jonthehammer
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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets
- Thread starter Istabraq
- Start date
TheEagleHasLanded
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Just a small speculative life changer placed this morning, based on the noise on here
0.05pts e/way L63 - Singlefarmpayment (Ultima), Impulsive Star (NH Chase), Hollowgraphic (Bumper), Laurina (Mares' Novice), Stormy Ireland (Triumph) & Burning Ambition (Foxhunters).
Bit of fun, as most of my big early ante post multiples are dead already :sorrow:
Yeah nice I like that, just done the same bet and if it comes in everyone in the forum gets a pint lol
News in that Presenting Percy will go RSA and Mall Dini goes 4m. I wonder if Davey Russell will ride Monalee or Percy in the RSA ?
Middle_Of_March
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I’ve just done:
If The Cap Fits - Supreme
Cause of Causes - X Country
Hollowgraphic - Bumper
Apples Shakira - Triumph
Burning Ambition - Foxhunters
10,500/1
If The Cap Fits - Supreme
Cause of Causes - X Country
Hollowgraphic - Bumper
Apples Shakira - Triumph
Burning Ambition - Foxhunters
10,500/1
ComplyOrDie
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SeanRock
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I don't see why HdB would run Monalee over 2m 5 at the festival when his best form last year was over 3m in the AB. If the grounds soft that may have an impact. Monalee was well beaten almost 4 lengths by Death Duty over 2m 4 at Navan last year. If Davy is riding Presenting Percy DJ Mullins may get his leg back over Monalee in the RSA (if that's the route he goes).
kinloch brae
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This is a list of all my ante post bets so far. Rather than going into individual threads I will put a bit of working on this thread.
Supreme - Real Steel 20/1
Terrible race for me and this one is unlikely to change things. Inexplicably lost ground early last time and then rushed up too quickly. Looked to be toiling when taking a nasty fall. Seems as if he will be given another chance but I am not hopeful. Not at all tempted by Getabird at current prices.
Arkle - Footpad 10/1 & Sceau Royal 8/1 (both EW)
Sceau Royal has the form and Footpad has the style. Hard to see past both of them.
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'Air 5/1
Stepped in when Hills pushed him out. Not worried at all by a horse who couldn't beat a poorly ridden Arctic Fire by less than two lengths and that was in his prime. I think Buveur D'Air was always going to be much too good for him. Just a concern that Geraghty might be a shade over confident as he was at Kempton.
National Hunt Chase - Ms Parfois 20/1 (EW NRNBG)
Probably needs to find 7lbs but is progressive and has some course form. The longer trip might well be a plus. Race looks up for grabs.
Ballymore - On The Blind Side 12/1
Like many I thought this was an Albert Bartlett horse after Cheltenham but his subsequent win at Sandown is arguably the best piece of novice form and I couldn't miss him here. Hopefully, the setback has just given him a nice break. Samcro is the one who has to step up, particularly with the likely quicker ground being an unknown.
RSA - Presenting Percy 12/1
If he were mine I would be thinking seriously about the Gold Cup so very disappointing if he doesn't figure here. A hold up horse he will obviously need some luck in running.
Fred Winter - Mitchouka 16/1 (NRNB)
Not quite up to winning a Triumph but travels and jumps well so might be up to defying a big weight.
Bumper - Didtheyleaveuoutto 10/1
Most impressive bumper winner of the season. Would be clear favourite if he were trained by Mullins.
JLT - Saint Calvados 25/1 (EW NRNBG)
Two impressive wins at Newbury but he can't beat the front two in the Arkle. The JLT is up for grabs and he would surely find it far easier to try and dominate this field. If he stays has every chance.
Pertemps - Black Ivory 14/1 (EW NRNB)
Progressing nicely and value for more than the official verdict at Warwick. Hectic pace at Cheltenham should suit.
Ryanair - Waiting Patiently 10/1
Another progressive Jefferson horse. On the Kempton performance alone he could easily be favourite. Not at all worried by Un De Sceaux who beat a Grade 2 horse and a handicapper last year.
