF in the Ballymore (low as 12s when 16s widely available) and Annamix for the Supreme (as low as 14.5/1 when 20s available). No idea if this means anything but interested to know any thoughts
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I'd prefer to see the high street bookmaker cutting the prices. Much more likely to 'mean something' at this early stage I'd say.

But what do I know! :highly_amused:
 
Innoko said:
I'd prefer to see the high street bookmaker cutting the prices. Much more likely to 'mean something' at this early stage I'd say.

But what do I know! :highly_amused:
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For sure, but if horses are being backed at a lesser price on the machine (where they also have to pay commission) then it may only be a matter of time before bookies cut their prices. Just not sure if the amounts matched so far are that significant. Good thing about ante post markets is you normally have a bit more time to get on before prices are cut across the board anyway
 
There's hardly any liquidity in the exchange markets so I wouldn't read anything into it. Less than £100 matched at prices below bookies odds
 
Decent bet on Topofthegame today for the R.s.a @ 20-1. .
 
Anyone got an update on Fagan. I see Sky have put him in the Foxhunters at 20/1
 
I had one of those days where everything goes right today, even won a football bet! :highly_amused:

It's best price 51/1 for the Mullins/Sullivan/Walsh combination to mop up in the Mares races at the festival.

Laurina - Mares Hurdle 3/1
Chante Neige - Mares Novice Hurdle 12/1

2 pts on the double at 51/1

I've had enough 'free bets' on Laurina at 14/1 and 12/1 in the CH and Ista may well be right that she ends up here. It is the natural progression from the Mares Novice race and she's already shown she can win at the trip.

Chante Neige has been put up as the owners 'one to follow' and lazy as it is, if they won the race last year, they'll know what it takes. 100% with the right trainer and it isn't hard to see the double being very short 5 months from now... a lot of ifs and buts, but I do love a 'relatable' double
 
Kevloaf said:
What is your view on the Supreme not being a good trial for the Champion Hurdle Sean?

That is something that does get said (with the Ballymore/Neptune often being preferred)

The last horse to win a Supreme that won a Champion Hurdle was Brave Inca in 2006 (came 3rd in 2005 then won in 2006 after winning the 2004 Supreme) - Hors La Loi III also won the Supreme and a CH although 3 years apart.

Prior to that I can't really see one? - My thoughts are that it's incredibly odd considering it is course and distance, AND a lot of horses 'probably' could have won a CH but went chasing... but it's still pretty odd that no winner of the Supreme has followed up in the CH the next season in the last ?

I am not a trends guy at all but this far out it is in the back of my mind ....
Click to expand...

This one surprised me a bit because I had a pre-determined view that the majority of Champion Hurdle winners come through the Neptune/Ballymore, but the stats don't conclusively bear that out.

2017 and 2018 Buveur D'Air - came from Altiors Supreme
2014 Jezki - came from Champage Fever's Supreme
2010 Binocular - came from Captain Cee Bees Supreme (despite being just 4yo)
2007 Sublimity - came from Noland's Supreme
2006 Barave Inca - won 2005 Supreme

So it's true no horse has won the Supreme and gone on to Champion Hurdle glory the following season but the race has produced a good number of winners...
 
Is part of reading for the lack of trend the fact that the Supreme winner recently has been going chasing the year after.

Of the recent placed horses

River Wylde
Altior/Min
Douvan/Shaneshill/Sizing John
Vautour/Josses Hill/Vaniteux
Champagne Fever
Al Ferof/Sprinter Sacre

All went chasing and most subsequently placed the following year
 
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I think that is a massive part of it HF. Altior would have almost certainly been a Champion Hurdle winner had he stayed over timber.
 
Antepost so far in total

Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1

Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1
Carefully selected 25/1

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1

ANY RACE

fenta des obeaux 33/1*

farid 33/1*

Allaho 20/1*

never adapt 33/1*

adjali 20/1* + triumph hurdle 33/1

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1


Updated,
Novice chasers

Claimantakinforgan JLT 33/1
Target is the one if he's good enough, i believe he will be.

Delta Work 16/1 Any race
Iv always liked him and I think his run at punchestown was exceptional,
(should have took 20s, but) I'm happy with 16s as it's Rsa / 4 miler/ handicap, Gordon knows what he's doing.
 
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My list at the moment:

Champion Hurdle
Buveur D'air 3.7/1 (and doubled with Tiger Roll from last season's GN)
Samcro 8/1 & 7/1
If The Cap Fits 40/1

Gold Cup
Presenting Percy 13/2 & 6/1 (& last leg of a treble with 8/1 & 12/1 winners)

Ryanair
Monalee 16/1

Stayers
Penhill 8/1

Mares
Apples Jade 11/2

Supreme
Tornado Flyer 25/1

Ballymore
Commander of Fleet 22/1

RSA
Togofthegame 28/1

JLT
Black Op 12/1
Kalashnikov 28/1

Mares Novice
Chante Neige 12/1

Champion Bumper
Energumene 50/1

Any Race
Samcro 11/4
OK Corral 27/1
Santini 13/1
Farid 36/1
Danny Kirwan 15/1

I think that's all the singles......
 
I’ve made a spreadsheet for the first time to track my bets

Just wondering if anyone has any idea how I can use it to calculate returns on lucky 15s /Yankees?
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’ve made a spreadsheet for the first time to track my bets

Just wondering if anyone has any idea how I can use it to calculate returns on lucky 15s /Yankees?
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I think it is possible but it requires quite a complicated spreadsheet. You'll need a column for each selection, then additional columns for price and finishing position. You should be able to use an 'IF' formula to calculate returns based on how many of your selections win.

I just manually input my returns for these type of bets HF.
 
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