• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Ron said:
My banker for the meeting was Apples Jade at 11/10 (taken in our Punter of the Year comp on 5th Jan). I think that price has gone now. I would be more than happy to lay Samcro if the ground is better than soft. Probably won't win anyway. Prefer Next Destination in that race but I like Cracking Smart ew at 33/1. Seems to be getting stronger, based on his latest run behind Next Destination and come Cheltenham may have improved enough to get past him up the hill
Click to expand...

Personally I think Samcro will have won this race before Next Destination and Cracking Smart even started to race each other up the hill, but that won't happen as CS will be in the AB...
 
Ron said:
My banker for the meeting was Apples Jade at 11/10 (taken in our Punter of the Year comp on 5th Jan). I think that price has gone now. I would be more than happy to lay Samcro if the ground is better than soft. Probably won't win anyway. Prefer Next Destination in that race but I like Cracking Smart ew at 33/1. Seems to be getting stronger, based on his latest run behind Next Destination and come Cheltenham may have improved enough to get past him up the hill
Click to expand...

‘Probably won’t win anyway’. On what formline is he ‘probable’ to not win. Everything he’s done has been a demolition job.

Cracking Smart wins the Albert Bartlett so save your cash for that race instead. No chance he takes on Samcro in the Ballymore.
 
Kevloaf said:
IF you're keen on MElon not being out of the 3, would you not consider the "without" market for him (and perhaps Brain Power too)?

I'm never a fan of 'each way' value if I don't think the horse can win on merit. I like the "without" markets although, I couldn't tell you if I do well in them as they're quite rare to use in multiples.
Click to expand...

I have to admit i never even thought of the without markets. fantastic idea thank you. i will have a look and see if i can find something to put together.
 
Does anybody know how to find out what prices horses were historically....

FOr example, I want to know what price Coo Star Sivola was 48 hours BEFORE his run last year. I can obviously see the SP.... but I want to know (if possible) and analyse what money came late and what prices were available (with a view to finding prices that WILL shorten).

Long shot..as I have never heard of this data being available... other than me starting to collate it myself with a view to next year.
 
Can I ask a stupid question, I have been backing horses at cheltenham for many many many years but mostly if not all he graded races, when is it worth backing the handicap races? I fancy a few of them this year but last year I back a number of them and most did not turn up or ran in another race lucky NRNB will hill insurance..

I am holding back on a lucky 63 mainly because I have no clue what race they will be in this year but the longer I wait the lower the price I will get..

Is it a case of waiting till the Decs for the handicaps and miss a good price or take a punt??
 
I have an horrific record in the handicaps SB but, and take this at face value, if you are fortunate to have a selection of accounts, then wait until the day when the offer frenzy begins.
Races like the bumper and cross country are, by rule, 1,2,3, places and 1/5 place terms, but with fields of 20ish most will go 4 places and maybe some even 5 and 1/4 place terms.

You'll always get your plots and plunges but there will be a host of horses that are a bigger price on the morning of their race than they are a few days before...
 
Istabraq said:
I have an horrific record in the handicaps SB but, and take this at face value, if you are fortunate to have a selection of accounts, then wait until the day when the offer frenzy begins.
Races like the bumper and cross country are, by rule, 1,2,3, places and 1/5 place terms, but with fields of 20ish most will go 4 places and maybe some even 5 and 1/4 place terms.

You'll always get your plots and plunges but there will be a host of horses that are a bigger price on the morning of their race than they are a few days before...
Click to expand...

Thanks that is helpful, I will wait until the Tuesday, I can not see any of mine being a plot horse as most are around 10s to 16s already and I would not take much shorter odds in a 20 field handicap anyway..
 
Sirbetalot said:
Thanks that is helpful, I will wait until the Tuesday, I can not see any of mine being a plot horse as most are around 10s to 16s already and I would not take much shorter odds in a 20 field handicap anyway..
Click to expand...

Personally try and leave handicaps as late as I can..... there will be some OBVIOUS short prices on the day that you've MISSED but they don't all win... and handicaps are hard enough anyway, without the element of getting them there.

Bookies tke NO chances when NRNB in handicaps.... IMO you're best waiting most of the time.