Stayers - The Worlds End 25/1 (EW) & Thomas Campbell 25/1 (EW NRNBG)
Big weekend for these two. They don't have to win (as the ground will almost certainly be totally different in March) but fingers crossed for some promise of better to come. The Worlds End is my preferred of the two. He hasn't got that much to find on Sam Spinner and the likely better ground should be a big help. Thomas Campbell ran a strange race at Ascot but did similar last year. He is 3/4 at Cheltenham.
Mares Novices - Marias Benefit 10/1
Hard not to be impressed with her demolition job. Clearly very useful but can she dominate a much bigger field on a stiffer track?
Triumph - Espoir D'Allen 14/1
I think he has done enough to be favourite for the Triumph. The race at Leopardstown is looking to be quite a stiff task and I wonder whether it might have been better to give him a rest prior to Cheltenham. He doesn't shape as if he needs any further experience.
Albert Bartlett - On The Blind Side 20/1
If he is on song this race would look his for the taking. Henderson did switch Bobs Worth at the last minute but it seems unlikely it will happen again.
Gold Cup - Presenting Percy 50/1
A bit of a flyer but I doubt you would get 12/1 if he were priced up for this.
Martin Pipe - Minds Eye 16/1 (EW NRNBG)
Gigginstown usually throw something decent at this and he looks as likely as any at this stage.
So quite happy, other than Real Steel and having to cover a couple of races. Fingers crossed most, if not all, get there.
Good luck.
Supreme - Real Steel 20/1
Terrible race for me and this one is unlikely to change things. Inexplicably lost ground early last time and then rushed up too quickly. Looked to be toiling when taking a nasty fall. Seems as if he will be given another chance but I am not hopeful. Not at all tempted by Getabird at current prices.
Arkle - Footpad 10/1 & Sceau Royal 8/1 (both EW)
Sceau Royal has the form and Footpad has the style. Hard to see past both of them.
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'Air 5/1
Stepped in when Hills pushed him out. Not worried at all by a horse who couldn't beat a poorly ridden Arctic Fire by less than two lengths and that was in his prime. I think Buveur D'Air was always going to be much too good for him. Just a concern that Geraghty might be a shade over confident as he was at Kempton.
National Hunt Chase - Ms Parfois 20/1 (EW NRNBG)
Probably needs to find 7lbs but is progressive and has some course form. The longer trip might well be a plus. Race looks up for grabs.
Ballymore - On The Blind Side 12/1
Like many I thought this was an Albert Bartlett horse after Cheltenham but his subsequent win at Sandown is arguably the best piece of novice form and I couldn't miss him here. Hopefully, the setback has just given him a nice break. Samcro is the one who has to step up, particularly with the likely quicker ground being an unknown.
RSA - Presenting Percy 12/1
If he were mine I would be thinking seriously about the Gold Cup so very disappointing if he doesn't figure here. A hold up horse he will obviously need some luck in running.
Fred Winter - Mitchouka 16/1 (NRNB)
Not quite up to winning a Triumph but travels and jumps well so might be up to defying a big weight.
Bumper - Didtheyleaveuoutto 10/1
Most impressive bumper winner of the season. Would be clear favourite if he were trained by Mullins.
JLT - Saint Calvados 25/1 (EW NRNBG)
Two impressive wins at Newbury but he can't beat the front two in the Arkle. The JLT is up for grabs and he would surely find it far easier to try and dominate this field. If he stays has every chance.
Pertemps - Black Ivory 14/1 (EW NRNB)
Progressing nicely and value for more than the official verdict at Warwick. Hectic pace at Cheltenham should suit.
Ryanair - Waiting Patiently 10/1
Another progressive Jefferson horse. On the Kempton performance alone he could easily be favourite. Not at all worried by Un De Sceaux who beat a Grade 2 horse and a handicapper last year.
Stayers - The Worlds End 25/1 (EW) & Thomas Campbell 25/1 (EW NRNBG)
Big weekend for these two. They don't have to win (as the ground will almost certainly be totally different in March) but fingers crossed for some promise of better to come. The Worlds End is my preferred of the two. He hasn't got that much to find on Sam Spinner and the likely better ground should be a big help. Thomas Campbell ran a strange race at Ascot but did similar last year. He is 3/4 at Cheltenham.
Mares Novices - Marias Benefit 10/1
Hard not to be impressed with her demolition job. Clearly very useful but can she dominate a much bigger field on a stiffer track?
Triumph - Espoir D'Allen 14/1
I think he has done enough to be favourite for the Triumph. The race at Leopardstown is looking to be quite a stiff task and I wonder whether it might have been better to give him a rest prior to Cheltenham. He doesn't shape as if he needs any further experience.
Albert Bartlett - On The Blind Side 20/1
If he is on song this race would look his for the taking. Henderson did switch Bobs Worth at the last minute but it seems unlikely it will happen again.
Gold Cup - Presenting Percy 50/1
A bit of a flyer but I doubt you would get 12/1 if he were priced up for this.
Martin Pipe - Minds Eye 16/1 (EW NRNBG)
Gigginstown usually throw something decent at this and he looks as likely as any at this stage.
So quite happy, other than Real Steel and having to cover a couple of races. Fingers crossed most, if not all, get there.
Good luck.
The Beast
Banned
My observation but here are a few horses if trained by messrs Mullins ,Henderson , Elliott or Nicholls would be shorter in betting.
If the cap fits
Didthey leaveuoutto
Waiting patiently
Sam Spinner
Espoir Dallen
Marias benefit
If the cap fits
Didthey leaveuoutto
Waiting patiently
Sam Spinner
Espoir Dallen
Marias benefit
kinloch brae
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Maybe, it is justified, we will see. Personally, I like to see things shared around, particularly if I have backed them!
With Jefferson it is perhaps his reputation of taking things gradually but there comes a time when it is worth having a crack. Neither of the two horses I have mentioned should be unduly worried by good to soft ground. I would be more concerned that they would be having their first runs at Cheltenham but who knows they might enjoy the track? Clearly Corals in offering 10/1 Waiting Patiently are hoping he won't turn up.
With Jefferson it is perhaps his reputation of taking things gradually but there comes a time when it is worth having a crack. Neither of the two horses I have mentioned should be unduly worried by good to soft ground. I would be more concerned that they would be having their first runs at Cheltenham but who knows they might enjoy the track? Clearly Corals in offering 10/1 Waiting Patiently are hoping he won't turn up.
Deffinately the ground with waiting patiently. It's more likely he won't run than will. With previous conditions on the Thursday. But obviously I can't guess the weather for sure.
ComplyOrDie
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SeanRock
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What a big day performer he was, big blow for Jonjo whose stable is looking increasingly light on top drawer animals. Rumours in Ireland that Joseph O'Brien may be moving over to Jackdaws in the near future.
kinloch brae
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Does that mean someone is going to suggest that Jonjo takes 'early retirement'?
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Gutted about Taquin Du Seuil.
My first ever visit to Cheltenham was the Thursday in 2014.
I backed him in the JLT (the first race), which he won.
Backing the winner in my first race at the Fez got me hooked and he was always a special horse for me after that.
R.I.P.
My first ever visit to Cheltenham was the Thursday in 2014.
I backed him in the JLT (the first race), which he won.
Backing the winner in my first race at the Fez got me hooked and he was always a special horse for me after that.
R.I.P.
mayo
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Defi Du Seuil @ 10.00 with BDA
Unowhatimeanharry @ 11.00
Un De Sceaux @ 3.50
Apple's Shakira @ 4.00
Willoughby Court @ 5.00 JLT
Brain Power @ 11.00 Arkle
Jer's Girl @ 11.00 without AJ
Minella Rocco @ 15.00
Goliath, 247 bets * £0.10 E/W
Unowhatimeanharry @ 11.00
Un De Sceaux @ 3.50
Apple's Shakira @ 4.00
Willoughby Court @ 5.00 JLT
Brain Power @ 11.00 Arkle
Jer's Girl @ 11.00 without AJ
Minella Rocco @ 15.00
Goliath, 247 bets * £0.10 E/W
mayo
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I would be shocked if that happened. Joseph has been able to send out a Melbourne Cup winner from current yard and always had the impressions O'Briens are a very close family.