However, you'll see I back ante post in handicaps still...:devilish:
 
Sirbetalot said:
Can I ask a stupid question, I have been backing horses at cheltenham for many many many years but mostly if not all he graded races, when is it worth backing the handicap races? I fancy a few of them this year but last year I back a number of them and most did not turn up or ran in another race lucky NRNB will hill insurance..

I am holding back on a lucky 63 mainly because I have no clue what race they will be in this year but the longer I wait the lower the price I will get..

Is it a case of waiting till the Decs for the handicaps and miss a good price or take a punt??
Click to expand...

I've used NRNB in the last few years with the handicaps, even before entries and weights are out, this year was even earlier.
The pertemps, fred winter and Novice handicp chase are particularly good for this as it is easier to narrow down the likely shorter prices.
I have Glenloe at 25 and Louis vac pouch at 20 and these weren't hard to spot from December of last year
I had Percy at 33's last year and barney dwan 50s each way and Mall Dini at 40's yr before.
I generally will play 3 or 4 in each handicap so will leave one or two options till nearer the day (morning of the race)
The close brothers I have rather be 16 divine spear 20 and De Plotting Shed 14.
fred winter - Act of valour 22 nube negra 20 and king of may 33.
Got Nutted last year having had max bet on divin bear, also had max bet on storyteller at 14s for martin pipe and was gutted when it was pulled out injurd.
Last year I had 2 balloted out due to handicapper in close brothers but got 20s on Tully East.
I generally look for cheltenham types/ as in owner (tully east) - trainer - horse having run at festival before etc.
This year being able to cash bets out on b365 has been even better than ever.
Not had the best luck with other handicaps although the kim muir is all about the jockeys.

I spend a hell of a lot of time going through each entry and looking for likely types. (good four hours a day from mid Jan onwards)
It's a hobby.
 
Hi guys, my first post on here. I've been following this forum for the last two years, basically because its the only one I've found where people aren't embedded half way up their own a##e. Good luck to you all. I've been at the festival the last three years, but unfortunately I own my own business and I'm shackled to that this year. Betting wise I've kept fairly quiet this year. But that'll no doubt change over the next week . May the racing gods be kind to you all.
 
Just put 2U on the banker four fold for Tuesday

I can’t see myself backing Footpad or BDA on the day but wouldn’t want to miss out if it did come in

Pays a shade under 14/1 on betfair
 
Good to know quevega. Have you not heard of "sticking a pin in the paper?" :highly_amused:

Some very good looking selections there too at this stage!
 
ricksen1 said:
Hi guys, my first post on here. I've been following this forum for the last two years, basically because its the only one I've found where people aren't embedded half way up their own a##e. Good luck to you all. I've been at the festival the last three years, but unfortunately I own my own business and I'm shackled to that this year. Betting wise I've kept fairly quiet this year. But that'll no doubt change over the next week . May the racing gods be kind to you all.
Click to expand...

Welcome to the forum Ricksen. Nice to see you've taken the plunge :)

1. Worst bet so far?
2. Horse you're looking forward to seeing the most?
3. Best bet you've had so far?
 
Holy moley

First year doing antepost.

I’ve got 57 points staked - not including free bets and non runners that have already been removed (Annamix 3U)

Small potatoes compared to some of the layouts here but that is actually ridiculous looking back and counting up. My missus would go mental!
 
Hurricane fly said:
Small potatoes compared to some of the layouts here but that is actually ridiculous looking back and counting up. My missus would go mental!
Click to expand...

Further proof, if any were needed, that honesty in a marriage is overated....
 
Istabraq said:
Further proof, if any were needed, that honesty in a marriage is overated....
Click to expand...

Not telling the missus how much has been gambled - it's a man's prerogative!
 
Diese des Bieffes has looked a plot horse to me this season... mark of 137 looks very workable, every chance will not get into Coral Cup of that mark and yard have powerful looking bullets in William Henry etc for race.. So keen on this for Martin Pipe race @20/1 EW

Other hcaps... William Henry Coral Cup (Novice hurdle form reads very well, and always highly regarded...
Nube Negra Fred Winter Another that looks to have been put away for handicap grade, travelled very well behind the potentially top drawer Apples Shakira (out of the prolific sire of young high quality nh horses Saddler Maker (sadly deceased) Much like DDB can see this going off at half the current price come the off..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom